Assessing trends in vaccine efficacy by pathogen genetic distance

Preventive vaccines are an effective public health intervention for reducing the burden of infectious diseases, but have yet to be developed for several major infectious diseases. Vaccine sieve analysis studies whether and how the efficacy of a vaccine varies with the genetics of the infectious pathogen, which may help guide future vaccine development and deployment. A standard statistical approach to sieve analysis compares the effect of the vaccine to prevent infection and disease caused by pathogen types defined dichotomously as genetically near or far from a reference pathogen strain inside the vaccine construct. For example, near may be defined by amino acid identity at all amino acid positions considered in a multiple alignment and far defined by at least one amino acid difference. An alternative approach is to study the efficacy of the vaccine as a function of genetic distance from a pathogen to a reference vaccine strain where the distance cumulates over the set of amino acid positions. We propose a nonparametric method for estimating and testing the trend in the effect of a vaccine across genetic distance. We illustrate the operating characteristics of the estimator via simulation and apply the method to a recent preventive malaria vaccine efficacy trial

HAI and NAI titer correlates of inactivated and live attenuated influenza vaccine efficacy

Abstract Background High hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) and neuraminidase inhibition (NAI) titers are generally associated with reduced influenza risk. While repeated influenza vaccination reduces seroresponse, vaccine effectiveness is not always reduced. Methods During the 2007-2008 influenza season, a randomized, placebo-controlled trial (FLUVACS) evaluated the efficacies of live-attenuated (LAIV) and inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV) among healthy adults aged 18-49 in Michigan; IIV vaccine efficacy (VE) and LAIV VE against influenza disease were estimated at 68% and 36%. Using the principal stratification/VE moderation framework, we analyzed data from this trial to assess how each VE varied by HAI or NAI responses to vaccination observed for vaccinated individuals and predicted counterfactually for placebo recipients. We also assessed how each VE varied with pre-vaccination/baseline variables including HAI titer, NAI titer, and vaccination history. Results IIV VE appeared to increase with Day 30 post-vaccination HAI titer, albeit not significantly (p=0.20 and estimated VE 14.4%, 70.5%, and 85.5% at titer below the assay lower quantification limit, 512, and 4096 (maximum)). Moreover, IIV VE increased significantly with Day 30 post-vaccination NAI titer (p=0.040), with estimated VE zero at titer 10 and 92.2% at highest titer 640. There was no evidence that fold-change in post-vaccination HAI or NAI titer associated with IIV VE (p=0.76, 0.38). For LAIV, there was no evidence that VE associated with post-vaccination or fold-rise HAI or NAI titers (p-values >0.40). For IIV, VE increased with increasing baseline NAI titer in those previously vaccinated, but VE decreased with increasing baseline NAI titer in those previously unvaccinated. In contrast, for LAIV, VE did not depend on previous vaccination or baseline HAI or NAI titer. Conclusions: Future efficacy trials should measure baseline and post-vaccination antibody titers in both vaccine and control/placebo recipients, enabling analyses to better elucidate correlates of vaccine- and natural-protection. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00538512. October 1, 2007.https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149182/1/12879_2019_Article_4049.pd

Infusion reactions after receiving the broadly neutralizing antibody VRC01 or placebo to reduce HIV-1 acquisition : results from the Phase 2b antibody-mediated prevention randomized trials

Presented at Conference for Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections; March 06–10, 2021.BACKGROUND : The antibody-mediated prevention (AMP) studies (HVTN 703/HPTN 081 and HVTN 704/HPTN 085) are harmonized phase 2b trials to assess HIV prevention efficacy and safety of intravenous infusion of anti-gp120 broadly neutralizing antibody VRC01. Antibodies for other indications can elicit infusion-related reactions (IRRs), often requiring premedication and limiting their application. We report on AMP study IRRs. METHODS : From 2016 to 2018, 2699 HIV-uninfected, at-risk men and transgender adults in the Americas and Switzerland (704/085) and 1924 at-risk heterosexual women in sub-Saharan Africa (703/081) were randomized 1:1:1 to VRC01 10 mg/kg, 30 mg/kg, or placebo. Participants received infusions every 8 weeks (n = 10/participant) over 72 weeks, with 104 weeks of follow-up. Safety assessments were conducted before and after infusion and at noninfusion visits. A total of 40,674 infusions were administered. RESULTS : Forty-seven participants (1.7%) experienced 49 IRRs in 704/085; 93 (4.8%) experienced 111 IRRs in 703/081 (P < 0.001). IRRs occurred more frequently in VRC01 than placebo recipients in 703/081 (P < 0.001). IRRs were associated with atopic history (P = 0.046) and with younger age (P = 0.023) in 703/081. Four clinical phenotypes of IRRs were observed: urticaria, dyspnea, dyspnea with rash, and “other.” Urticaria was most prevalent, occurring in 25 (0.9%) participants in 704/085 and 41 (2.1%) participants in 703/081. Most IRRs occurred with the initial infusion and incidence diminished through the last infusion. All reactions were managed successfully without sequelae. CONCLUSIONS : IRRs in the AMP studies were uncommon, typically mild or moderate, successfully managed at the research clinic, and resolved without sequelae. Analysis is ongoing to explore potential IRR mechanisms.Clinical trial funding from Janssen Vaccines.http://www.jaids.comhj2023School of Health Systems and Public Health (SHSPH

