Stabilization of Effective Exchange Rates Under Common Currency Basket Systems

We investigate the extent to which a common currency basket peg would stabilize effective exchange rates of East Asian currencies. We use an AMU (Asian Monetary Unit), which is a weighted average of ASEAN10 plus 3 (Japan, China, and Korea) currencies, as a common currency basket to investigate the stabilization effects. We compare our results with another result on stabilization effects of the common G3 currency (the US dollar, the Japanese yen, and the euro) basket in the East Asian countries (Williamson (2005)). We obtained the following results: first, the AMU peg system would be more effective in reducing fluctuations of the effective exchange rates as more countries applied the AMU peg system in East Asia. Second, the AMU peg system would more effectively stabilize the effective exchange rates than a common G-3 currency basket peg system for four (Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand) of the seven countries. The results suggest that the AMU basket peg would be useful for the East Asian countries whose trade weights on Japan are relatively higher than others.

Asian Monetary Unit and Monetary Cooperation in Asia

Regional monetary and financial cooperation in Asia has been discussed for years. To move towards a coordinated exchange rate policy, Ogawa and Shimizu (2005) proposed both an Asian Monetary Unit (AMU), which is a common currency basket computed as a weighted average of the thirteen ASEAN+3 currencies, and AMU Deviation Indicators (AMU DIs), which indicates the deviation of each Asian currency in terms of the AMU compared with the benchmark rate. The AMU and the AMU DIs are considered both as surveillance measures under the Chiang Mai Initiative and as benchmarks for coordinated exchange rate policies among Asian countries. In this paper, the authors show that monitoring the AMU and the AMU DIs plays an important role in the regional surveillance process under the Chiang Mai Initiative. By using daily and monthly data of AMU and AMU DIs for the period from January 2000 to June 2010, which are available from the website of the Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry (RIETI), they examine their usefulness as a surveillance indicator. Our studies of AMU and AMU DIs confirm the following: first, an AMU peg system stabilizes the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) of each Asian country. Second, the AMU and the AMU DIs could signal overvaluation or undervaluation for each of the Asian currencies. Third, trade imbalances within the region have been growing as the AMU DIs have been widening. Fourth, the AMU DIs could predict huge capital inflows and outflows for each Asian country. The above findings support the usefulness of using the AMU and the AMU DIs as surveillance indicators for monetary cooperation in Asia.asian monetary unit; asian monetary cooperation; asian financial cooperation; chiang mai initiative; exchange rate policy; common currency basket; asian currencies

Risk Properties of AMU denominated Asian Bonds

This paper is to investigate risk properties of AMU (Asian Monetary Unit) denominated Asian bonds by comparing them with those of local currency denominated bonds issued in East Asian countries. We suppose the AMU as an Asian currency unit which is formed as a currency basket of East Asian currencies. In this paper, we simulate a currency basket composed by ASEAN5 countries, Japan, China, Korea, and Hong Kong. Our results indicate that the AMU denominated bonds can lower the risks for both US and Japanese investor. It is because the portfolio effects should reduce the foreign exchange risk. These results depend on the currency system in the East Asian countries.Asian bond, a currency basket, AMU(Asian Monetary Unit), foreign exchange risk

Signaling Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions and Expectation Heterogeneity among Traders

This paper explores whether official intervention signaling effects on short-run exchange rate movements depend on market conditions. We find evidence that announced interventions significantly affect the level and reduce the volatility of the yen/dollar rate when traders' expectations of future exchange rates are relatively heterogeneous. To compensate for the lack of daily exchange rate expectation survey data, we use implied volatility as a proxy since these are highly correlated. These results are consistent with predictions from the market microstructure models with asymmetric information across agents and the signaling hypothesis of foreign exchange interventions. Our findings indicate that the efficacy of intervention hinges not only on the firmness of signals but also on the degree of expectation heterogeneity among traders.Foreign exchange intervention, Announcements, Expectation heterogeneity

AMU Deviation Indicator for Coordinated Exchange Rate Policies in East Asia and its Relation with Effective Exchange Rates

The monetary authorities in East Asian countries have been strengthening their regional monetary cooperation since the Asian Currency Crisis in 1997. In this paper, we propose a deviation measurement for coordinated exchange rate policies in East Asia to enhance the monetary authorities' surveillance process for their regional monetary cooperation. We calculate the AMU as a weighted average of East Asian currencies following the method used to calculate the European Currency Unit (ECU) and the AMU Deviation Indicators, which how the degree of deviation from the hypothetical benchmark rate for each of the East Asian currencies in terms of the AMU. Furthermore, we investigate the relationships between the AMU and its Deviation Indicators and the effective exchange rates of each East Asian currency. As a result, we found the strong relationships between the AMU or the AMU Deviation Indicators and the effective exchange rates except for some currencies. These results indicate that the AMU Deviation Indicators have positive relationship with their effective exchange rates. Accordingly, we should monitor both the AMU and the AMU Deviation Indicator for the monetary authorities' surveillance in order to stabilize effective exchange rate in terms of trader partners'currencies.

