Computational Analysis of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA)

We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the economic effects of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) that is currently being negotiated among the 34 countries in the region. The model covers 18 economic sectors in each of 22 countries/regions and is based on Version 5.4 of the GTAP database for 1997 together with specially constructed estimates of services barriers and other data on sectoral employment and numbers of firms. The distinguishing feature of the model is that it incorporates some aspects of trade with imperfect competition in the manufacturing and services sectors, including monopolistic competition, increasing returns, and product variety. The modeling focus is on the effects of the bilateral removal of tariffs on agriculture and manufactures and services barriers. Rules of origin and other restrictive measures and the non-trade aspects of the FTAA are not taken into account due to data constraints. The computational results indicate that the FTAA would increase the economic welfare of the FTAA member countries by $118.8 billion, with the largest increases accruing to the United States,$67.6 billion, and to South America, $31.0 billion. The FTAA is trade diverting for most of the rest-of-world, with a welfare reduction of$9.3 billion. In comparison, if the FTAA countries were to adopt unilateral free trade, total FTAA member welfare would increase by $476.8 billion and global welfare by$812.7 billion. If multilateral free trade were adopted by all countries/regions in the global trading system, the welfare effects would be considerably larger, $751.2 billion for the FTAA members and$2.7 trillion globally.Trade liberalization, Globalization

Computational Analysis of the U.S FTAs with Central America, Australia, And Morocco

We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the economic effects of the U.S. bilateral FTAs negotiated with Central America, Australia, and Morocco. The model covers 18 economic sectors in each of 22 countries/regions and is based on Version 5.4 of the GTAP database for 1997 together with specially constructed estimates of services barriers and other data on sectoral employment and numbers of firms. The distinguishing feature of the model is that it incorporates monopolistic competition in the manufacturing and services sectors, including increasing returns and product variety. The modeling focus is on the effects of the bilateral removal of tariffs on agriculture and manufactures and services barriers. Rules of origin and other restrictive measures and the non-trade aspects of the FTAs are not taken into account due to data constraints. The computational results indicate that the benefits of bilateral FTAs for the United States and partner countries are rather small in both absolute and relative terms, and that far greater benefits could be realized if the United States and its FTA partners adopted unilateral free trade and especially if multilateral free trade was adopted by all countries/regions in the global trading system.Free Trade Agreements, Unilateral Liberalization, Multilateral Liberalization

Computational Analysis of the U.S FTA with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU)

We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the economic effects of the U.S. FTA being negotiated with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). The model covers 18 economic sectors in each of 22 countries/regions and is based on Version 5.4 of the GTAP database for 1997 together with specially constructed estimates of services barriers and other data on sectoral employment and numbers of firms. The distinguishing feature of the model is that it incorporates monopolistic competition in the manufacturing and services sectors, including increasing returns and product variety. The modeling focus is on the effects of the bilateral removal of tariffs on agriculture and manufactures and services barriers. Rules of origin and other restrictive measures and the non-trade aspects of the U.S.-SACU FTA are not taken into account due to data constraints. The computational results indicate that the benefits of the bilateral FTA for the United States and the SACU are rather small in both absolute and relative terms. Far greater benefits could be realized if the United States and the SACU adopted unilateral free trade and especially if multilateral free trade was adopted by all countries/regions in the global trading system.

Computational Analysis of the Menu of U.S.-Japan Trade Policies

We have used the Michigan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of World Production and Trade to calculate the aggregate welfare and sectoral employment effects of the menu of U.S.-Japan trade policies. The menu of policies encompasses the various preferential U.S. and Japan bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) negotiated and in process, unilateral removal of existing trade barriers by the two countries, and global (multilateral) free trade. The U.S. preferential agreements include the FTAs approved by the U.S. Congress with Chile and Singapore in 2003, those signed with Central America, Australia, and Morocco and awaiting Congressional approval in 2004, and prospective FTAs with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), Thailand, and the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). The Japanese preferential agreements include the bilateral FTA with Singapore signed in 2002 and prospective FTAs with Chile, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, and Thailand. The welfare impacts of the FTAs on the United States and Japan are shown to be rather small in absolute and relative terms. The sectoral employment effects are also generally small in the United States and Japan, but vary across the individual sectors depending on the patterns of the bilateral liberalization. The welfare effects on the FTA partner countries are mostly positive though generally small, but there are some indications of potentially disruptive employment shifts in some partner countries. There are indications of trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on nonmember countries for some of the FTAs analyzed. Data limitations precluded analysis of the welfare effects of the different FTA rules of origin and other discriminatory arrangements. In comparison to the welfare gains from the U.S. and Japan bilateral FTAs, the gains from both unilateral trade liberalization by the United States, Japan, and the FTA partners, and from global (multilateral) free trade are shown to be rather substantial and more uniformly positive for all countries in the global trading system. The U.S. and Japan FTAs are based on "hub" and "spoke" arrangements. We show that the spokes emanate out in different and often overlapping directions, suggesting that the complex of bilateral FTAs may create distortions of the global trading system.

Helium Nova on a Very Massive White Dwarf -- A Light Curve Model of V445 Puppis (2000) Revised

V445 Pup (2000) is a unique object identified as a helium nova. Color indexes during the outburst are consistent with those of free-free emission. We present a free-free emission dominated light curve model of V445 Pup on the basis of the optically thick wind theory. Our light curve fitting shows that (1) the white dwarf (WD) mass is very massive (M_WD \gtrsim 1.35 M_\sun), and (2) a half of the accreted matter remains on the WD, both of which suggest that the increasing WD mass. Therefore, V445 Pup is a strong candidate of Type Ia supernova progenitor. The estimated distance to V445 Pup is now consistent with the recent observational suggestions, 3.5 < d < 6.5 kpc. A helium star companion is consistent with the brightness of m_v=14.5 mag just before the outburst, if it is a little bit evolved hot (\log T (K) \gtrsim 4.5) star with the mass of M_He \gtrsim 0.8 M_\sun. We then emphasize importance of observations in the near future quiescent phase after the thick circumstellar dust dissipates away, especially its color and magnitude to specify the nature of the companion star. We have also calculated helium ignition masses for helium shell flashes against various helium accretion rates and discussed the recurrence period of helium novae.Comment: 8 pages including 12 figures, to appear in Ap

Line Evolution of the Nova V5587 Sgr from Early to Nebula Phase

The spectral evolution of the nova V5587 Sgr has been monitored at Koyama Astronomical Observatory and Higashi-Hiroshima Observatory, Japan, from the early to nebula phase. The nova rebrightened several times. The spectra during the early phase showed emission lines of H α, H β, O I, He I, He II, N II, Fe II. Nova V5587 Sgr is classified into the Fe II type. The helium abundance of the nova is estimated as N(He)/N(H) = 0.134 ± 0.09. The light curve, the spectral evolution, and the helium abundance in V5587 Sgr are similar to those of the nova PW Vul