Systematic Errors in the Estimation of Black Hole Masses by Reverberation Mapping

The mass of the central black hole in many active galactic nuclei has been estimated on the basis of the assumption that the dynamics of the broad emission line gas are dominated by the gravity of the black hole. The most commonly-employed method is to estimate a characteristic size-scale $r_*$ from reverberation mapping experiments and combine it with a characteristic velocity $v_*$ taken from the line profiles; the inferred mass is then estimated by $r_* v_*^2/G$. We critically discuss the evidence supporting the assumption of gravitational dynamics and find that the arguments are still inconclusive. We then explore the range of possible systematic error if the assumption of gravitational dynamics is granted. Inclination relative to a flattened system may cause a systematic underestimate of the central mass by a factor $\sim (h/r)^2$, where $h/r$ is the aspect ratio of the flattening. The coupled effects of a broad radial emissivity distribution, an unknown angular radiation pattern of line emission, and sub-optimal sampling in the reverberation experiment can cause additional systematic errors as large as a factor of 3 or more in either direction.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures, AASLaTeX, accepted by Ap

Bulk and surface transitions in asymmetric simple exclusion process: Impact on boundary layers

In this paper, we study boundary-induced phase transitions in a particle non-conserving asymmetric simple exclusion process with open boundaries. Using boundary layer analysis, we show that the key signatures of various bulk phase transitions are present in the boundary layers of the density profiles. In addition, we also find possibilities of surface transitions in the low- and high- density phases. The surface transition in the low-density phase provides a more complete description of the non-equilibrium critical point found in this system.Comment: 9 pages including figure

Research returns redux: a meta-analysis of the returns to agricultural R&D

A total of 294 studies of returns to agricultural R&D (including extension) were compiled and these studies provide 1,858 separate estimates of rates of return. This includes some extreme values, which are implausible. When the highest and lowest 2.5 percent of the rates of return were set aside, the estimated annual rates of return averaged 73 percent overall–88 percent for research only, 45 percent for research and extension, and 79 percent for extension only. But these averages reveal little meaningful information from a large and diverse body of literature, which provides rate-of-return estimates that are often not directly comparable. The purpose of this study was to go behind the averages, and try to account for the sources of differences, in a meta-analysis of the studies of returns to agricultural R&D. The results conform with the theory and prior beliefs in many ways. Several features of the methods used by research evaluators matter, in particular assumptions about lag lengths and the nature of the research-induced supply shift.Rate of return., Agricultural research.,

Microcanonical Origin of the Maximum Entropy Principle for Open Systems

The canonical ensemble describes an open system in equilibrium with a heat bath of fixed temperature. The probability distribution of such a system, the Boltzmann distribution, is derived from the uniform probability distribution of the closed universe consisting of the open system and the heat bath, by taking the limit where the heat bath is much larger than the system of interest. Alternatively, the Boltzmann distribution can be derived from the Maximum Entropy Principle, where the Gibbs-Shannon entropy is maximized under the constraint that the mean energy of the open system is fixed. To make the connection between these two apparently distinct methods for deriving the Boltzmann distribution, it is first shown that the uniform distribution for a microcanonical distribution is obtained from the Maximum Entropy Principle applied to a closed system. Then I show that the target function in the Maximum Entropy Principle for the open system, is obtained by partial maximization of Gibbs-Shannon entropy of the closed universe over the microstate probability distributions of the heat bath. Thus, microcanonical origin of the Entropy Maximization procedure for an open system, is established in a rigorous manner, showing the equivalence between apparently two distinct approaches for deriving the Boltzmann distribution. By extending the mathematical formalism to dynamical paths, the result may also provide an alternative justification for the principle of path entropy maximization as well.Comment: 12 pages, no figur

Results of 1/4-Scale Experiments. Vapor Simulant And Liquid Jet A Tests

A quarter-scale engineering model of the center wing tank (CWT) of a 747-100 was constructed. This engineering model replicated the compartmentalization, passageways, and venting to the atmosphere. The model was designed to scale the fluid dynamical and combustion aspects of the explosion, not the structural failure of the beams or spars. The effect of structural failure on combustion was examined by using model beams and spars with deliberately engineered weak connections to the main tank structure. The model was filled with a simulant fuel (a mixture of propane and hydrogen) and ignited with a hot wire. The simulant fuel was chosen on the basis of laboratory testing to model the combustion characteristics (pressure rise and flame speed) of Jet A vapor created by a Jet A liquid layer at 50C at an altitude of 13.8 kft. A series of experiments was carried out in this model in order to: (a) investigate combustion in a CWT geometry; and (b) provide guidance to the TWA 800 crash investigation. The results of the experiments were observed with high-speed film, video, and still cameras, fast and slow pressure sensors, thermocouples, photodetectors, and motion sensors. A special pseudo-schlieren system was used to visualize flame propagation within the tank. This report describes the test program, facility, instrumentation, the first 30 experiments, comparisons between experiments, and performance of the instrumentation; then examines the significance of these results to the TWA 800 crash investigation. The key results of this study are: Flame Motion: The motion of flame was dominated by the effects of turbulence created by jetting through the passageways and vent stringers. A very rapid combustion event (lasting 10 to 20 ms) occurred once the flame traveled outside of the ignition bay and interacted with the turbulent flow. Most of the gas within the tank was burned during this rapid event. Compartments: The combustion time decreased with an increasing number of compartments (bays) within the tank. With six bays, combustion took only 100 to 150 ms to be completed from the time of ignition until the end of the rapid combustion phase. The total combustion event was three to four times shorter with compartments than without. Venting: Venting to the outside of the tank through the model vent stringers had a negligible effect on the combustion progress or on the peak pressure reached at the end of the burn. Ignition Location: Variation of the ignition location produced distinctive pressure loads on the structural components. Liquid Fuel: Lofting of a cold liquid fuel layer was produced by the combustion-induced gas motion. Although this spray of liquid eventually ignited and burned, it did not contribute to the pressure loading. Structural Failure: Structural failure resulted in flame acceleration, decreasing the overall combustion time. TWA 800 Investigation: The pressure loads were sufficiently high, up to 4 bar, and the combustion events were sufficiently short, that the forward portion (spanwise beam 3, front spar) of the CWT structure would fail as a direct consequence of the explosion. A combination of pressure loads was produced in some tests consistent with the TWA 800 wreckage. Replica tests, structural modeling, and sensitivity studies on fuel concentration are needed before any conclusions can be drawn about probable ignition locations. Cargo Bay: Tests with a simplified model of a half-full cargo bay indicated that repeated pressure waves with an amplitude of 1 bar or less are produced when an explosion scenario similar to TWA 800 is tested. Future Testing: Future studies should include replica tests, tests with Jet A vapor and warm liquid Jet A layers, and sensitivity tests to examine ignition location, fuel concentration, and vent area perturbations. Summary: Explosion tests in a 747-100 CWT model reveal that a very complex pattern of combustion occurs due the interaction of the flame and the flow-generated turbulence. A wide range of structural load patterns occur, depending on the location of the ignition source. Some of these load patterns are consistent with damage believed to be associated with the initial explosion event in TWA 800. Sensitivity of the loading to the ignition location indicates that narrowing down the ignition location in TWA 800 may be possible. However, the complexity of the combustion and structural failure processes in the actual center wing tank mandates extremely careful consideration of the uncertainties that enter into this process

Chloride channels in stellate cells are essential for uniquely high secretion rates in neuropeptide-stimulated Drosophila diuresis

Epithelia frequently segregate transport processes to specific cell types, presumably for improved efficiency and control. The molecular players underlying this functional specialization are of particular interest. In Drosophila, the renal (Malpighian) tubule displays the highest per-cell transport rates known and has two main secretory cell types, principal and stellate. Electrogenic cation transport is known to reside in the principal cells, whereas stellate cells control the anion conductance, but by an as-yet-undefined route. Here, we resolve this issue by showing that a plasma membrane chloride channel, encoded by ClC-a, is exclusively expressed in the stellate cell and is required for Drosophila kinin-mediated induction of diuresis and chloride shunt conductance, evidenced by chloride ion movement through the stellate cells, leading to depolarization of the transepithelial potential. By contrast, ClC-a knockdown had no impact on resting secretion levels. Knockdown of a second CLC gene showing highly abundant expression in adult Malpighian tubules, ClC-c, did not impact depolarization of transepithelial potential after kinin stimulation. Therefore, the diuretic action of kinin in Drosophila can be explained by an increase in ClC-a–mediated chloride conductance, over and above a resting fluid transport level that relies on other (ClC-a–independent) mechanisms or routes. This key segregation of cation and anion transport could explain the extraordinary fluid transport rates displayed by some epithelia

Patients' request for and emergency physicians' prescription of antimicrobial prophylaxis for anthrax during the 2001 bioterrorism-related outbreak

BACKGROUND: Inappropriate use of antibiotics by individuals worried about biological agent exposures during bioterrorism events is an important public health concern. However, little is documented about the extent to which individuals with self-identified risk of anthrax exposure approached physicians for antimicrobial prophylaxis during the 2001 bioterrorism attacks in the United States. METHODS: We conducted a telephone survey of randomly selected members of the Pennsylvania Chapter of the American College of Emergency Physicians to assess patients' request for and emergency physicians' prescription of antimicrobial agents during the 2001 anthrax attacks. RESULTS: Ninety-seven physicians completed the survey. Sixty-four (66%) respondents had received requests from patients for anthrax prophylaxis; 16 (25%) of these physicians prescribed antibiotics to a total of 23 patients. Ten physicians prescribed ciprofloxacin while 8 physicians prescribed doxycycline. CONCLUSION: During the 2001 bioterrorist attacks, the majority of the emergency physicians we surveyed encountered patients who requested anthrax prophylaxis. Public fears may lead to a high demand for antibiotic prophylaxis during bioterrorism events. Elucidation of the relationship between public health response to outbreaks and outcomes would yield insights to ease burden on frontline clinicians and guide strategies to control inappropriate antibiotic allocation during bioterrorist events

Splendide Mendax: False Label Claims about High and Rising Alcohol Content of Wine

Many economists and others are interested in the phenomenon of rising alcohol content of wine and its potential causes. Has the alcohol content of wine risen—and if so, by how much, where, and when? What roles have been played by climate change and other environmental factors compared with evolving consumer preferences and expert ratings? In this paper we explore these questions using international evidence, combining time-series data on the alcohol content of wine from a large number of countries that experienced different patterns of climate change and influences of policy and demand shifts. We also examine the relationship between the actual alcohol content of wine and the alcohol content stated on the label. The systematic patterns here suggest that rising alcohol content of wine may be a nuisance by-product of producer responses to perceived market preferences for wines having riper, more-intense flavors, possibly in conjunction with evolving climate.wine grapes, alcohol percentage, climate change, labeling errors, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Marketing,