Impact of Unexpected Events, Shocking News and Rumours on Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics

We analyze the dynamical response of the world's financial community to various types of unexpected events, including the 9/11 terrorist attacks as they unfolded on a minute-by-minute basis. We find that there are various 'species' of news, characterized by how quickly the news get absorbed, how much meaning and importance is assigned to it by the community, and what subsequent actions are then taken. For example, the response to the unfolding events of 9/11 shows a gradual collective understanding of what was happening, rather than an immediate realization. For news items which are not simple economic statements, and hence whose implications are not immediately obvious, we uncover periods of collective discovery during which collective opinions seem to oscillate in a remarkably synchronized way. In the case of a rumour, our findings also provide a concrete example of contagion in inter-connected communities. Practical applications of this work include the possibility of producing selective newsfeeds for specific communities, based on their likely impact

BICEP2 / Keck Array VIII: Measurement of gravitational lensing from large-scale B-mode polarization

We present measurements of polarization lensing using the 150 GHz maps which include all data taken by the BICEP2 & Keck Array CMB polarization experiments up to and including the 2014 observing season (BK14). Despite their modest angular resolution ($\sim 0.5^\circ$), the excellent sensitivity ($\sim 3\mu$K-arcmin) of these maps makes it possible to directly reconstruct the lensing potential using only information at larger angular scales ($\ell\leq 700$). From the auto-spectrum of the reconstructed potential we measure an amplitude of the spectrum to be $A^{\phi\phi}_{\rm L}=1.15\pm 0.36$ (Planck $\Lambda$CDM prediction corresponds to $A^{\phi\phi}_{\rm L}=1$), and reject the no-lensing hypothesis at 5.8$\sigma$, which is the highest significance achieved to date using an EB lensing estimator. Taking the cross-spectrum of the reconstructed potential with the Planck 2015 lensing map yields $A^{\phi\phi}_{\rm L}=1.13\pm 0.20$. These direct measurements of $A^{\phi\phi}_{\rm L}$ are consistent with the $\Lambda$CDM cosmology, and with that derived from the previously reported BK14 B-mode auto-spectrum ($A^{\rm BB}_{\rm L}=1.20\pm 0.17$). We perform a series of null tests and consistency checks to show that these results are robust against systematics and are insensitive to analysis choices. These results unambiguously demonstrate that the B-modes previously reported by BICEP / Keck at intermediate angular scales ($150\lesssim\ell\lesssim 350$) are dominated by gravitational lensing. The good agreement between the lensing amplitudes obtained from the lensing reconstruction and B-mode spectrum starts to place constraints on any alternative cosmological sources of B-modes at these angular scales.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figure

Host genetics determine susceptibility to avian influenza infection and transmission dynamics

Host-genetic control of influenza virus infection has been the object of little attention. In this study we determined that two inbred lines of chicken differing in their genetic background, Lines 0 and C-B12, were respectively relatively resistant and susceptible to infection with the low pathogenicity influenza virus A/Turkey/England/647/77 as defined by substantial differences in viral shedding trajectories. Resistant birds, although infected, were unable to transmit virus to contact birds, as ultimately only the presence of a sustained cloacal shedding (and not oropharyngeal shedding) was critical for transmission. Restriction of within-bird transmission of virus occurred in the resistant line, with intra-nares or cloacal infection resulting in only local shedding and failing to transmit fully through the gastro-intestinal-pulmonary tract. Resistance to infection was independent of adaptive immune responses, including the expansion of specific IFNγ secreting cells or production of influenza-specific antibody. Genetic resistance to a novel H9N2 virus was less robust, though significant differences between host genotypes were still clearly evident. The existence of host-genetic determination of the outcome of influenza infection offers tools for the further dissection of this regulation and also for understanding the mechanisms of influenza transmission within and between birds

Mapping patterns of complementary and alternative medicine use in cancer: An explorative cross-sectional study of individuals with reported positive "exceptional" experiences

