What’s up with the decline in female labor force participation?

This paper determines that the weaker positive pull of education into the labor market and weaker labor market conditions are the observed factors that contributed the most to the decline in the labor force participation rate (LFPR) between 2000 and 2004 among women ages 25–54. As is typical, however, unobserved factors contributed more than any single or combination of observed factors. Furthermore, if the unemployment rate rebounded to its level in 2000, the LFPR would still be 1.4 percentage points lower than it was in 2000.

Decomposing changes in the aggregate labor force participation rate

This paper presents a simple methodology for decomposing changes in the aggregate labor force participation rate (LFPR) over time into demographic group changes in labor force participation behavior and in population share. The purpose is to identify the relative importance of behavioral changes and population changes as driving forces behind changes in the aggregate LFPR.Labor supply

Employment growth and labor force participation: how many jobs are enough?

This paper demonstrates that, because of declining labor force participation rates, the usual estimates of job creation needed to keep unemployment in check are too high. It is estimated that only 98,000 jobs (rather than the usual goal of 150,000 jobs) need to be created per month to absorb the growing labor force. As the population ages, the labor force will grow even more slowly, and the number of jobs that need to be created will decline. This paper explores the potential implication of this decline in labor force growth on total output along with potential sources of replacement labor to fuel desired growth in the gross domestic product (GDP).

Changes in behavioral and characteristic determination of female labor force participation, 1975-2005

For policymakers, identifying the factors contributing to changes in labor force participation over time is important for setting appropriate policy regarding the nation’s productivity. Although the factors contributing to such changes over the past six decades have been well documented, more recent trends in women’s labor force participation beg further scrutiny. ; This article dissects the changes in the labor force participation rate over the past thirty years among women aged twenty-five to fifty-four. Using Current Population Survey data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the author focuses especially on the unprecedented 2.7 percentage point decline in women’s participation rate between 2000 and 2005. While changes in the observed behavior of educated women and in characteristics such as the number of young children have contributed to the decline, the results suggest that the largest contributors have been unobserved changes. From a policy perspective, the presence of unobservables is not very satisfying or informative. Nonetheless, the large role of unobservables in determining labor force participation rates suggests that a rebound to participation rates seen in 2000 is not obviously forthcoming or likely to be easily predictable. The next step in studying these trends, the author believes, is further investigation of how labor force participation decisions are made in a family context and how these decisions have changed over time. ; From a policy perspective, the presence of unobservables is not very satisfying or informative. Nonetheless, the large role of unobservables in determining labor force participation rates suggests that a rebound to participation rates seen in 2000 is not obviously forthcoming or likely to be easily predictable. The next step in studying these trends, the author believes, is further investigation of how labor force participation decisions are made in a family context and how these decisions have changed over time.Women - Employment

Changes in the aggregate labor force participation rate

This paper presents a simple methodology for decomposing changes in the aggregate labor force participation rate (LFPR) into demographic group changes in both participation behavior and population shares. Changes in population shares dominated behavioral changes in the historical evolution of the aggregate LFPR

Urban Welfare-to-Work Transitions in the 1990s: Patterns in Six Urban Areas

This report focuses on patterns of welfare use and employment for welfare leavers for central counties in each of six metropolitan areas

Assessing the Welfare Impact of the 2001 Tax Reform on Dual-earner Families

The welfare impact of the 2001 income tax reform is assessed across dual-earner families with different characteristics. A household labor supply model is estimated to account for variable behavioral responses by family type. It was found that while higher education families received a larger share of the welfare gain generated from lower marginal tax rates, it was the lower education families that provided the bulk of the additional labor supply motivated by the tax reform. Differing welfare gains across families with different numbers of children were also found, highlighting the importance of allowing responses to vary across family characteristics when assessing the welfare impact of a policy change. Working Paper 07-3

Decomposing the education wage gap: everything but the kitchen sink

The authors use a multitude of data sources to provide a comprehensive, multidimensional decomposition of wages across both time and educational status. Their results confirm the importance of investments in and use of technology, which has been the focus of most of the previous literature. The authors also show that demand and supply factors played very different roles in the growing wage gaps of the 1980s and 1990s.Education - Economic aspects ; Wages ; Education

The impact of 9/11 on hours of work in the United States

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether workers’ commitment to the labor force declined after 9/11, as many popular press accounts at the time suggested it would. The results indicate that any measured decline in hours spent working was the result of economic conditions rather than changes in desired hours of work. Controlling for economic conditions, hours of work after 9/11 actually increased on average compared to before 9/11; no significant change in hours spent working occurred among residents of New York City, however.

Decomposing the education wage gap: everything but the kitchen sink

This paper contributes to a large literature concerned with identifying the source of the widening wage gap between high school and college graduates by providing a comprehensive, multidimensional decomposition of wages across both time and educational status. Data from a multitude of sources are brought to bear on the question of the relative importance of labor market supply and demand factors in the determination of those wage differences. The results confirm the importance of investments in and use of technology, which has been the focus of most of the previous literature, but are also able to show that demand and supply factors played very different roles in the growing wage gaps of the 1980s and 1990s.