Main assumptions for energy pathways

© The Author(s) 2019. The aim of this chapter is to make the scenario calculations fully transparent and comprehensible to the scientific community. It provides the scenario narratives for the reference case (5.0 °C) as well as for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C on a global and regional basis. Cost projections for all fossil fuels and renewable energy technologies until 2050 are provided. Explanations are given for all relevant base year data for the modelling and the main input parameters such as GDP, population, renewable energy potentials and technology parameters

Energy demand projections for energy [r]evolution

In this study energy demand scenarios are developed for the 2012 update of the Greenpeace/EREC Energy [R]evolution scenario. These scenarios cover energy demand in the period 2009-2050 for ten world regions (OECD Europe, OECD Americas, OECD Asia Oceania, Eastern Europe/Eurasia, China, India, Other non-OECD Asia, Latin America, Africa and Middle East)

Improving material projections in Integrated Assessment Models: The use of a stock-based versus a flow-based approach for the iron and steel industry

The steel industry is responsible for a large share of the industrial energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions and several long-term energy models have some representation of this sub-sector. It is found that models, commonly use a flow-based approach for projecting steel demand neglecting that in-use steel stocks serve as a better demand indicator than steel consumption. A stock-based method that uses the historical steel stock results from detailed material flow analysis is developed for making steel demand projections and implemented in the IMAGE Integrated Assessment Model. Large differences between the two approaches arise. For the first half of the 21st century, global steel demand increases with both approaches and at a similar rate to reach 2300 Mt/yr by 2050. For the second half of the 21st century, however, the developments differ drastically. With the stock-based approach, global steel demand decreases by 0.8%/a to reach 1600 Mt/yr, while with the flow-based approach it increases by 0.3%/a to reach 2600 Mt/yr in 2100. Given that steel production levels have a profound contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, using the right approach is crucial. This means that long-term energy models may currently overestimate the industrial emissions in the last half of the century. © 202

The scope for better industry representation in long-term energy models: Modeling the cement industry

Although the cement industry emits around 6% of global CO2 emissions, most global Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) barely represent this industrial subsector or do not cover all important processes. This study, describes the state-of-the-art of cement modelling in IAMs, suggests possible improvements and discusses the impacts of these on energy and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the IMAGE global IAM. It is found that two cement-sector specific GHG mitigation measures are often not explicitly accounted for in IAMs, namely: (i) retrofitting and (ii) reducing the clinker to cement ratio. For retrofitting, many measures are identified as cost-effective and when incorporating these in the IMAGE model overall energy use reduces between 2010 and 2035 by 9.8 and 11 EJ (4% and 5%) under the baseline and GHG mitigation scenarios, respectively. When incorporating the clinker to cement ratio by linking material availability to the activities in the steel industry and coal-fired power plants, the 2050 energy use reduces by 15% under the baseline scenario and increases by 9% under the GHG mitigation scenario as fewer coal-fired power plants are in operation. This is even more prominent in the long term. The 2100 energy use is 14% higher in the GHG mitigation scenario as even fewer coal-fired power plants are used drastically limiting the potential for clinker substitution with fly ash. These results highlight the importance of capturing cross-sectoral relationships between industries and of including sector specific mitigation measures in long-term energy models

Comparing projections of industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in long-term energy models

The industry sector is a major energy consumer and GHG emitter. Effective climate change mitigation strategies will require a significant reduction of industrial emissions. To better understand the variations in the projected industrial pathways for both baseline and mitigation scenarios, we compare key input and structure assumptions used in energy-models in relation to the modeled sectors' mitigation potential. It is shown that although all models show in the short term similar trends in a baseline scenario, where industrial energy demand increases steadily, after 2050 energy demand spans a wide range across the models (between 203 and 451 EJ/yr). In Non-OECD countries, the sectors energy intensity is projected to decline relatively rapidly but in the 2010–2050 period this is offset by economic growth. The ability to switch to alternative fuels to mitigate GHG emissions differs across models with technologically detailed models being less flexible in switching from fossil fuels to electricity. This highlights the importance of understanding economy-wide mitigation responses and costs and is therefore an area for improvements. By looking at the cement sector in more detail, we show that analyzing each industrial sub-sector separately can improve the interpretation and accuracy of outcomes, and provide insights in the feasibility of GHG abatement

Energy [r]evolution - a sustainable world energy outlook

Energy [R]evolution 2012 provides a consistent fundamental pathway for how to protect our climate: getting the world from where we are now to where we need to be by phasing out fossil fuels and cutting CO2 emissions while ensuring energy security.The Energy [R]evolution Scenario has become a well known and well respected energy analysis since it was first published for Europe in 2005. This is the fourth Global Energy [R]evolution scenario; earlier editions were published in 2007, 2008 and 2010. The evolution of the scenarios has included a detailed employment analysis in 2010, and now this edition expands the research further to incorporate new demand and transport projections, new constraints for the oil and gas pathways and techno-economic aspects of renewable heating systems. While the 2010 edition had two scenarios – a basic and an advanced Energy [R]evolution, this edition puts forward only one; based on the previous ‘advanced’ case