Exchange rate arrangements in the run-up to the EMU: some experience in currency board countries

Since the beginning of the transition process from centrally planed to market economies, East European countries have experienced relatively high inflation and a market depreciation of their currency. Their monetary systems have gone through dramatic changes in the recent ten years, making the transition from a mono-bank to the traditional autonomous central bank. Some have adopted a currency board arrangement (CBA). Three candidate countries to the European Union (EU) - Bulgaria, Estonia and Lithuania -face the perspective of becoming a full-fledged members of the EU and after of the European Monetary Union (EMU). This paper investigates the issues and advantages of CBAs, especially in three transition countries (Estonia, Lithuania and Bulgaria) in the context of accession to the EU and to the European Monetary Union (EMU).European Monetary Union, currency board arrangement, Exchange rate arrangements, CEE

Education in the East, Emigrating to the West?

This paper examines the potential impacts of East-West migration of talents on the innovative capital and hence the long-run growth prospects in Eastern sending countries. Complementing previous studies, we examine the impact of high skill migration not only on the formation of human capital, but also consider migration's impact on knowledge capital in the sending countries. In line with previous studies we find that in the short- to medium-term high skill migration strictly reduces national innovative capital and hence increases the gap between East and West. However, these effects might be mitigated by factors such as reinforced education of workers, productive investment of remittances, return migration and increased knowledge transfer. Given that the emigration of highly skilled affects human capital differently than knowledge capital, addressing the adverse impacts of the most talented and highly skilled worker emigration efficiently, differentiated policies are required for human capital and knowledge capital.International labour migration, skilled workers, growth, human capital.

European Integration and Labour Migration

The present paper studies how European integration might affect the migration of workers in the enlarged EU. Unlike the reduced-form migration models, we base our empirical analysis on the theory of economic geography à la Krugman (1991), which provides an alternative modelling of migration pull and push factors. Parameters of the theoretical model are estimated econometrically using historical migration data. Our empirical findings suggest that European integration would trigger selective migration between the countries in the enlarged EU. In the Baltics, Lithuania would gain about 7.25% of the total work force. In the Visegrád Four, the share of the mobile labour force would increase the most in Hungary, 8.35%, compared to the pre-integration state. Our predictions for the East-West migration are moderate and lower than those of reduced-form models: between 5.44% (from the Baltics) and 3.61% (from the Visegrád Four) would emigrate to the EU North. Because migrants not only follow market potential, but also shape the region’s market potential, the long-run agglomeration forces are sufficiently weak to make a swift emergence of a core-periphery pattern in the enlarged EU very unlikely

Exchange rate arrangements in the run-up to the EMU: some experience in currency board countries

Since the beginning of the transition process from centrally planed to market economies, East European countries have experienced relatively high inflation and a market depreciation of their currency. Their monetary systems have gone through dramatic changes in the recent ten years, making the transition from a mono-bank to the traditional autonomous central bank. Some have adopted a currency board arrangement (CBA). Three candidate countries to the European Union (EU) - Bulgaria, Estonia and Lithuania -face the perspective of becoming a full-fledged members of the EU and after of the European Monetary Union (EMU). This paper investigates the issues and advantages of CBAs, especially in three transition countries (Estonia, Lithuania and Bulgaria) in the context of accession to the EU and to the European Monetary Union (EMU)