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>While the use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) among cancer patients is common and widespread, levels of commitment to CAM vary. "Committed" CAM use is important to investigate, as it may be associated with elevated risks and benefits, and may affect use of biomedically-oriented health care (BHC). Multiple methodological approaches were used to explore and map patterns of CAM use among individuals postulated to be committed users, voluntarily reporting exceptional experiences associated with CAM use after cancer diagnosis.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>The verbatim transcripts of thirty-eight unstructured interviews were analyzed in two steps. First, manifest content analysis was used to elucidate and map participants' use of CAM, based on the National Center for Complementary Medicine (NCCAM)'s classification system. Second, patterns of CAM use were explored statistically using principal component analysis.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>The 38 participants reported using a total of 274 specific CAM (median = 4) consisting of 148 different therapeutic modalities. Most reported therapies could be categorized using the NCCAM taxonomy (n = 224). However, a significant number of CAM therapies were not consistent with this categorization (n = 50); consequently, we introduced two additional categories: <it>Spiritual/health literature </it>and <it>Treatment centers</it>. The two factors explaining the largest proportion of variation in CAM usage patterns were a) number of CAM modalities used and b) a category preference for <it>Energy therapies </it>over the categories <it>Alternative Medical Systems </it>and <it>Treatment centers </it>or vice versa.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>We found considerable heterogeneity in patterns of CAM use. By analyzing users' own descriptions of CAM in relation to the most commonly used predefined professional taxonomy, this study highlights discrepancies between user and professional conceptualizations of CAM not previously addressed. Beyond variations in users' reports of CAM, our findings indicate some patterns in CAM usage related to number of therapies used and preference for different CAM categories.</p

Assessing control of postural stability in community-living older adults using performance-based limits of stability

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Balance disability measurements routinely used to identify fall risks in frail populations have limited value in the early detection of postural stability deficits in community-living older adults. The objectives of the study were to 1) measure performance-based limits of stability (LOS) in community-living older adults and compare them to theoretical LOS computed from data proposed by the Balance Master^®system, 2) explore the feasibility of a new measurement approach based on the assessment of postural stability during weight-shifting tasks at performance-based LOS, 3) quantify intra-session performance variability during multiple trials using the performance-based LOS paradigm.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twenty-four healthy community-living older adults (10 men, 14 women) aged between 62 to 85 (mean age ± sd, 71.5 ± 6 yrs) participated in the study. Subjects' performance-based LOS were established by asking them to transfer their body weight as far as possible in three directions (forward, right and left) without changing their base of support. LOS were computed as the maximal excursion of the COP in each direction among three trials. Participants then performed two experimental tasks that consisted in controlling, with the assistance of visual feedback, their centre of pressure (COP) within two predefined targets set at 100% of their performance-based LOS. For each tasks 8 trials were performed. Ground reaction forces and torques during performance-based LOS evaluation and experimental tasks were recorded with a force plate. Sway area and medio-lateral mean COP displacement speed variables were extracted from force plate recordings.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Significant differences between theoretical LOS computed from maximum leaning angles derived from anthropometric characteristics and performance-based LOS were observed. Results showed that a motor learning effect was present as the participants optimized their weight-shifting strategy through the first three trials of each task using the visual biofeedback provided on their COP. Reliable measures of control of postural stability at performance-based LOS can be obtained after two additional trials after the learning phase (0.69 > ICC > 1.0).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Establishing performance-based LOS instead of relying on estimations of theoretical LOS offers a more individualized and realistic insight on the true LOS of an individual. Performance-based LOS can be used as targets during weight-shifting postural tasks with real time visual feedback of the COP displacement to assess postural stability of community-living older adults. In order to obtain reliable results, a learning phase allowing subjects to learn how to control their COP displacement is needed.</p

On the origin of spaces: morphometric foundations of urban form evolution

The modern discipline of urban morphology gives us a ground for the comparative analysis of cities, which increasingly includes specific quantitative elements. In this paper, we make a further step forward towards the definition of a general method for the classification of urban form. We draw from morphometrics and taxonomy in life sciences to propose such method, which we name ‘urban morphometrics’. We then test it on a unit of the urban landscape named ‘Sanctuary Area’ (SA), explored in 45 cities whose origins span four historic time periods: Historic (medieval), Industrial (19th century), New Towns (post-WWII, high-rise) and Sprawl (post-WWII, low-rise). We describe each SA through 207 physical dimensions and then use these to discover features that discriminate them among the four temporal groups. Nine dimensions emerge as sufficient to correctly classify 90% of the urban settings by their historic origins. These nine attributes largely identify an area's ‘visible identity’ as reflected by three characteristics: (1) block perimeterness, or the way buildings define the street-edge; (2) building coverage, or the way buildings cover the land and (3) regular plot coverage, or the extent to which blocks are made of plots that have main access from a street. Hierarchical cluster analysis utilising only the nine key variables nearly perfectly clusters each SA according to its historic origin; moreover, the resulting dendrogram shows, just after WWII, the first ‘bifurcation’ of urban history, with the emergence of the modern city as a new ‘species’ of urban form. With ‘urban morphometrics’ we hope to extend urban morphological research and contribute to understanding the way cities evolve