Identifying Complex Dynamics in Social Systems: A New Methodological Approach Applied to Study School Segregation

It is widely recognized that segregation processes are often the result of complex nonlinear dynamics. Empirical analyses of complex dynamics are however rare, because there is a lack of appropriate empirical modeling techniques that are capable of capturing complex patterns and nonlinearities. At the same time, we know that many social phenomena display nonlinearities. In this article, we introduce a new modeling tool in order to partly fill this void in the literature. Using data of all secondary schools in Stockholm county during the years 1990 to 2002, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied to identify complex dynamic patterns like tipping points and multiple phase transitions with respect to segregation. We establish critical thresholds in schools’ ethnic compositions, in general, and in relation to various factors such as school quality and parents’ income, at which the schools are likely to tip and become increasingly segregated

Identifying Complex Dynamics in Social Systems: A New Methodological Approach Applied to Study School Segregation

It is widely recognized that segregation processes are often the result of complex nonlinear dynamics. Empirical analyses of complex dynamics are however rare, because there is a lack of appropriate empirical modeling techniques that are capable of capturing complex patterns and nonlinearities. At the same time, we know that many social phenomena display nonlinearities. In this article, we introduce a new modeling tool in order to partly fill this void in the literature. Using data of all secondary schools in Stockholm county during the years 1990 to 2002, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied to identify complex dynamic patterns like tipping points and multiple phase transitions with respect to segregation. We establish critical thresholds in schools’ ethnic compositions, in general, and in relation to various factors such as school quality and parents’ income, at which the schools are likely to tip and become increasingly segregated

The effects of user characteristics on query performance in the presence of information request ambiguity

This paper investigates the effects of personality characteristics on individuals' abilities to compose queries from information requests containing various types of ambiguity. In particular, this research examines the effects of user personality characteristics on query performance in the presence of information requests that contained no extraneous, syntactic, or both extraneous and syntactic ambiguities. The results indicate that personality characteristics significantly affect users' abilities to compose accurate queries. Neuroticism, agreeableness, openness to experience, and conscientiousness significantly affected the number of errors made in the query formulations. Conscientiousness affected the length of time taken to compose the queries and neuroticism affected the confidence users had in the accuracy of their queries. Although several personality dimensions affected query performance, no significant interactions between personality dimensions and ambiguity were detected. Furthermore, both query complexity and information request ambiguity exhibited greater impacts on query performance than personality characteristics. Hence, organizations should attempt to train users to deal with query complexity and information request ambiguity before modifying their training programs for personality characteristics

Dose response of the 16p11.2 distal copy number variant on intracranial volume and basal ganglia.

Carriers of large recurrent copy number variants (CNVs) have a higher risk of developing neurodevelopmental disorders. The 16p11.2 distal CNV predisposes carriers to e.g., autism spectrum disorder and schizophrenia. We compared subcortical brain volumes of 12 16p11.2 distal deletion and 12 duplication carriers to 6882 non-carriers from the large-scale brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging collaboration, ENIGMA-CNV. After stringent CNV calling procedures, and standardized FreeSurfer image analysis, we found negative dose-response associations with copy number on intracranial volume and on regional caudate, pallidum and putamen volumes (β = -0.71 to -1.37; P < 0.0005). In an independent sample, consistent results were obtained, with significant effects in the pallidum (β = -0.95, P = 0.0042). The two data sets combined showed significant negative dose-response for the accumbens, caudate, pallidum, putamen and ICV (P = 0.0032, 8.9 × 10-6, 1.7 × 10-9, 3.5 × 10-12 and 1.0 × 10-4, respectively). Full scale IQ was lower in both deletion and duplication carriers compared to non-carriers. This is the first brain MRI study of the impact of the 16p11.2 distal CNV, and we demonstrate a specific effect on subcortical brain structures, suggesting a neuropathological pattern underlying the neurodevelopmental syndromes

