The Long Run, Market Power and Retail Pricing

The paper uses the Johansen cointegration approach to analyse long-run pricing strategies of pork and chicken retailers in Austria. Long-run retail pricing strategy is found to be dependent on market share and price elasticity of demand for product. A combination of mark-up pricing strategy for pork and a competitive pricing strategy for chicken is considered by retailers to yield maximum profit. Long-run price adjustment reveals linkages to pricing strategy. The versatility of the Johansen cointegration technique as a tool capable of analysing both competitive and imperfect market situations is also revealed. The paper recommends meat policy to be product specific rather than holistic.Market power, Markup pricing, Cointegration, Long run

The Austrian Insurance Industry: A Structure, Conduct and Performance Analysis

There exist a vast number of studies on the banking industry. However, the insurance industry remains relatively unexplored. Increasingly, Austrian insurance institutions are becoming important as financial intermediaries in the domestic market, and – based on proximity advantage – also in the Central and Eastern European markets. This paper applies the structure, conduct and performance (SCP) approach to a sample of 52 Austrian insurance firms. The main finding is that the standard SCP hypothesis of highly concentrated markets, which create incentives to engage in collusive behaviour and which in turn leads to higher industry profit rates, cannot be supported by the Austrian insurance industry leads to higher industry profit rates, cannot be supported by the Austrian insurance industry.Insurance industry, Market structure, Conduct and performance, Industrial organisation

Inflation in the West African Countries. The Impact of Cocoa Prices, Budget Deficits, and Migrant Remittances

We verify whether cocoa prices could be a source of inflation in five countries of the West African region within a framework that includes other variables such as migrant remittances to the region and a fiscal policy variable represented by the government budget deficit. Unlike earlier studies that explicitly use money supply variables, the inclusion of migrant remittances enables us to examine the effect of an international capital flow variable on inflation. The results reveal that the influence of cocoa prices on consumer price inflation is strong and statistically significant. The influence of the budget deficit and the flow of migrant remittance variables on inflation are, however, weak.Inflation, West Africa, Cocoa, Budget deficits, Remittances

The Effects of Dollar/Sterling Exchange Rate Volatility on Futures Markets for Coffee and Cocoa

The paper investigates the extent to which the dollar/sterling exchange rate fluctuations affect coffee and cocoa futures prices on the London LIFFE and the New York CSCE by means of multivariate GARCH models - under the assumption that traders in perfectly competitive markets have equal access to all available information on changes in weather and in global demand and supply conditions. In three out of the four investigated cases, exchange rate posed as a main source of risk for the commodity futures price. The significance and form of volatility spill-over effects of a bilateral exchange rate are shown to be specific for commodity and market. A forecasting comparison on the basis of the identified models suggests that possible gains in prediction accuracy may be small.Commodity markets, Multivariate GARCH models, Exchange rates, Volatility, Forecasting

Seasonal Cycles in European Agricultural Commodity Prices

This paper explores the seasonal cycles of European agricultural commodity prices. We focus on three food crops (barley, soft and durum wheat) and on beef. We investigate whether seasonality is deterministic or unit-root stochastic and whether seasonal cycle for specific agricultural commodities have converged over time. Finally, we develop time-series models that are capable of forecasting agricultural prices on a quarterly basis. Firstly, we find that seasonal cycles in agricultural commodity prices are mainly deterministic and that evidence on common cycles across countries varies over agricultural commodities. The prediction experiments, however, yield a ranking with respect to accuracy that does not always match the statistical in-sample evidence.Seasonal cycles, Seasonal unit roots, Forecasting, Agricultural commodities

Toward a Theory of Evaluating Predictive Accuracy

We suggest a theoretical basis for the comparative evaluation of forecasts. Instead of the general assumption that the data is generated from a stochastic model, we classify three stages of prediction experiments: pure non-stochastic prediction of given data, stochastic prediction of given data, and double stochastic simulation. The concept is demonstrated using an empirical example of UK investment data.Forecasting, Time series, Investment

On Mean Reversion in Real Interest Rates: An Application of Threshold Cointegtation

Using data from Germany, Japan, UK, and the U.S., we explore possible threshold cointegration in nominal short- and long-run interest rates with corresponding inflation rates. Traditional cointegration implies perfect mean reversion in real rates and hence confirms the Fisher hypothesis. Threshold cointegration accounts for the possibility that this mean reversion is active only conditional on certain threshold values in the observed variables. We investigate whether findings of such effects can be exploited for interest rate prediction.Nonlinear time series, Fisher equation, Yield spread, Forecasting

Age-structured Human Capital and Spatial Total Factor Productivity Dynamics

This paper models total factor productivity (TFP) in space and proposes an empirical model for TFP interdependence across spatial locations. The interdependence is assumed to occur due to age-structured human capital dynamics. A semi-parametric spatial vector autoregressive framework is suggested for modeling spatial TFP dynamics where the role of demographic state and technological change are explicitly incorporated in the model to influence their spatial TFP co-movements. Empirical scrutiny in case of Asian countries suggests that cross-country human capital differences in their accumulation and appropriation pattern significantly influenced TFP volatility interdependence. The finding of complementarity in TFP in spatial locations calls for joint policy program for improving aggregate and individual country welfare.Total factor productivity, Spatial growth, Non-linearity, Human capital, Age-structure, Semi-parametric VAR

Forecasting Seasonally Cointegrated Systems: Supply Response in Austrian Agriculture

This paper examines the relevance of incorporating seasonality in agricultural supply models. Former studies have eliminated the problem of seasonality by using seasonally adjusted data. Recent developments in cointegration techniques allow the comprehensive modelling of error-correcting structures in the presence of seasonality. We consider a four-variables model for Austrian agriculture. Series on the producer price for soy beans, bulls and pigs, as well as the stock of breeding sows are included. A vector autoregression incorporating seasonal cointegration is estimated. A tentative interpretation of long-run and seasonal features is considered. The model is also used to generate forecasts for the supply of pigs in Austria.Seasonality, Agricultural Supply Response, Cointegration, Time Series