Empirical forecasting practices of a British university

This article is based on a single case study aimed at examining behavioral issues of forecasting, in particular the role and practice of forecasting in a British university settings. Key variables were identified in establishing associations between the variables that provide suitable criteria for the purpose of this study. Data collection was based on questionnaires distributed to people involved and interviews which were held with prominent staff of the University. Fisher-exact tests were performed to identify significant associations between variables. Results indicated the various levels of perceptions and practices of forecasting produced by the people involved at the University. The study implies that useful insights can be gathered through forecasting from a different perspective of the non-profit making service industry

Attachment styles as predictors of Facebook-related jealousy and surveillance in romantic relationships

This is the post-print of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the link below - Copyright @ 2012 John Wiley & SonsFacebook has become ubiquitous over the past five years, yet few studies have examined its role within romantic relationships. In two studies, we tested attachment anxiety and avoidance as predictors of Facebook-related jealousy and surveillance (i.e., checking a romantic partner’s Facebook page). Study 1 found that anxiety was positively associated, and avoidance negatively associated, with Facebook jealousy and surveillance. The association of anxiety with Facebook jealousy was mediated in part by lower trust. Study 2 replicated this finding, and daily diary results further showed that over a one-week period, anxiety was positively associated, and avoidance negatively associated, with Facebook surveillance. The association of anxiety with greater surveillance was mediated in part by daily experiences of jealousy

Nucleate pool boiling investigation on a silicon test section with micro-fabricated cavities

The basic mechanisms of nucleate boiling are still not completely understood, in spite of the many numerical and experimental studies dedicated to the topic. The use of a hybrid code allows reasonable computational times for simulations of a solid plate with a large population of artificial micro-cavities with fixed distribution. This paper analyses the guidelines for the design, through numerical simulations, of the location and sizes of micro-fabricated cavities on a new silicon test section immersed in FC-72 at the saturation temperature for different pressures with an imposed heat flux applied at the back of the plate. Particular focus is on variations of wall temperature around nucleation sites

An adaptive space-time phase field formulation for dynamic fracture of brittle shells based on LR NURBS

We present an adaptive space-time phase field formulation for dynamic fracture of brittle shells. Their deformation is characterized by the Kirchhoff–Love thin shell theory using a curvilinear surface description. All kinematical objects are defined on the shell’s mid-plane. The evolution equation for the phase field is determined by the minimization of an energy functional based on Griffith’s theory of brittle fracture. Membrane and bending contributions to the fracture process are modeled separately and a thickness integration is established for the latter. The coupled system consists of two nonlinear fourth-order PDEs and all quantities are defined on an evolving two-dimensional manifold. Since the weak form requires C1-continuity, isogeometric shape functions are used. The mesh is adaptively refined based on the phase field using Locally Refinable (LR) NURBS. Time is discretized based on a generalized-α method using adaptive time-stepping, and the discretized coupled system is solved with a monolithic Newton–Raphson scheme. The interaction between surface deformation and crack evolution is demonstrated by several numerical examples showing dynamic crack propagation and branching

An algorithm to identify rheumatoid arthritis in primary care: a Clinical Practice Research Datalink study

Objective: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a multisystem, inflammatory disorder associated with increased levels of morbidity and mortality. While much research into the condition is conducted in the secondary care setting, routinely collected primary care databases provide an important source of research data. This study aimed to update an algorithm to define RA that was previously developed and validated in the General Practice Research Database (GPRD). Methods: The original algorithm consisted of two criteria. Individuals meeting at least one were considered to have RA. Criterion 1:≥1 RA Read code and a disease modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) without an alternative indication. Criterion 2:≥2RA Read codes, with at least one 'strong' code and no alternative diagnoses. Lists of codes for consultations and prescriptions were obtained from the authors of the original algorithm where these were available, or compiled based on the original description and clinical knowledge. 4161 people with a first Read code for RA between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2012 were selected from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD, successor to the GPRD), and the criteria applied. Results: Code lists were updated for the introduction of new Read codes and biological DMARDs. 3577/ 4161 (86%) of people met the updated algorithm for RA, compared to 61% in the original development study. 62.8% of people fulfilled both Criterion 1 and Criterion 2. Conclusions: Those wishing to define RA in the CPRD, should consider using this updated algorithm, rather than a single RA code, if they wish to identify only those who are most likely to have RA