Genetic Diversity and Protective Efficacy of the RTS,S/AS01 Malaria Vaccine

The RTS,S/AS01 vaccine targets the circumsporozoite protein of Plasmodium falciparum and has partial protective efficacy against clinical and severe malaria disease in infants and children. We investigated whether the vaccine efficacy was specific to certain parasite genotypes at the circumsporozoite protein locus

Two randomized trials of neutralizing antibodies to prevent HIV-1 acquisition

BACKGROUND : Whether a broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) can be used to prevent human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) acquisition is unclear. METHODS : We enrolled at-risk cisgender men and transgender persons in the Americas and Europe in the HVTN 704/HPTN 085 trial and at-risk women in sub-Saharan Africa in the HVTN 703/HPTN 081 trial. Participants were randomly assigned to receive, every 8 weeks, infusions of a bnAb (VRC01) at a dose of either 10 or 30 mg per kilogram (low-dose group and high-dose group, respectively) or placebo, for 10 infusions in total. HIV-1 testing was performed every 4 weeks. The VRC01 80% inhibitory concentration (IC80) of acquired isolates was measured with the TZM-bl assay. RESULTS : Adverse events were similar in number and severity among the treatment groups within each trial. Among the 2699 participants in HVTN 704/HPTN 085, HIV-1 infection occurred in 32 in the low-dose group, 28 in the high-dose group, and 38 in the placebo group. Among the 1924 participants in HVTN 703/HPTN 081, infection occurred in 28 in the low-dose group, 19 in the high-dose group, and 29 in the placebo group. The incidence of HIV-1 infection per 100 person-years in HVTN 704/ HPTN 085 was 2.35 in the pooled VRC01 groups and 2.98 in the placebo group (estimated prevention efficacy, 26.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], −11.7 to 51.8; P = 0.15), and the incidence per 100 person-years in HVTN 703/HPTN 081 was 2.49 in the pooled VRC01 groups and 3.10 in the placebo group (estimated prevention efficacy, 8.8%; 95% CI, −45.1 to 42.6; P = 0.70). In prespecified analyses pooling data across the trials, the incidence of infection with VRC01-sensitive isolates (IC80 <1 μg per milliliter) per 100 person-years was 0.20 among VRC01 recipients and 0.86 among placebo recipients (estimated prevention efficacy, 75.4%; 95% CI, 45.5 to 88.9). The prevention efficacy against sensitive isolates was similar for each VRC01 dose and trial; VRC01 did not prevent acquisition of other HIV-1 isolates. CONCLUSIONS : VRC01 did not prevent overall HIV-1 acquisition more effectively than placebo, but analyses of VRC01-sensitive HIV-1 isolates provided proof-of-concept that bnAb prophylaxis can be effective.Supported by Public Health Service Grants (UM1 AI068614, to the HIV Vaccine Trials Network [HVTN]; UM1 AI068635, to the HVTN Statistical Data and Management Center [SDMC], Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center [FHCRC]; UM1 AI068618, to HVTN Laboratory Center, FHCRC; UM1 AI068619, to the HPTN Leadership and Operations Center; UM1 AI068613, to the HIV Prevention Trials Network [HPTN] Laboratory Center; UM1 AI068617, to the HPTN SDMC; and P30 AI027757, to the Center for AIDS Research, University of Washington) from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and by the Intramural Research Program of the NIAID.http://www.nejm.orgam2022School of Health Systems and Public Health (SHSPH

Sieve Analysis: Statistical Methods for Assessing Genotype-Specific Vaccine Protection in HIV-1 Efficacy Trials with Multivariate and Missing Genotypes

