Denali Expedition 2016, The West Buttress

Presented to the Faculty of the University of Alaska Anchorage in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCEDuring the summer of 2016 the project team will conduct an expedition to climb the West Buttress of Denali. Denali is the highest peak in North America, with an elevation of 20,320 feet above sea level. The West Buttress is the most commonly climbed route starting at the Kahiltna Glacier and ascending to the summit. The three-week expedition requires robust planning prior to step-off since there will be no external support once started. Current expedition planning typically consists of ad hoc methods of planning, consisting of subject matter expert opinion and best guesses. The average summit rate for the past ten years on Denali hovers around 52% and the fatality rate hovers at three climbers a year. Unsuccessful attempts are often attributed to bad weather, injury, lack of fitness and lack of mountaineering knowledge. Can following systematic planning guidelines and establishing preexpedition go/no-go criteria for expeditions on Denali significantly increase safety and increase summit success? This project encompassed all pre-expedition planning and support. The project produced an itinerary for the threeweek expedition, researched and procured equipment for the team, researched high altitude nutrition and procured food items, developed a comprehensive physical fitness training plan for expedition members, and developed an expedition risk management plan. Will these deliverables ensure a more successful and safer expedition? Additionally, the detailed approach to expedition planning will allow the expedition team to establish a balance between unacceptably sparse and excessively burdensome equipment and supplies.Signature Page / Title Page / Table of Contents / List of Exhibits / Abstract / Introduction / Literature Review / Research Methods and Approach / Analysis of Research / Product Development / Conclusions / Recommendations for Further Research / Works Cited / Bibliography / Itinerary / Equipment List / Meal Pla

Outcome of urogenital infection with Chlamydia muridarum in CD-14 gene knockout mice

BACKGROUND: CD14 has been postulated to play a role in chlamydial immunity and immunopathology. There is evidence to support this role in human infections but its function in a mouse model has not been investigated. METHODS: Female CD14 gene knockout and C57BL/6J wild type mice were infected intravaginally with Chlamydia muridarum. The infection course was monitored by detection of viable chlamydiae from serially collected cervical-vaginal swabs. The sequela of tubal factor infertility was assessed using hydrosalpinx formation as a surrogate marker. RESULTS: A significantly abbreviated infection course was observed in the CD14 gene knockout mice but hydrosalpinx formation occurred at similar rates between the two groups. CONCLUSION: Involvement of CD14 during chlamydial infection impedes infection resolution but this does not affect the sequela of infertility as assessed by hydrosalpinx formation

Identifying Priority Areas for Chronic Wasting Disease Surveillance in Montana

Chronic Wasting Disease is a fatal prion disease affecting ungulate species throughout North America.  As of 2013, no CWD positive deer have been found in the state of Montana, however, several surrounding states and provinces have identified multiple cases of the disease.  We used information on mule deer habitat selection, abundance, and locations of CWD cases in surrounding states to identify priority areas in Montana for CWD surveillance. The habitat selection models were based on over 10000 VHF and GPS locations collected from mule deer from 1975-2011, and predicted resource selection function (RSF) values for winter and summer in 5 of the 7 wildlife management regions in the state of Montana. We estimated mule deer density using the aerial survey counts weighted by the value of the RSF for each pixel. High priority areas were those that contained the highest densities of mule deer and were closest to locations with CWD positive deer. This information can be used to inform Montana’s CWD surveillance program for mule deer. We concluded that based on mule deer distribution and movement patterns several mule deer herds in Montana were at risk of coming into contact with deer from known infected herds

Elk Movements and Brucellosis Transmission Risk in Southwest Montana

The presence of Brucella abortus within free-ranging elk populations is an important conservation and management issue because of the risk of brucellosis transmission to livestock. Understanding elk distributions is necessary to forecast elk and livestock spatial overlap and the potential for brucellosis transmission. As part of a 5-yr brucellosis surveillance project, 30 adult female elk were captured and fitted with GPS collars in each of the winters of 2010, 2011 and 2012 in three southwest Montana study areas. We used elk location information to assess elk movements, and spatial overlap with livestock and adjacent elk herds. The elk movement results were further augmented with data from Wyoming and Idaho elk herds. The elk movement data shows interchange of females between elk herds during the transmission risk period. Resource selection models predicting elk distribution and spatial overlap with livestock during the transmission risk period were developed and extrapolated across the designated brucellosis surveillance area of Montana. We used the elk location data collected in this study to validate and refine models predicting elk distributions and spatial overlap with livestock during the risk period. Predictive models may be used as a tool for focusing management actions aimed at minimizing elk and livestock spatial overlap during the transmission risk period