AMU and Monetary Cooperation in Asia

Regional monetary and financial cooperation among the monetary authorities of Asian countries have been further strengthening through the recent global financial crisis in 2007-2008. Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of the ASEAN Members States, People’s Republic of China (PRC), Japan and Korea (ASEAN plus three) and the monetary authority of Hong Kong, China announced that the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) agreement came into effect on March 24, 2010. They also reached agreement on establishing a surveillance office, which is called an ASEAN plus three Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) and would ensure technical details of regional surveillance. The regional monetary cooperation in Asia has been discussed for years. For example, Ogawa and Shimizu (2005) proposed both an Asian Monetary Unit (AMU), which is a common currency basket computed as a weighted average of the thirteen ASEAN plus three currencies, and AMU Deviation Indicators (AMU DIs), which indicates deviation of each Asian currency in terms of the AMU compared with the benchmark rate. The AMU and the AMU DIs are considered as both surveillance measures under the Chiang Mai Initiative and coordinated exchange rate policies among Asian countries. In this paper, we show that monitoring the AMU and the AMU DIs plays an important role in the regional surveillance process under the CMIM. By using daily and monthly data of AMU and AMU DIs in the period between January 2000 to June 2010, which are available in a website of the Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry (RIETI), we examine their usefulness as a surveillance indicator. Our studies of AMU and AMU DIs confirm as follows: First, an AMU peg system stabilizes Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) of each Asian country. Second, the AMU and the AMU DIs could warn overvaluation or undervaluation for each of Asia currencies. Third, trade imbalances within the region have been growing as the AMU DIs have been widening. Forth, the AMU DIs could predict huge capital inflows and outflows for the Asian country. The above fact-findings support usefulness of using the AMU and the AMU DIs as surveillance indicators for monetary cooperation in Asia.regional monetary cooperation, common currency basket, Asian Monetary Unit

Stability of East Asian Currencies during the Global Financial Crisis

In this study, we investigate the movements of the nominal effective exchange rates (NEER) of East Asian currencies and the Asian Monetary Unit (AMU), which is the weighted average of East Asian currencies, during the course of the global financial crisis. We found that the NEER were more stable in countries that adopted the currency basket system even during the financial crisis. Comparisons made between the NEER and a combination of the AMU and AMU Deviation Indicators show intra-regional exchange rates among the East Asian currencies, and that there have been strong relationships between them before and after the global financial crisis. Accordingly, monitoring both the AMU and the AMU Deviation Indicators is effective in stabilizing the NEER of East Asian currencies. In this respect, our findings indicate that the AMU Deviation Indicators as well as the AMU will play a very important role in the surveillance of the stability of intra-regional exchange rates.currency basket system, effective exchange rate, global financial crisis, East Asian currencies

AMU Deviation Indicator for Coordinated Exchange Rate Policies in East Asia and its Relation with Effective Exchange Rates

The monetary authorities in East Asian countries have been strengthening their regional monetary cooperation since the Asian Currency Crisis in 1997. In this paper, we propose a deviation measurement for coordinated exchange rate policies in East Asia to enhance the monetary authorities' surveillance process for their regional monetary cooperation. We calculate the AMU as a weighted average of East Asian currencies following the method used to calculate the European Currency Unit (ECU) and the AMU Deviation Indicators, which how the degree of deviation from the hypothetical benchmark rate for each of the East Asian currencies in terms of the AMU. Furthermore, we investigate the relationships between the AMU and its Deviation Indicators and the effective exchange rates of each East Asian currency. As a result, we found the strong relationships between the AMU or the AMU Deviation Indicators and the effective exchange rates except for some currencies. These results indicate that the AMU Deviation Indicators have positive relationship with their effective exchange rates. Accordingly, we should monitor both the AMU and the AMU Deviation Indicator for the monetary authorities' surveillance in order to stabilize effective exchange rate in terms of trader partners' currencies.