Climate anxiety : Conceptual considerations, and connections with climate hope and action

Climate anxiety is a phenomenon which raises growing attention. Based on a national survey of climate-related feelings and behaviors (N = 2070) in Finland, we analyzed and discussed the concept of climate anxiety and its relationship with hope and action. We found that all our measures for climate anxiety (including worry and some stronger manifestations of anxiety) and hope (including efficacy beliefs) correlated positively with each other and climate action. Furthermore, climate anxiety and hope explained unique parts of variance in self-reported climate action. We propose that, in line with the Extended Parallel Process model (EPPM) that was used as a framework, the interplay of emotions needs to be considered when studying and explaining their effect on climate action. In conclusion, the results provide support for seeing climate anxiety and hope as intertwined and adaptive feelings, which could be needed to motivate humankind in finding solutions to climate change.Peer reviewe

Äärilämpötilojen alueellinen vaihtelu Suomessa

Tiivistelmä Tässä raportissa tarkastellaan erittäin matalien ja korkeiden ilman lämpötilojen alueellista vaihtelua maassamme ääriarvoanalyysin keinoin. Tutkimus muodostuu kahdesta osasta. Ensiksi arvioidaan hyvin poikkeuksellisten lämpötilojen esiintymistä Suomessa Ilmatieteen laitoksen 20-30 pisimmän säähavaintoaikasarjan perusteella. Aikasarjojen pituus on tyypillisesti 75–165 vuotta. Hetkellisten lämpötilojen lisäksi tutkittavana on se, miten korkeana lämpötila voi pysytellä kuuden tai 24 tunnin ajan, ja samoin tarkastellaan 24 tunnin kylmyysjaksoja. Raportin toinen osa keskittyy puolestaan kalenterikuukausittaisiin ja -vuosittaisiin kylmyysennätyksiin ajanjaksolla 1971–2000, lyhyesti myös ajanjaksolla 2001–2010, käyttäen kaikkia kyseisinä ajanjaksoina toimineita havaintoasemia, joita oli noin 100. Raportin ensimmäisessä osassa esitetään yleistettyyn ääriarvojakaumaan (GEV) perustuvat, ns.lohkomaksimimenetelmää käyttäen määritetyt 50-, 100-, 500- ja 1000 vuoden toistuvuustasojen todennäköisimmät lämpötila-arvot sekä niiden 95 %:n luotettavuusrajat. Todennäköisimmät arvot on myös interpoloitu koko Suomen alueen kattavaan hilaruudukkoon, ja nämä tulokset on esitetty alueellisen vaihtelun havainnollistamiseksi karttamuodossa. Raportin toisessa osassa määritetään puolestaan kylmyysennätysten aluekeskiarvot Suomen eri ilmastollisekologisilla vyöhykkeillä asemakohtaisia arvoja ryhmittelemällä ja tutkitaan kylmyysennätysten vuodenaikaiskulkua. Lopuksi raportin toisessa osassa verrataan keskenään tuloksia, jotka perustuvat joko osassa 1 käytettyihin pitkiin, mutta määrältään melko niukkoihin havaintoaikasarjoihin, tai vaihtoehtoisesti osan 2 alueellisesti tiheisiin, mutta lyhyehköihin, vain 30 vuoden mittaisiin aikasarjoihin. Tulokset olivat enimmäkseen yhteneväisiä. Ainoastaan Lapissa, meren saaristoissa ja Helsingin Kaisaniemessä 30 vuoden pakkasennätykset olivat 2–4 °C alemmat kuin pitkien aikasarjojen perusteella osassa 2 määritetyt 40 vuoden toistuvuustasot.Abstract The purpose of this study is to create a consistent description of spatial variations of low and high air temperature extremes in Finland based on extreme value analysis. The study consists of two parts. First, the occurrence of very exceptional low or high air temperatures in Finland have been assessed based on 20-30 longest long-term observational time series of the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The length of these time series was typically 75-165 years. Besides instantaneous temperature values, also six- and 24-hour periods of very warm and 24-hour periods of very cold weather have been examined. The second part of the report, in turn, focuses on monthly and yearly temperature records in 1971–2000, briefly also in 2001-2010. That part of the study used all the available temperature data at about 100 observational weather stations in Finland. In part one of this report, the most probable temperature values and their 95% confidence intervals have been estimated for 50-, 100-, 500- and 1000-year return levels. The estimates are based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) theory and the block maxima method. To illustrate the spatial variations of the temperature extremes, the most probable values have been interpolated into a grid coverring the whole of Finland and the results are depicted as maps. In part two, regionally-averaged means of low temperature records are given for the seven ecoclimatic zones in Finland: Åland mainland, archipelago, southern boreal, southern/middle transition belt, middle boreal, northern boreal and subarctic. In addition, seasonal variations of the temperature records have been examined for all those eco-climatic zones. Finally in part two, we compare results that are based either on relatively few but long observational time series (those also used in part one) or on a multitude of rather short time series. The results were mainly found congruent. Only in Lapland, in coastal archipelago and in Helsinki City the estimates for the 40-year return levels of low air temperature were 2-4 ºC lower, if based on the short time series, compared to those assessed with the longer time series

Is conservative opposition to climate change threat-based? articulating an integrated threat model of climate change attitudes

Throughout the literature, there are assertions that those endorsing conservative ideologies reject the science and solutions of climate change due to perceived threat. That is, they fear that accepting climate change means accepting problems with a favoured socioeconomic system and supporting action on climate change threatens to disrupt these systems. We draw together lines of research and reasoning on this topic to outline three key predictions this perspective makes about the drivers of conservative denial of climate change and opposition to climate policy. The first is that an asymmetry exists in climate-related threat perceptions, whereby greater endorsement of conservative ideology predicts lower perceived threat from climate change and greater perceived threat from climate reform. Second, climate-related threat perceptions are multifaceted, such that threats to economic and cultural well-being can be experienced, at personal or collective levels. Third, the asymmetry in threat perceptions explains conservatives\u27 lower support for pro-climate reforms. We then specify a new integrated threat model of climate change attitudes, review the current evidence for and against each prediction in this model and outline ways to interrogate these theoretical predictions with empirical research. Doing so will advance understanding of the underpinnings of ideological disagreement on climate change

Occurrence of meteorological summer dry spells and dry days in northern Europe during the 20th century

Abstract In spite of the relatively humid climate of Northern Europe, prolonged meteorological dry spells do occasionally cause problems for the water supply in different sectors of society. During recent decades, total annual precipitation has increased in the region, especially during winter. A linear change in total precipitation does not necessarily indicate a change in the occurrence of meteorological drought across different time scales. In this study, temporal changes of meteorological summer (May-August) dry spells (MDS) and dry days (MDD) are analysed using measured precipitation observations from 12 weather stations located around Northern Europe. The statistics studied are the number of MDDs (&lt;1.0 and &lt;0.1 mm) per selected periods, plus the lengths of the longest MDSs during which the total accumulated precipitation remains under certain thresholds, namely 10 and 100 mm. The results suggest that, in general, the lengths of the longest MDSs and the numbers of MDDs do not differ remarkably between the stations, median value being 26/80 days (&lt;10/&lt;100 mm rain) and 87/70 days (&lt;1.0/&lt;0.1 mm/day), respectively. A distinct exception is Bergen, in Norway, where the lengths of the longest MDSs are shorter (19 and 41 days, on average) and the numbers of MDDs lower (ca. 64 and 50 days) than at the other stations. During the period of homogeneous instrumental precipitation observations, the occurrence of summer MDSs and MDD have remained the same at most of the stations. Only a few statistically significant increasing temporal trends appear in the time series of MDDs in the southern parts of the region. In the north, one statistically significant decreasing trend has been detected. In spite of the relatively humid climate of Northern Europe, prolonged meteorological dry spells do occasionally cause problems for the water supply in different sectors of society. During recent decades, total annual precipitation has increased in the region, especially during winter. A linear change in total precipitation does not necessarily indicate a change in the occurrence of meteorological drought across different time scales. In this study, temporal changes of meteorological summer (May-August) dry spells (MDS) and dry days (MDD) are analysed using measured precipitation observations from 12 weather stations located around Northern Europe. The statistics studied are the number of MDDs (&lt;1.0 and &lt;0.1 mm) per selected periods, plus the lengths of the longest MDSs during which the total accumulated precipitation remains under certain thresholds, namely 10 and 100 mm. The results suggest that, in general, the lengths of the longest MDSs and the numbers of MDDs do not differ remarkably between the stations, median value being 26/80 days (&lt;10/&lt;100 mm rain) and 87/70 days (&lt;1.0/&lt;0.1 mm/day), respectively. A distinct exception is Bergen, in Norway, where the lengths of the longest MDSs are shorter (19 and 41 days, on average) and the numbers of MDDs lower (ca. 64 and 50 days) than at the other stations. During the period of homogeneous instrumental precipitation observations, the occurrence of summer MDSs and MDD have remained the same at most of the stations. Only a few statistically significant increasing temporal trends appear in the time series of MDDs in the southern parts of the region. In the north, one statistically significant decreasing trend has been detected.</div