A mechanistic model of infection: why duration and intensity of contacts should be included in models of disease spread

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mathematical models and simulations of disease spread often assume a constant per-contact transmission probability. This assumption ignores the heterogeneity in transmission probabilities, e.g. due to the varying intensity and duration of potentially contagious contacts. Ignoring such heterogeneities might lead to erroneous conclusions from simulation results. In this paper, we show how a mechanistic model of disease transmission differs from this commonly used assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We present an exposure-based, mechanistic model of disease transmission that reflects heterogeneities in contact duration and intensity. Based on empirical contact data, we calculate the expected number of secondary cases induced by an infector (i) for the mechanistic model and (ii) under the classical assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability. The results of both approaches are compared for different basic reproduction numbers <it>R</it>₀.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The outcomes of the mechanistic model differ significantly from those of the assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability. In particular, cases with many different contacts have much lower expected numbers of secondary cases when using the mechanistic model instead of the common assumption. This is due to the fact that the proportion of long, intensive contacts decreases in the contact dataset with an increasing total number of contacts.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The importance of highly connected individuals, so-called super-spreaders, for disease spread seems to be overestimated when a constant per-contact transmission probability is assumed. This holds particularly for diseases with low basic reproduction numbers. Simulations of disease spread should weight contacts by duration and intensity.</p

Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal MRI Brain Scans Reveal Accelerated Brain Aging in Multiple Sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory disorder of the central nervous system. By combining longitudinal MRI-based brain morphometry and brain age estimation using machine learning, we tested the hypothesis that MS patients have higher brain age relative to chronological age than healthy controls (HC) and that longitudinal rate of brain aging in MS patients is associated with clinical course and severity. Seventy-six MS patients [71% females, mean age 34.8 years (range 21–49) at inclusion] were examined with brain MRI at three time points with a mean total follow up period of 4.4 years (±0.4 years). We used additional cross-sectional MRI data from 235 HC for case-control comparison. We applied a machine learning model trained on an independent set of 3,208 HC to estimate individual brain age and to calculate the difference between estimated and chronological age, termed brain age gap (BAG). We also assessed the longitudinal change rate in BAG in individuals with MS. MS patients showed significantly higher BAG (4.4 ± 6.6 years) compared to HC (Cohen's D = 0.69, p = 4.0 × 10−6). Longitudinal estimates of BAG in MS patients showed high reliability and suggested an accelerated rate of brain aging corresponding to an annual increase of 0.41 (SE = 0.15) years compared to chronological aging (p = 0.008). Multiple regression analyses revealed higher rate of brain aging in patients with more brain atrophy (Cohen's D = 0.86, p = 4.3 × 10−15) and increased white matter lesion load (WMLL) (Cohen's D = 0.55, p = 0.015). On average, patients with MS had significantly higher BAG compared to HC. Progressive brain aging in patients with MS was related to brain atrophy and increased WMLL. No significant clinical associations were found in our sample, future studies are warranted on this matter. Brain age estimation is a promising method for evaluation of subtle brain changes in MS, which is important for predicting clinical outcome and guide choice of intervention

Structural and micro-anatomical changes in vertebrae associated with idiopathic-type spinal curvature in the curveback guppy model

Background: The curveback lineage of guppy is characterized by heritable idiopathic-type spinal curvature thatdevelops during growth. Prior work has revealed several important developmental similarities to the human idiopathicscoliosis (IS) syndrome. In this study we investigate structural and histological aspects of the vertebrae that areassociated with spinal curvature in the curveback guppy and test for sexual dimorphism that might explain a femalebias for severe curve magnitudes in the population.Methods: Vertebrae were studied from whole-mount skeletal specimens of curved and non-curved adult males andfemales. A series of ratios were used to characterize structural aspects of each vertebra. A three-way analysis of variancetested for effects of sex, curvature, vertebral position along the spine, and all 2-way interactions (i.e., sex and curvature,sex and vertebra position, and vertebra position and curvature). Histological analyses were used to characterize microarchitecturalchanges in affected vertebrae and the intervertebral region.Results: In curveback, vertebrae that are associated with curvature demonstrate asymmetric shape distortion,migration of the intervertebral ligament, and vertebral thickening on the concave side of curvature. There is sexualdimorphism among curved individuals such that for several vertebrae, females have more slender vertebrae than domales. Also, in the region of the spine where lordosis typically occurs, curved and non-curved females have a reducedwidth at the middle of their vertebrae, relative to males.Conclusions: Based on similarities to human spinal curvatures and to animals with induced curves, the concaveconvexbiases described in the guppy suggest that there is a mechanical component to curve pathogenesis incurveback. Because idiopathic-type curvature in curveback is primarily a sagittal deformity, it is structurally more similarto Scheuermann kyphosis than IS. Anatomical differences between teleosts and humans make direct biomechanicalcomparisons difficult. However, study of basic biological systems involved in idiopathic-type spinal curvature incurveback may provide insight into the relationship between a predisposing aetiology, growth, and biomechanics.Further work is needed to clarify whether observed sex differences in vertebral characteristics are related to the femalebias for severe curves that is observed in the population

Comparability of Results from Pair and Classical Model Formulations for Different Sexually Transmitted Infections

The “classical model” for sexually transmitted infections treats partnerships as instantaneous events summarized by partner change rates, while individual-based and pair models explicitly account for time within partnerships and gaps between partnerships. We compared predictions from the classical and pair models over a range of partnership and gap combinations. While the former predicted similar or marginally higher prevalence at the shortest partnership lengths, the latter predicted self-sustaining transmission for gonorrhoea (GC) and Chlamydia (CT) over much broader partnership and gap combinations. Predictions on the critical level of condom use (Cc) required to prevent transmission also differed substantially when using the same parameters. When calibrated to give the same disease prevalence as the pair model by adjusting the infectious duration for GC and CT, and by adjusting transmission probabilities for HIV, the classical model then predicted much higher Cc values for GC and CT, while Cc predictions for HIV were fairly close. In conclusion, the two approaches give different predictions over potentially important combinations of partnership and gap lengths. Assuming that it is more correct to explicitly model partnerships and gaps, then pair or individual-based models may be needed for GC and CT since model calibration does not resolve the differences

FABP7 expression in normal and stab-injured brain cortex and its role in astrocyte proliferation

Reactive gliosis, in which astrocytes as well as other types of glial cells undergo massive proliferation, is a common hallmark of all brain pathologies. Brain-type fatty acid-binding protein (FABP7) is abundantly expressed in neural stem cells and astrocytes of developing brain, suggesting its role in differentiation and/or proliferation of glial cells through regulation of lipid metabolism and/or signaling. However, the role of FABP7 in proliferation of glial cells during reactive gliosis is unknown. In this study, we examined the expression of FABP7 in mouse cortical stab injury model and also the phenotype of FABP7-KO mice in glial cell proliferation. Western blotting showed that FABP7 expression was increased significantly in the injured cortex compared with the contralateral side. By immunohistochemistry, FABP7 was localized to GFAP+ astrocytes (21% of FABP7+ cells) and NG2+ oligodendrocyte progenitor cells (62%) in the normal cortex. In the injured cortex there was no change in the population of FABP7+/NG2+ cells, while there was a significant increase in FABP7+/GFAP+ cells. In the stab-injured cortex of FABP7-KO mice there was decrease in the total number of reactive astrocytes and in the number of BrdU+ astrocytes compared with wild-type mice. Primary cultured astrocytes from FABP7-KO mice also showed a significant decrease in proliferation and omega-3 fatty acid incorporation compared with wild-type astrocytes. Overall, these data suggest that FABP7 is involved in the proliferation of astrocytes by controlling cellular fatty acid homeostasis