Strukturwandel im baltischen Lebensmittelhandel

Im zentralplanwirtschaftlichen System der ehemaligen Sowjetunion war der Einzel-und Großhandel stark vernachlässigt. In den Transformationsjahren nahm sein Beitrag sowohl gemessen an seinem Anteil am BIP als auch anhand der Zahl der Beschäftigten erheblich zu. Das Ziel dieses Diskussionspapiers ist es, die Entwicklung der Strukturen im baltischen Lebensmittelhandel zu analysieren. Besonderes Interesse gilt dabei den Veränderungen der Betriebs- und Organisationsformen sowie der Marktstruktur. Die Umstrukturierung der Wirtschaft hatte erhebliche Veränderungen im baltischen Lebensmittelhandel zur Folge. Zu Reformbeginn führte die Privatisierung und zahlreiche Neugründungen zu einer Zersplitterung des Lebensmittelhandels. Leichte Teilbarkeit der zu privatisierenden Handelsbetriebe sowie mangelnde Kapitalverfügbarkeit der neuen Unternehmer hatte zur Folge, dass vor allem kleine (Familien-)Betriebe gegründet wurden. Seit 1996 sind zunehmende Konzentrationstendenzen zu beobachten. Durch die Modernisierung innovativer inländischen Unternehmen und dem Engagement westlicher Handelsorganisationen hat sich der Wettbewerbsdruck auf dem baltischen Lebensmittelmarkt stark erhöht. Die Dynamik des Wettbewerbs zeigt sich anhand zahlreicher Markteintritte (westlicher Handelsketten) und -austritte (unrentabler heimischer Unternehmen) sowie anhand zunehmender Konzentration von Marktanteilen bei größeren Unternehmen. Diese Entwicklungen lassen eine Erhöhung der Effizienz im baltischen Lebensmittelhandel erwarten.In the centrally planned economy of the former Soviet Union, retail and wholesale trade were very much neglected. Since the beginning of transition the share of trade has increased considerably both in terms of its contribution to national product and employment. This paper analyses the structural development in the food retail sector of the Baltic states since the beginning of transition. It focuses mainly on the organisational changes, and change of the forms of enterprises as well as on changes in market structure in the Baltic food retail trade. The transformation of the economy has resulted in substantial changes in the Baltic food retail sector. At the beginning of reformation privatisation and establishment of numerous new forms has led to fragmentation in the food retail trade. Easy divisibility of trade enterprises included into privatisations as well as the lack of capital for new entrepreneurs are the major reason for the creation of mostly small (family) enterprises. However, from 1996 an increased tendency to concentration can be observed. Competition on the Baltic food market has intensified due to the modernisation of innovative domestic enterprises and appearance of western trading organisations. The dynamics of the competition becomes obvious by numerous market entrances (western trade concerns) and exits (of unprofitable domestic enterprises) as well as by an increased concentration of larger enterprises. This development allows to expect an efficiency increase in the Baltic food trade

Analysing Sectoral Competitiveness: A Framework of Strategic Management

In the recent years several key industries in the CEE transition economies, such as food and beverage, once epitomised industrial supremacy have lost significant market shares to their foreign competitors, both at home and abroad. Recognising the fact that once pre-eminent world-wide economic position of former socialist economies has significantly eroded in recent years, our study examines the competitive implications of the major determinants of competitiveness within a framework favoured by the strategic management theory. We develop an analytical framework for analysing industrial competitiveness and apply it to the food sector and it's related industries. Our empirical findings suggest that the process of distribution has developed from a conduit between the functions of production and consumption to a position where it exerts considerable influence on both the process of production and the pattern of consumption. Further, we find that the structure of retailing in the accession countries of European Union is largely oligopolistic and the level of concentration continues to increase. Retailers are increasingly vertically integrated with dedicated distribution systems substantially replacing the role of the wholesaler.Competitiveness, market structure, strategic management, oligopoly

Migration in the Enlarged European Union: Empirical Evidence for Labour Mobility in the Baltic States

The free movement of workers is a highly controversial issue with regard to the Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU). Members of the EU are extremely anxious of mass immigration flows from Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEECs). This paper estimates the potential migration and analyses socio-economic impacts of migration in the context of the EU enlargement. How many people might migrate from the Eastern European transition countries to Western Europe, and what will be the socio-economic consequences for home and host countries? In order to answer these questions we draw on previous literature as well as on our empirical work. In the empirical analysis we evaluate the size and the structure of current and future migration to Western Europe. In particular, we estimate the future migration pressure, based on economic conditions in the Baltic States and Western Europe. Our empirical results suggest that depending on assumptions 3-5 percent of home countries working population might emigrate after opening labour markets in the old EU member states.International labour migration, EU integration, panel data, econometric model