Modeling Management Strategies for the Control of Bighorn Sheep Respiratory Disease

Infectious pneumonia has plagued bighorn sheep populations and stymied recovery efforts across the western United States for decades.  Here we present a simple, non-spatial, stochastic, discrete-time model that captures basic bighorn sheep demographics and in which we simulate the dynamics of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, the suspected primary causative agent in bighorn sheep respiratory disease. We then use the model to explore the impacts of management approaches, including augmentation, depopulation and reintroduction, density reduction, and test-and-cull, aimed at reducing or eliminating the pathogen, its transmission, or associated infection costs. Results suggest that test-and-cull (testing 95% of a herd and removing PCR-positive individuals) and depopulation and reintroduction (assuming ability to only depopulate 95% of the herd) offer the best probability of eliminating the pathogen, although neither are expected to be 100% successful. Augmentation (adding 30 adult ewes) does not increase the probability of pathogen extinction, and in some cases may prolong pathogen persistence and diminish herd recovery.  Density reduction (randomly removing 25-50% of the herd) only modestly increases the probability of stochastic pathogen extinction and herd recovery.  Stochastic pathogen extinction and herd recovery is predicted to occur on occasion without any management intervention. Ultimately, decisions to manage respiratory disease in wild sheep must weigh the predicted success of the management tool against financial, logistical, ethical, and value-based considerations. Here, we aim to supply mechanistic-based predictions of the relative efficacy of currently employed or proposed tools, as well as characterize the sensitivity of these predictions to our assumptions about how the disease process works

Elk Movements and Harvest Across Public and Private Lands in the Sapphire Mountains

Hunting access issues have become increasingly contentious as changes in land ownership and use have influenced elk distributions in some areas. In the Sapphire Mountains of western Montana, hunters have voiced concerns regarding elk aggregations on privately-owned lands that restrict hunter access.   To address these concerns, we initiated a survey of landowners and hunters to determine satisfaction with elk management.  We also radiocollared 65 elk (45 cows, 20 bulls) to better understand elk distributions across public and private lands.  In all seasons, bull elk locations were more likely to occur in publicly accessible areas than cow elk locations. During archery season, 61% of bull locations and 41% of cow locations occurred in publicly accessible areas.  These numbers dropped to 48% of bull locations and 14% of cow locations in publicly accessible areas during rifle season.  During archery and rifle seasons combined, 1 of 39 radiocollared cows (2.4%) was harvested on private land, and 5 of 19 radiocollared bulls (26.3%) were harvested: 3 on publicly accessible land and 2 on private land. Although hunters reported a lack of elk on public lands as a concern, our radiocollar and harvest data confirm that at least a segment of the bull population was accessible to public hunters, but female elk were aggregated in areas that restricted hunter access.  A lack of hunter access to female elk during the hunting season may result in management challenges, including game damage issues, and increases in the population beyond objective levels

Proactive Management of Pneumonia Epizootics in Bighorn Sheep in Montana—Project Update

Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for effective management of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis). Approximately half of the herds in Montana have suffered die-offs since the 1980s, many of which were pneumonia events. A set of models that identify risk of pneumonia and the best management decisions given that risk would be of great value for proactive management of pneumonia epizootics. Our first objective is to design and test a risk model that will help predict a herd’s risk of pneumonia. We hypothesize that various factors increase risk through pathogen exposure, pathogen spread, and disease susceptibility. Analysis of these factors comparing herds with and without recent pneumonia histories using Bayesian logistic regression will allow us to design a risk model. Our second objective is to develop a proactive decision model that incorporates estimates of pneumonia risk to help evaluate costs and benefits of alternative proactive actions appropriate to those estimates. We will use a Structured Decision Making framework, which provides a deliberative, transparent, and defensible decision-making process that is particularly valuable in complex decision-making environments such as wildlife disease management. Together the resulting risk and decision models, to be completed this year, will help managers estimate pneumonia risk and identify the best management action based on both the severity of each herd’s predicted risk and costs and benefits of competing management alternatives. Ultimately, this project will demonstrate the development and application of risk and decision models for proactive wildlife health programs in Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks

A Risk Model for Proactive Management of Pneumonia Epizootics in Bighorn Sheep

Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for management of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis). Risk factors associated with the disease are poorly understood, making pneumonia epizootics hard to predict; such epizootics are thus managed reactively rather than proactively. We developed a model that identifies risk factors and addresses biological questions about risk. Using Bayesian logistic regression with repeated measures, we found that private land, weed control using domestic sheep or goats, pneumonia history, and herd density were associated with risk of pneumonia in 43 herds in Montana that experienced 22 epizootics out of 637 herd years from 1979–2013. Within high-risk areas occupied by herds, risk increased with greater amounts of private land and use of domestic sheep or goats for weed control. Herds had >10 times greater odds of having a pneumonia epizootic if they or neighboring herds within high-risk areas had a history of pneumonia. Risk greatly increased when herds were at high density, with nearly 15 times greater odds of pneumonia compared to herds at low density. Number of federal sheep and goat allotments, proximity to nearest herds, ram:ewe ratios, normality of winter and spring precipitation, and herds with native versus mixed or reintroduced origin were not associated with increased risk. We conclude that factors associated with risk of pneumonia are complex and may not always be from the most obvious sources. The ability to identify high risk herds will help determine where to focus management efforts and what risk factors most affect each herd, facilitating more effective, proactive management

Modeling Proactive Decisions to Manage Pneumonia Epizootics in Bighorn Sheep

Pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) are a major challenge for wildlife agencies due to the complexity of the disease, long-term impacts, and lack of tools to manage risk. We developed a decision model to facilitate proactive management of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep in Montana. Our decision model integrates a risk model to predict probability of pneumonia epizootics based on identified risk factors. It uses a structured decision making (SDM) approach to analyze potential decisions based on predictions from the risk model, herd-specific management objectives, and predicted consequences and trade-offs. We demonstrated our model’s use with an analysis of representative herds and analyzed the recommended decisions to understand them clearly. We learned that proactive management for each herd was expected to outperform in meeting multiple, competing management objectives compared to ongoing status quo management. Based on sensitivity analyses, we also learned that the recommended decisions were relatively robust with limited sensitivity to variations in model inputs and uncertainties; we expect this to be the case in future analyses as well. Our decision model addressed the challenges of uncertainty, risk tolerance, and the multi-objective nature of management of bighorn sheep while providing a consistent, transparent, and deliberative approach for making decisions for each herd. It is a unique tool for managing pneumonia epizootics using an accessible framework for biologists and managers. Our work also provides a case study for developing similar SDM-based decision models, particularly for other wildlife diseases, to address challenges of making complex decisions

Comparison of Chlamydia antigen and AD-like pathology in the brains of BALB/c mice following intranasal infection with Chlamydia muridarum or Chlamydia pneumoniae

Previous research indicates BALB/c mice inoculated with Chlamydia pneumoniae (Cpn) demonstrated AD-like pathology which suggests that this mouse model is valid for studying the pathogenesis implicated in Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Studies have demonstrated that Chlamydia trachomatis (Ctr) can disseminate from its primary site of infection and plays a major role in the induction of reactive arthritis. The objectives of this lab are: (1) to identify and localize Chlamydia antigens in the brains of BALB/c mice infected with C. muridarum and (2) to determine if infection with C. muridarum induces AD-like pathology comparable to Cpn. Using mouse adapted respiratory isolates of C. muridarum, we investigated whether C. muridarum disseminated from the respiratory tract to the brain. Mice were intranasally infected with plaqued C small Weiss (CSW) or plaqued mouse pneumonitis Weiss (MoPn Weiss). Brain tissue was isolated at 2 months post-infection. Serial sections from brains infected mice were analyzed for amyloid or Chlamydia antigens. Preliminary analysis of brain tissue demonstrated no detectable difference in C. muridarum antigen between mice receiving 1 x105 IFU and mice receiving 1 x101 IFU, whereas a small but detectable difference was identified in amyloid-specific labeling between these two experimental groups. In contrast, prominent Chlamydia-specific labeling was identified in the brains of Cpn-infected mice as well as substantial amyloid deposition at 2 months p.i.. These data suggest that, relative to Cpn AR-39 infection, C. muridarum infection is a weaker stimulus for inflammation, resulting in decreased amyloid deposition in the brains of BALB/c mice