Correlating Stochastically Distributed Reservoir Heterogeneities with Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage Production

International audienceApplication of big data analytics in reservoir engineering has gained wide attention in recent years. However, designing practical data-driven models for correlating petrophysical measurements and Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) production profiles using actual field data remains difficult. Parameterization of the complex reservoir heterogeneities in these reservoirs is not trivial. In this study, a set of attributes pertinent to characterizing stochastic distributions of shales and lean zones is formulated and used for correlating against a number of production performance measures. A comprehensive investigation of the heterogeneous distribution (continuity, size, proportions, permeability, location, orientation and saturation) of shale barriers and lean zones is presented. First, a series of two-dimensional SAGD models based on typical Athabasca oil reservoir properties and operating conditions are constructed. Geostatistical techniques are applied to stochastically model shale barriers, which are imbedded in a region of degraded rock properties referred to as Low-Quality Sand or LQS, among a background of clean sand. Parameters including correlation lengths, orientation, proportions and permeability anisotropy of the different rock facies are varied. Within each facies, spatial variations in water saturation are modeled probabilistically. In contrast to many previous simulation studies, representative multiphase flow functions and capillarity models are assigned in accordance to individual facies. A set of input attributes based on facies proportions and dimensionless correlation lengths are formulated. Next, to facilitate the assessment of different scenarios, production performance is quantified by numerous dimensionless output attributes defined from recovery factor and steam-to-oil ratio profiles. An additional dimensionless indicator is implemented to capture the production time during which the instantaneous steam-to-oil ratio has exceeded a particular economic threshold. Finally, results of the sensitivity analysis are employed as training and testing datasets in a series of neural network models to correlate the pertinent system attributes and the production performance measures. These models are also used to assess the consequences of ignoring lateral variation of heterogeneities when extracting petrophysical (log) data from vertical delineation wells alone. An important contribution of this work is that it proposes a set of input attributes for correlating reservoir heterogeneity introduced by shale barriers and lean zones to SAGD production performance. It demonstrates that these input attributes, which can be extracted from petrophysical logs, are highly correlated with the ensuing recovery response and heat loss. This work also exemplifies the feasibility and utility of data-driven models in correlating SAGD performance. Furthermore, the proposed set of system variables and modeling approach can be applied directly in field-data analysis and scale-up study of experimental models to assist field-operation design and evaluation

Lack of benefits for prevention of cardiovascular disease with aspirin therapy in type 2 diabetic patients - a longitudinal observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The risk-benefit ratio of aspirin therapy in prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains contentious, especially in type 2 diabetes. This study examined the benefit and harm of low-dose aspirin (daily dose < 300 mg) in patients with type 2 diabetes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This is a longitudinal observational study with primary and secondary prevention cohorts based on history of CVD at enrolment. We compared the occurrence of primary composite (non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke and vascular death) and secondary endpoints (upper GI bleeding and haemorrhagic stroke) between aspirin users and non-users between January 1995 and July 2005.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 6,454 patients (mean follow-up: median [IQR]: 4.7 [4.4] years), usage of aspirin was 18% (n = 1,034) in the primary prevention cohort (n = 5731) and 81% (n = 585) in the secondary prevention cohort (n = 723). After adjustment for covariates, in the primary prevention cohort, aspirin use was associated with a hazard-ratio of 2.07 (95% CI: 1.66, 2.59, p < 0.001) for primary endpoint. There was no difference in CVD event rate in the secondary prevention cohort. Overall, aspirin use was associated with a hazard-ratio of 2.2 (1.53, 3.15, p < 0.001) of GI bleeding and 1.71 (1.00, 2.95, p = 0.051) of haemorrhagic stroke. The absolute risk of aspirin-related GI bleeding was 10.7 events per 1,000 person-years of treatment.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In Chinese type 2 diabetic patients, low dose aspirin was associated with a paradoxical increase in CVD risk in primary prevention and did not confer benefits in secondary prevention. In addition, the risk of GI bleeding in aspirin users was rather high.</p