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2012The extensive diversity of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) poses a major challenge for the design of a successful preventive HIV-1 vaccine. Thus an important component of HIV-1 vaccine development is the assessment of the impact of HIV-1 diversity on vaccine protection against HIV-1 acquisition. Statistical methods to evaluate whether and how vaccine efficacy depends on genetic features of exposing viruses in data collected in randomized double-blinded placebo-controlled Phase IIb/III preventive HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trials are developed. To characterize exposing HIV-1 strains, their genetic distances to the multiple HIV-1 sequences included in the vaccine construct are measured, where the set of genetic distances is considered as the continuous multivariate `mark' observable in infected subjects only. A mark-specific vaccine efficacy model is described in the framework of competing risks failure time analysis that allows improved efficiency of estimation, relative to current alternative approaches, by using the semiparametric method of maximum profile likelihood estimation in the vaccine-to-placebo mark density ratio model. In addition, the model allows to employ a more efficient estimation method for the overall hazard ratio in the Cox model. Mark data proximal to the time of HIV-1 acquisition, that are of greatest biological relevance, are commonly subject to missingness due to the intra-host HIV-1 evolution. Two inferential approaches accommodating missing marks are proposed: (i) weighting of the complete cases by the inverse probabilities of observing the mark of interest (Horvitz and Thompson, 1952), and (ii) augmentation of the inverse probability weighted estimating functions for improved efficiency and model robustness by leveraging auxiliary information predictive of the mark (using the general theory of Robins, Rotnitzky, and Zhao (1994)). The missing-mark methods provide a general framework for parameter estimation in density ratio/biased sampling models in the presence of missing data. The proposed methodology can serve either to make inference about whether and how vaccine efficacy varies with prespecified genetic distance measures, or as an exploratory tool to identify distance definitions with the greatest decline in vaccine efficacy, characterizing potential correlates of immune protection and indicating pathways for improved HIV-1 vaccine design. The developed methods are applied to HIV-1 sequence data collected in the RV144 Phase III preventive HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial

Neutralizing antibody correlates of sequence specific dengue disease in a tetravalent dengue vaccine efficacy trial in Asia

In the CYD14 trial of the CYD-TDV dengue vaccine in 2-14 year-olds, neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers to the vaccine-insert dengue strains correlated inversely with symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD). Also, vaccine efficacy against VCD was higher against dengue prM/E amino acid sequences closer to the vaccine inserts. We integrated the nAb and sequence data types by assessing nAb titers as a correlate of sequence-specific VCD separately in the vaccine arm and in the placebo arm. In both vaccine and placebo recipients the correlation of nAb titer with sequence-specific VCD was stronger for dengue nAb contact site sequences closer to the vaccine (p = 0.005 and p = 0.012, respectively). The risk of VCD in vaccine (placebo) recipients was 6.7- (1.80)-fold lower at the 90th vs 10th percentile of nAb for viruses perfectly matched to CYD-TDV, compared to 2.1- (0.78)-fold lower at the 90th vs 10th percentile for viruses with five amino acid mismatches. The evidence for a stronger sequence-distance dependent correlate of risk for the vaccine arm indicates departure from the Prentice criteria for a valid sequence-distance specific surrogate endpoint and suggests that the nAb marker may affect dengue risk differently depending on whether nAbs arise from infection or also by vaccination. However, when restricting to baseline-seropositive 9-14 year-olds, the correlation pattern became more similar between the vaccine and placebo arms, supporting nAb titers as an approximate surrogate endpoint in this population. No sequence-specific nAb titer correlates of VCD were seen in baseline-seronegative participants. Integrated immune response/pathogen sequence data correlates analyses could help increase knowledge of correlates of risk and surrogate endpoints for other vaccines against genetically diverse pathogens. Trial registration: EU Clinical Trials Register 2014-001708-24; registration date 2014-05-26

Microneutralization assay titer correlates analysis in two phase 3 trials of the CYD-TDV tetravalent dengue vaccine in Asia and Latin America.

We previously showed that Month 13 50% plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT50) neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers against dengue virus (DENV) correlated with vaccine efficacy (VE) of CYD-TDV against symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD) in the CYD14 and CYD15 Phase 3 trials. While PRNT is the gold standard nAb assay, it is time-consuming and costly. We developed a next-generation high-throughput microneutralization (MN) assay and assessed its suitability for immune-correlates analyses and immuno-bridging applications. We analyzed MN and PRNT50 titers measured at baseline and Month 13 in a randomly sampled immunogenicity subset, and at Month 13 in nearly all VCD cases through Month 25. For each serotype, MN and PRNT50 titers showed high correlations, at both baseline and Month 13, with MN yielding a higher frequency of baseline-seronegatives. For both assays, Month 13 titer correlated inversely with VCD risk. Like PRNT50, high Month 13 MN titers were associated with high VE, and estimated VE increased with average Month 13 MN titer. We also studied each assay as a valid surrogate endpoint based on the Prentice criteria, which supported each assay as a valid surrogate for DENV-1 but only partially valid for DENV-2, -3, and -4. In addition, we applied Super-Learner to assess how well demographic, Month 13 MN, and/or Month 13 PRNT50 titers could predict Month 13-25 VCD outcome status; prediction was best when using demographic, MN, and PRNT50 information. We conclude that Month 13 MN titer performs comparably to Month 13 PRNT50 titer as a correlate of risk, correlate of vaccine efficacy, and surrogate endpoint. The MN assay could potentially be used to assess nAb titers in immunogenicity studies, immune-correlates studies, and immuno-bridging applications. Additional research would be needed for assessing the utility of MN titer in correlates analyses of other DENV endpoints and over longer follow-up periods