Strukturwandel im baltischen Lebensmittelhandel

Im zentralplanwirtschaftlichen System der ehemaligen Sowjetunion war der Einzel-und Großhandel stark vernachlässigt. In den Transformationsjahren nahm sein Beitrag sowohl gemessen an seinem Anteil am BIP als auch anhand der Zahl der Beschäftigten erheblich zu. Das Ziel dieses Diskussionspapiers ist es, die Entwicklung der Strukturen im baltischen Lebensmittelhandel zu analysieren. Besonderes Interesse gilt dabei den Veränderungen der Betriebs- und Organisationsformen sowie der Marktstruktur. Die Umstrukturierung der Wirtschaft hatte erhebliche Veränderungen im baltischen Lebensmittelhandel zur Folge. Zu Reformbeginn führte die Privatisierung und zahlreiche Neugründungen zu einer Zersplitterung des Lebensmittelhandels. Leichte Teilbarkeit der zu privatisierenden Handelsbetriebe sowie mangelnde Kapitalverfügbarkeit der neuen Unternehmer hatte zur Folge, dass vor allem kleine (Familien-)Betriebe gegründet wurden. Seit 1996 sind zunehmende Konzentrationstendenzen zu beobachten. Durch die Modernisierung innovativer inländischen Unternehmen und dem Engagement westlicher Handelsorganisationen hat sich der Wettbewerbsdruck auf dem baltischen Lebensmittelmarkt stark erhöht. Die Dynamik des Wettbewerbs zeigt sich anhand zahlreicher Markteintritte (westlicher Handelsketten) und -austritte (unrentabler heimischer Unternehmen) sowie anhand zunehmender Konzentration von Marktanteilen bei größeren Unternehmen. Diese Entwicklungen lassen eine Erhöhung der Effizienz im baltischen Lebensmittelhandel erwarten. -- E N G L I S H V E R S I O N: In the centrally planned economy of the former Soviet Union, retail and wholesale trade were very much neglected. Since the beginning of transition the share of trade has increased considerably both in terms of its contribution to national product and employment. This paper analyses the structural development in the food retail sector of the Baltic states since the beginning of transition. It focuses mainly on the organisational changes, and change of the forms of enterprises as well as on changes in market structure in the Baltic food retail trade. The transformation of the economy has resulted in substantial changes in the Baltic food retail sector. At the beginning of reformation privatisation and establishment of numerous new forms has led to fragmentation in the food retail trade. Easy divisibility of trade enterprises included into privatisations as well as the lack of capital for new entrepreneurs are the major reason for the creation of mostly small (family) enterprises. However, from 1996 an increased tendency to concentration can be observed. Competition on the Baltic food market has intensified due to the modernisation of innovative domestic enterprises and appearance of western trading organisations. The dynamics of the competition becomes obvious by numerous market entrances (western trade concerns) and exits (of unprofitable domestic enterprises) as well as by an increased concentration of larger enterprises. This development allows to expect an efficiency increase in the Baltic food trade.Lebensmittelhandel,Baltische Länder,Strukturwandel,Transformation,Food retailing and wholesaling,Baltic States,Structural Changes,Transition

Analysing sectoral competitiveness: A framework of strategic management

In recent years, some major industries in transition economies, such as food and beverage, once epitomised industrial supremacy have lost significant market shares to it.s foreign competitors, both at home and abroad. Recognising the fact once pre-eminent world-wide economic position of former socialist economies has generally eroded significantly in recent years. Our study examines the competitive implications of the major determinants of competitiveness within a framework favoured by the Strategic Management theory in selected transition economies. Our research focuses on the three Baltic States and two of their major competitors within the Europe -Germany and EU in general. The main objective of our study is, therefore, to develop an analytical framework for analysing industrial competitiveness and to apply it to the food sector and it's related industries in these economies.Seit einigen Jahren haben große Industriebereiche wie Lebensmittel- und Getränkeindustrie, einst überlegene Industriezweige, große Marktanteile an fremde Konkurrenzunternehmen abgeben müssen, sowohl im eigenen Land als auch im Ausland. In unserer Arbeit untersuchen wir die Auswirkungen der Hauptfaktoren des Wettbewerbs im Rahmen der Theorie des Strategic Management in ausgewählten im Wandel begriffenen Volkswirtschaften. Unser Hauptaugenmerk liegt auf drei baltischen Staaten und deren Hauptkonkurrenten . Deutschland und die EU im ganzen. Unser Hauptziel stellt dabei die Entwicklung eines Rahmens dar, mit dessen Hilfe industrieller Wettbewerb analysiert werden kann. Dieser Rahmen wird auf die Lebensmittelindustrie und verwandte Zweige in den entsprechenden Staaten angewendet

Education in the East, Emigrating to the West?

This paper examines the potential impacts of East-West migration of talents on the innovative capital and hence the long-run growth prospects in Eastern sending countries. Complementing previous studies, we examine the impact of high skill migration not only on the formation of human capital, but also consider migration's impact on knowledge capital in the sending countries. In line with previous studies we find that in the short- to medium-term high skill migration strictly reduces national innovative capital and hence increases the gap between East and West. However, these effects might be mitigated by factors such as reinforced education of workers, productive investment of remittances, return migration and increased knowledge transfer. Given that the emigration of highly skilled affects human capital differently than knowledge capital, addressing the adverse impacts of the most talented and highly skilled worker emigration efficiently, differentiated policies are required for human capital and knowledge capital