European bone mineral density loci are also associated with BMD in East-Asian populations

To access publisher full text version of this article. Please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links fieldMost genome-wide association (GWA) studies have focused on populations of European ancestry with limited assessment of the influence of the sequence variants on populations of other ethnicities. To determine whether markers that we have recently shown to associate with Bone Mineral Density (BMD) in Europeans also associate with BMD in East-Asians we analysed 50 markers from 23 genomic loci in samples from Korea (n = 1,397) and two Chinese Hong Kong sample sets (n = 3,869 and n = 785). Through this effort we identified fourteen loci that associated with BMD in East-Asian samples using a false discovery rate (FDR) of 0.05; 1p36 (ZBTB40, P = 4.3×10(-9)), 1p31 (GPR177, P = 0.00012), 3p22 (CTNNB1, P = 0.00013), 4q22 (MEPE, P = 0.0026), 5q14 (MEF2C, P = 1.3×10(-5)), 6q25 (ESR1, P = 0.0011), 7p14 (STARD3NL, P = 0.00025), 7q21 (FLJ42280, P = 0.00017), 8q24 (TNFRSF11B, P = 3.4×10(-5)), 11p15 (SOX6, P = 0.00033), 11q13 (LRP5, P = 0.0033), 13q14 (TNFSF11, P = 7.5×10(-5)), 16q24 (FOXL1, P = 0.0010) and 17q21 (SOST, P = 0.015). Our study marks an early effort towards the challenge of cataloguing bone density variants shared by many ethnicities by testing BMD variants that have been established in Europeans, in East-Asians

The Complexity of Vascular and Non-Vascular Complications of Diabetes: The Hong Kong Diabetes Registry

Diabetes is a complex disease characterized by chronic hyperglycemia and multiple phenotypes. In 1995, we used a doctor-nurse-clerk team and structured protocol to establish the Hong Kong Diabetes Registry in a quality improvement program. By 2009, we had accrued 2616 clinical events in 9588 Chinese type 2 diabetic patients with a follow-up duration of 6 years. The detailed phenotypes at enrollment and follow-up medications have allowed us to develop a series of risk equations to predict multiple endpoints with high sensitivity and specificity. In this prospective database, we were able to validate findings from clinical trials in real practice, confirm close links between cardiovascular and renal disease, and demonstrate the emerging importance of cancer as a leading cause of death. In addition to serving as a tool for risk stratification and quality assurance, ongoing data analysis of the registry also reveals secular changes in disease patterns and identifies unmet needs

Association between Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Risk in Chinese Youth Independent of Age and Pubertal Stage

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Childhood and adolescence are critical periods of habit formation with substantial tracking of lifestyle and cardiovascular risk into adulthood. There are various guidelines on recommended levels of physical activity in youth of school-age. Despite the epidemic of obesity and diabetes in China, there is a paucity of data in this regard in Chinese youth. We examined the association of self-reported level of physical activity and cardiovascular risk in Hong Kong Chinese youth of school-age.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This was a cross-sectional study conducted in 2007-8 in a school setting with 2119 Hong Kong Chinese youth aged 6-20 years. Physical activity level was assessed using a validated questionnaire, CUHK-PARCY (The Chinese University of Hong Kong: Physical Activity Rating for Children and Youth). A summary risk score comprising of waist circumference, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose and lipids was constructed to quantify cardiovascular risk.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In this cohort, 21.5% reported high level of physical activity with boys being more active than girls (32.1% versus 14.1%, p < 0.001). Regression analysis showed physical activity level, sex and pubertal stage were independently associated with cardiovascular risk score.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Self-reported level of physical activity is associated with cardiovascular risk factors in Chinese youth after adjusting for sex and pubertal stage.</p

Genetic Associations of Type 2 Diabetes with Islet Amyloid Polypeptide Processing and Degrading Pathways in Asian Populations

10.1371/journal.pone.0062378PLoS ONE86

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens