Insurance policies for monetary policy in the Euro area

In this paper, we examine the cost of insurance against model uncertainty for the Euro area considering four alternative reference models, all of which are used for policy-analysis at the ECB.We find that maximal insurance across this model range in terms of aMinimax policy comes at moderate costs in terms of lower expected performance. We extract priors that would rationalize the Minimax policy from a Bayesian perspective. These priors indicate that full insurance is strongly oriented towards the model with highest baseline losses. Furthermore, this policy is not as tolerant towards small perturbations of policy parameters as the Bayesian policy rule. We propose to strike a compromise and use preferences for policy design that allow for intermediate degrees of ambiguity-aversion.These preferences allow the specification of priors but also give extra weight to the worst uncertain outcomes in a given context. JEL Klassifikation: E52, E58, E61

Insurance Policies for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

In this paper, we examine the cost of insurance against model uncertainty for the Euro area considering four alternative reference models, all of which are used for policy-analysis at the ECB.We find that maximal insurance across this model range in terms of aMinimax policy comes at moderate costs in terms of lower expected performance. We extract priors that would rationalize the Minimax policy from a Bayesian perspective. These priors indicate that full insurance is strongly oriented towards the model with highest baseline losses. Furthermore, this policy is not as tolerant towards small perturbations of policy parameters as the Bayesian policy rule. We propose to strike a compromise and use preferences for policy design that allow for intermediate degrees of ambiguity-aversion.These preferences allow the specification of priors but also give extra weight to the worst uncertain outcomes in a given context.Model uncertainty, robustness, monetary policy rules, minimax, euro area.

The Many Faces of Jesus Christ: Intercultural Christology

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Finanzierungsverhalten (von Banken) bei Schiffsfinanzierungen 'vor und nach Finanzkrise'

Die aktuelle Finanzkrise, die einen Höhepunkt im Zusammenbruch der Investmentbank Lehmann Brothers fand, zeigt immer deutlichere Auswirkungen auf die Realwirtschaft außerhalb des Bankensektors. Durch diese Krise haben sich im Bankensektor zunehmende Liquiditätsschwierigkeiten entwickelt, die in erster Linie auf alle Unternehmen übergreifen, die einen hohen Fremdkapitalbedarf haben. Ein hoher Fremdkapitalbedarf liegt vor allem bei der Investitionen in der Schifffahrtsbranche vor, weshalb in dieser Branche mit besonders starken Auswirkungen zu rechnen ist. In diesem Artikel werden diese Auswirkungen vom theoretischen Blickpunkt aus erörtert und anhand einer explorativen Studie in der Praxis überprüft. Es zeigt sich, dass sich die theoretischen Entwicklungen, wie etwa die Verteuerung von Fremdkapital, auch in der Praxis wiederfinden. --Finanzkrise,Kapitalstruktur,geschlossene Fonds