Social Media Would Not Lie: Prediction of the 2016 Taiwan Election via Online Heterogeneous Data

The prevalence of online media has attracted researchers from various domains to explore human behavior and make interesting predictions. In this research, we leverage heterogeneous social media data collected from various online platforms to predict Taiwan's 2016 presidential election. In contrast to most existing research, we take a "signal" view of heterogeneous information and adopt the Kalman filter to fuse multiple signals into daily vote predictions for the candidates. We also consider events that influenced the election in a quantitative manner based on the so-called event study model that originated in the field of financial research. We obtained the following interesting findings. First, public opinions in online media dominate traditional polls in Taiwan election prediction in terms of both predictive power and timeliness. But offline polls can still function on alleviating the sample bias of online opinions. Second, although online signals converge as election day approaches, the simple Facebook "Like" is consistently the strongest indicator of the election result. Third, most influential events have a strong connection to cross-strait relations, and the Chou Tzu-yu flag incident followed by the apology video one day before the election increased the vote share of Tsai Ing-Wen by 3.66%. This research justifies the predictive power of online media in politics and the advantages of information fusion. The combined use of the Kalman filter and the event study method contributes to the data-driven political analytics paradigm for both prediction and attribution purposes

Underlaid Sensing Pilot for Integrated Sensing and Communications

This paper investigates a novel underlaid sensing pilot signal design for integrated sensing and communications (ISAC) in an OFDM-based communication system. The proposed two-dimensional (2D) pilot signal is first generated on the delay-Doppler (DD) plane and then converted to the time-frequency (TF) plane for multiplexing with the OFDM data symbols. The sensing signal underlays the OFDM data, allowing for the sharing of time-frequency resources. In this framework, sensing detection is implemented based on a simple 2D correlation, taking advantage of the favorable auto-correlation properties of the sensing pilot. In the communication part, the sensing pilot, served as a known signal, can be utilized for channel estimation and equalization to ensure optimal symbol detection performance. The underlaid sensing pilot demonstrates good scalability and can adapt to different delay and Doppler resolution requirements without violating the OFDM frame structure. Experimental results show the effective sensing performance of the proposed pilot, with only a small fraction of power shared from the OFDM data, while maintaining satisfactory symbol detection performance in communication.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure