Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Midwestern Metros

In the most recent period, 2012-2014, the Midwest’s largest metro areas attracted and retained almost 37,000 YCE migrants, which is almost double the number during the Great Recession period. Although the region’s largest city, Chicago, recorded the largest net in/migration of YCEs (11,033) in 2012-2014, Kansas City recorded the highest NMQ of YCEs (18.6 percent), followed by Columbus, OH (18.5 percent) and Detroit (16.4 percent). Detroit’s turnaround is particularly noteworthy; the Motor City metro posted the second highest change in NMQ values between the two periods (second only to Birmingham). Two metros reported a net out/migration of YCEs, one being Buffalo (-14.5 percent), and the other being Milwaukee (-7.0 percent)

Coordinated Population Forecast for Baker County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069

Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Baker County include Baker City, Greenhorn, Haines, Halfway, Huntington, Richland, Sumpter, and Unity. Baker County’s total population declined slightly in the 2000s; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster population decline during this period, while others experienced growth. Richland, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rate at 2 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period, while Unity posted the lowest average annual growth rate of -5.9 percent. The population growth that did occur in Baker County in the 2000s was largely the result of net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2001 to 2017, resulting in minimal population change. Total population in Baker County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely decrease at a slightly quicker pace in the near-term (2019 to 2044) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). Population decline is largely driven by an aging population and natural decrease outpacing net in-migration. Baker County’s total population is forecast to decline by roughly 700 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by 1,160 over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069)

Coordinated Population Forecast for Union County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069

Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Union County include Cove, Elgin, Imbler, Island City, La Grande, North Powder, Summerville, and the city of Union. Union County’s total population grew steadily in the 2000s; however, some of its smaller sub-areas experienced faster population growth during this period. Summerville, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rates at 1.4 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. The population growth in the 2000s was the result of both net in-migration and natural increase. An aging population not only led to a slight increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. Still, a larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2001 to 2017. A waning natural increase combined with sporadic net in-migration has led to slow population growth in the 2000s. Total population in Union County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely increase at a quicker pace in the near-term (2019 to 2044) compared to the long-term. Slower growth is largely driven by a growing natural decrease that cuts into net in-migration throughout the forecast period. Union County’s total population is forecast to grow by roughly 1,300 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by roughly 2,270 over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069)

Coordinated Population Forecast for Grant County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069

Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. Grant County’s sub-areas include Canyon City, Dayville, Granite, John Day, Long Creek, Monument, Mount Vernon, Prairie City, and Seneca. Grant County’s total population declined slightly in the 2000s; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster population growth during this period. Canyon City, Dayville, and Granite, for example, posted positive average annual growth rates during the 2000 to 2010 period. The sporadic population growth that did occur in Grant County in the 2000s was largely the result of net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2001 to 2017, resulting in steady population decline. Total population in Grant County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely decrease at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2019 to 2044) than the long-term (2044-2069). Population decline is largely driven by an aging population and natural decrease outpacing net in-migration. Grant County’s total population is forecast to decline by roughly 605 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by more than 1,030 over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069)

Coordinated Population Forecast for Lane County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069

Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Lane County include Cottage Grove, Eugene, Florence, Springfield, Coburg, Creswell, Dunes City, Junction City, Lowell, Oakridge, Veneta, and Westfir. Lane County’s total population had minimal growth in the 2000s. However, population growth occurred at different rates across the County as some of the sub-areas experienced faster growth while others declined in population during this period. The population growth that did occur in Lane County in the 2000s was largely the result of net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages led to stagnating birth rates and a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in 2017 for the first time since the turn of the century. Though net in-migration has fluctuated with business cycles, it has been high in recent years (2013-17), leading to strong population growth. Total population in Lane County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely continue to grow at a similar rate as it has between 2010 and 2019. The County population growth is entirely driven by net in-migration as an aging population and stagnating birth rates are likely to lead to greater rates of natural decrease. Lane County’s total population is forecast to grow by roughly 55,000 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by nearly 110,000 over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069)

Coordinated Population Forecast for Malheur County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069

Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Malheur County include Adrian, Jordan Valley, Nyssa, Ontario, and Vale. Malheur County’s total population declined slightly in the 2000s; however, some of its sub-areas experienced minor population growth during this period. The population growth that did occur in Malheur County in the 2000s was largely the result of natural increase (more deaths than births). An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase) in every year from 2001 to 2017, though natural increase waned throughout this period, resulting in minimal population change. Total population in Malheur County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely decrease at a similar pace in the near-term (2019 to 2044) compared to the long-term. Population decline is a product of net out-migration outpacing natural increase. Malheur County’s total population is forecast to decline by 655 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by roughly 1,620 people over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069)

Coordinated Population Forecast for Lane County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Lane County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of just under one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Veneta and Creswell posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.2 and 3.1 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Lane County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration and in the early years, natural increase. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to shrink between 2007 and 2012. Since 2012, net in-migration has outpaced natural increase, driving rising population growth rates. Total population in Lane County as a whole as well as within many of its sub-areas is forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines and eventually becomes natural decrease, population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Lane County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 67,300 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 152,400 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period