Digging in the megaproject's graveyard: Why do megaprojects die, and how to check their health?

The pressure to complete Infrastructure Megaprojects (IMs) is enormous; once started, IMs are commonly considered too costly to be stopped. Still, despite this widespread belief, several IMs are terminated during delivery/construction. Notwithstanding its empirical and theoretical relevance, few studies investigate IMs termination during delivery/construction. This paper aims to develop further the “reverse escalation of commitment” theory which sense-makes the termination of IMs. We take a critical confrontation of the existing literature addressing two questions: (1) Why are IMs terminated during delivery/construction? and (2) How does the project termination process occur in IMs? By analysing 30 unfinished IMs, we identified the six determinants for IMs termination, contributing to the development of reverse-escalation of commitment theory by providing a processual perspective of the four most common patterns leading to IMs termination. Finally, we provide a checklist for identifying key elements leading to IMs termination

What does it take to kill a megaproject? The reverse escalation of commitment

Polarized political debates can lead to infrastructure megaprojects in advanced stages of construction being left unfinished. Although this scenario is uncommon, there are relevant examples that negatively impact the economy and society. Despite their relevance, unfinished megaprojects are scarcely discussed in project studies. However, political events such as a referendum or government transitions jeopardize the continuation of the megaproject, leading to its termination. This paper focuses on unfinished infrastructure megaprojects and employs the escalation of commitment as a theoretical perspective. It addresses the following research question: How political polarization fosters escalation of commitment leading to unfinished infrastructure megaprojects? The paper employs a longitudinal case study, the USD 13 billion Mexico City New International Airport, recently terminated during the construction phase due to a political decision. The paper describes the interplay between the development of infrastructure megaprojects and political polarization. It shows how political narratives can portray a misleading escalation of commitment to justify project termination, even when it is not rational