Explaining the recent divergence in payroll and household employment growth

Each month, the government releases two estimates of U.S. employment growth - one based on a survey of firms, the other on a survey of households. Since 1994, these measures have diverged sharply. Evidence suggests that the household survey's estimate has risen more slowly because it undercounts working-age adults who have found employment during the current economic expansion.Employment (Economic theory)

Further Cross-Country Evidence on the Accuracy of the Private Sector's Output Forecasts

This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of real GDP growth for a large number of industrialized and developing countries for the time period October 1989 to December 1999. The questions addressed are the following: How accurate are private sector forecasts? How does their accuracy compare with that of the IMF's World Economic Outlook? How well do forecasters predict rare events such as recessions or crises? Is discord among forecasters associated with lower forecast accuracy? Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund

Wage Inequality in Post-Reform Mexico

Using the Mexican Household Income and Expenditure Survey (ENIGH) covering 1984-2000 we analyze wages and employment in Mexico after trade liberalization and domestic reforms. We find that wage inequality and returns to postsecondary schooling increased rapidly during 1984-1994 but stabilized since that period. The end of inequality growth was due to a severe macroeconomic crisis which adversely impacted the better educated, an increase in education levels at the end of the 1990s, and a slowdown in skill demand in the latter half of the 1990s. Between-industry shifts, consistent with trade-based explanations, account for a part of the increase in skill demand during 1984-1994, but these types of movements actually reduced the demand for skill in the latter part of the 1990s. The equalizing impact of trade was offset by within-industry demand shifts which continued to favor more educated workers. The Mexican experience in the 1990s suggests that market-oriented reforms have a sharp initial impact on inequality which dissipates over time. However, the opening of the economy to trade, foreign capital, and global markets also leads to a more long-run increase in the demand for skill.

Employment of women and demand-side forces

Using the 1964–95 March Current Population Surveys and the 1940–90 Census, this paper examines the relationship between female employment growth and changes in labor demand. Specifically, the authors examine whether industrial change and changes in labor demand can account for both the acceleration and deceleration of female employment growth across the decades as well as the pattern of biased growth in favor of more skilled women. They find that labor demand proxies are successful in accounting for the pattern of biased growth but are less successful in accounting for the overall acceleration of female employment, particularly in the 1970s.Labor supply ; Women - Employment

Inequality in labor market outcomes: contrasting the 1980s and earlier decades

The increase in wage inequality during the 1980s was exceptional, but underlying demand and supply conditions showed relatively little contrast compared to previous decades. One possible explanation is that the increased demand for skills during the 1980s was unusually concentrated among the most skilled workers rather than being spread throughout the skill distribution.Education ; Labor market ; Wages

Technical Change and the Wage Structure During the Second Industrial Revolution: Evidence from the Merchant Marine, 1865-1912

Using a large, individual-level wage data set, we examine the impact of a major technological innovation the steam engine on skill demand and the wage structure in the merchant shipping industry. We find that the technical change created a new demand for skilled workers, the engineers, while destroying demand for workers with skills relevant only to sail. It had a deskilling effect on production work able-bodied seamen (essentially, artisans) were replaced by unskilled engine room operatives. On the other hand, mates and able-bodied seamen employed on steam earned a premium relative to their counterparts on sail. A wholesale switch from sail to steam would increase the 90/10 wage ratio by 40%, with most of the rise in inequality coming from the creation of the engineer occupation.

Technical Change and the Wage Structure During the Second Industrial Revolution: Evidence from the Merchant Marine, 1865-1912

Using a large, individual-level wage data set, we examine the impact of a major technological innovation—the steam engine—on skill demand and the wage structure in the merchant shipping industry. We find that the technical change created a new demand for skilled workers, the engineers, while destroying demand for workers with skills relevant only to sail. It had a deskilling effect on production work—able-bodied seamen (essentially, artisans) were replaced by unskilled engine room operatives. On the other hand, mates and able-bodied seamen employed on steam earned a premium relative to their counterparts on sail. A wholesale switch from sail to steam would increase the 90/10 wage ratio by 40%, with most of the rise in inequality coming from the creation of the engineer occupation.

Current Unemployment, Historically Contemplated

macroeconomics, Current Unemployment