The role of atmospheric circulation patterns in driving recent changes in indices of extreme seasonal precipitation across Arctic Fennoscandia

Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) have a major impact across Arctic Fennoscandia (AF). Here we examine the spatial variability of seasonal 50-year trends in three EPEs across AF for 1968–2017, using daily precipitation data from 46 meteorological stations, and analyse how these are related to contemporaneous changes in the principal atmospheric circulation patterns that impact AF climate. Positive trends in seasonal wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) are widespread across AF in all seasons except autumn. Spring (autumn) has the most widespread negative (positive) trends in consecutive dry days (CDD). There is less seasonal dependence for trends in consecutive wet days (CWDs), but the majority of the stations show an increase. Clear seasonal differences in the circulation pattern that exerted most influence on these AF EPE trends exist. In spring, PRCPTOT and CDD are most affected by the Scandinavian pattern at more than half the stations while it also has a marked influence on CWD. The East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern generally has the greatest influence on the most station EPE trends in summer and autumn, yet has no effect during either spring or winter. In winter, the dominant circulation pattern across AF varies more between the different EPEs, with the North Atlantic Oscillation, Polar/Eurasia and East Atlantic patterns all exerting a major influence. There are distinct geographical distributions to the dominant pattern affecting particular EPEs in some seasons, especially winter, while in others there is no discernible spatial relationship

Snow cover trends in Finland over 1961-2014 based on gridded snow depth observations

Snow conditions in high-latitude regions are changing in response to climate warming, and these changes are likely to accelerate as the warming proceeds. Here, we analyse daily gridded snow depth, temperature and precipitation data from Finland over the period 1961-2014 to discover the ongoing changes in monthly average snow depths (SN) and several snow-related indices. Our results indicate that regional differences of changes in snow conditions can be relatively large, even within such a small district as Finland. Moreover, the interannual variation of the various snow indices was found to be larger in southern Finland than in northern Finland. The largest decrease in snow depth occurred in the southern, western and central parts of Finland in late winter and early spring. This decrease was driven by increasing mixed and liquid precipitation and, especially in spring, increasing temperature. In northern Finland, the decreasing trend of snow depth was most evident in spring, but no change occurred during winter months, although the amount of solid precipitation was found to increase in December-February. In the same months, temperature and the amount of mixed and liquid precipitation increased, likely counteracting the effects of the increasing solid precipitation on snow depth. The annual maximum snow depth that typically occurs in March was found to decrease in over 85% of Finland's area, most strongly in western coastal areas. In almost half of Finland's area, this decrease occurred despite increasing solid precipitation. Our findings highlight the complexity of the responses of snow conditions to climatic variability in northern Europe.Peer reviewe