Remarks on the k-error linear complexity of p(n)-periodic sequences

Recently the first author presented exact formulas for the number of 2ⁿn-periodic binary sequences with given 1-error linear complexity, and an exact formula for the expected 1-error linear complexity and upper and lower bounds for the expected k-error linear complexity, k >2, of a random 2ⁿn-periodic binary sequence. A crucial role for the analysis played the Chan-Games algorithm. We use a more sophisticated generalization of the Chan-Games algorithm by Ding et al. to obtain exact formulas for the counting function and the expected value for the 1-error linear complexity for pⁿn-periodic sequences over Fp, p prime. Additionally we discuss the calculation of lower and upper bounds on the k-error linear complexity of pⁿn-periodic sequences over Fp

An exploration of social and economic outcome and associated health-related quality of life after critical illness in general intensive care unit survivors: a 12-month follow-up study.

INTRODUCTION: The socio-economic impact of critical illnesses on patients and their families in Europe has yet to be determined. The aim of this exploratory study was to estimate changes in family circumstances, social and economic stability, care requirements and access to health services for patients during their first 12 months after ICU discharge. METHODS: Multi-center questionnaire-based study of survivors of critical illness at 6 and 12 months after ICU discharge. RESULTS: Data for 293 consenting patients who spent greater than 48 hours in one of 22 UK ICUs were obtained at 6 and 12 months post-ICU discharge. There was little evidence of a change in accommodation or relationship status between pre-admission and 12 months following discharge from an ICU. A negative impact on family income was reported by 33% of all patients at 6 months and 28% at 12 months. There was nearly a 50% reduction in the number of patients who reported employment as their sole source of income at 12 months (19% to 11%) compared with pre-admission. One quarter of patients reported themselves in need of care assistance at 6 months and 22% at 12 months. The majority of care was provided by family members (80% and 78%, respectively), for half of whom there was a negative impact on employment. Amongst all patients receiving care, 26% reported requiring greater than 50 hours a week. Following discharge, 79% of patients reported attending their primary care physician and 44% had seen a community nurse. Mobility problems nearly doubled between pre-admission and 6 months (32% to 64%). Furthermore, 73% reported moderate or severe pain at 12 months and 44% remained significantly anxious or depressed. CONCLUSIONS: Survivors of critical illness in the UK face a negative impact on employment and commonly have a care requirement after discharge from hospital. This has a corresponding negative impact on family income. The majority of the care required is provided by family members. This effect was apparent by 6 months and had not materially improved by 12 months. This exploratory study has identified the potential for a significant socio-economic burden following critical illness

Men with broken condoms: Who and why?

This is an open access article - Copyright @ 2007 BMJ Publishing GroupObjectives: To identify (1) the prevalence of condom breakage, and demographic and sexuality-related differences among young men who have sex with women reporting and not reporting this event; (2) condom-specific behaviours associated with breakage. Methods: Young men (n=278) attending a clinic for treatment of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) responded to an anonymous questionnaire aided by a CD recording of the questions. The samples were screened to include only men who had used a condom during penile–vaginal sex at least three times in the past 3 months. Condom-specific behaviours (including breakage) were assessed using these last three acts of condom use as the recall period. Correlates achieving bivariate significance were subjected to multivariate analysis. Results: Nearly one third (31.3%) of the men reported recent breakage. The breakage rate was 15%. Three correlates significantly distinguished between men who did and did not report breakage. Men who had past STIs were more likely to report breakage (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.08), as were men who also reported condom slippage (AOR 2.72). Less self-efficacy for correct condom use was also significantly associated with breakage (AOR 1.07). Further, three condom-specific behaviours were significantly associated with breakage: allowing condoms to contact sharp objects (AOR 2.6), experiencing problems with the “fit or feel” of condoms (AOR 2.3) and not squeezing air from the receptacle tip (AOR 2.0). Conclusions: Breakage may be common and may occur in a larger context of difficulties with condoms. STI clinics could potentially benefit some men by providing instructions on the correct use of condoms.Financial Support for this project was provided by the Rural Center for AIDS/STD Prevention, a joint project of Indiana University, University of Colorado and University of Kentucky, and the Office of the Associate Dean of Research, School of Health, Physical Education, and Recreation, Indiana University