A Simple Global Perspective on the US Slowdown, Boom-Bust Cycles and the Rise of Protectionism

The global economy has experienced several significant developments during the recent years: the rising role of giant Asian economies in international trade; the 2008 financial crisis and the ensuing Great Recession in the US, with its propagation to the rest of the world; the sharp rise and subsequent burst of commodity prices over 2006-2009. In this paper we use a multi-region DSGE model for the global economy as a simple framework to understand the global response to these shocks and the importance of the propagation to different regions. The model is equipped to jointly determine exchange rates, trade balances and commodity prices across the world. We carry out several simulations with the model. First, we consider the US slowdown and its international propagation. Second, we explore a global boom-bust cycle driven by overoptimistic forecasts for productivity and their relationship with current account rebalancing. Finally, we analyze the global economic consequences of protectionism. We find that the effects in commodity prices, global output and demand tend to be amplified if the real exchange rates and real wages are more sluggish to adjust in some regions.

Endogenous Financial Constraints: Persistence and Interest Rate Fluctuations

This article analyzes firm dynamics when the entrepreneurs have limited capacity to comply with their financial contracts. We characterize the optimal constrained contract under this imperfection in the presence of productivity and interest rate fluctuations. We show that under the optimal contract, productivity and interest rate fluctuations have amplified effects on the firms’ dynamics, beyond what would be predicted in the case of perfect enforceability. Moreover, the persistence of these fluctuations is higher when the compliance problems are more severe. These findings can be related to the fact that countries with better contract enforceability display deeper financial development and better economic performance.

Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy

This paper analyzes the effects of oil-price shocks from a general equilibrium standpoint. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, estimated by Bayesian methods for the Chilean economy. The model explicitly includes oil in the consumption basket and also in the technology used by domestic firms. With the estimated model we simulate how monetary policy and other variables would respond to an oil-price shock under the policy rule that best describes the behavior of the Central Bank of Chile (CBC). We also simulate the counterfactual responses in a flexible prices and wages equilibrium, and under alternative monetary frameworks. We show that a 13% increase in the real price of oil leads to a fall in output of about 0.5% and an increase in inflation of about 0.4%. The contractionary effect of the oil shock is mainly due to the endogenous tightening of the monetary policy.

Optimal Monetary Policy Rules Under Inflation Range Targeting

We calculate and compare optimal monetary policy (MP) rules for a simple economy under alternative central bank objective (loss) functions. We compare both soft- and hard-edges range (zone) targeting as well as asymmetric loss-functions to a quadratic loss case. The latter represents the standard loss-function for point inflation targeting. The results show that MP aggressiveness under range targeting critically depends on how hard are the edges of this range. If a range is thought of as a thick point objective, MP is always active (there are no inaction zones), although it is less aggressive against inflation and output shocks if range edges are sufficiently soft (vis-à-vis a point target). Harder edges makes MP more aggressive even when the economy is close to the central part of the range. Finally, an asymmetric loss-function for inflation that penalizes positive deviations relatively more generates a bias against output.

The Chilean Business Cycles Through the Lens of a Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

This paper uses an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nominal and real rigidities, to describe the sources of business cycle fluctuations in Chile. Our results show that foreign shocks and domestic supply shock account for a large share of output fluctuations over the last 20 years. Relatively tight domestic monetary conditions have contributed to contain inflationary pressures arising from other shocks, namely a slowdown in productivity by mid 90s. Foreign factors are also behind the large swings exhibited by the real exchange rate, although a monetary contraction in 1998 explains part of the delayed adjustment of the exchange rate in response to effects of the Asian crisis. The tight monetary policy around 1998 also contributes to the slow recovery of the employment afterwards.

Optimal Monetary Policy Rules when the Current Account Matters

This paper explores the implications for optimal monetary policy rules of including a target for the current account (CA) among central bank (CB) objectives. Using a simple but realistic macroeconomic model of the Chilean economy and standard dynamic programming with forward looking variables, the paper finds optimal rules under alternative specifications of a CB quadratic loss-function. The results show that optimal policy reactions change substantially when there is an objective for the CA (besides inflation). Furthermore, once the CA enters the CB objective function, the relative importance of output vis-à-vis inflation variability is less crucial in determining optimal policy rules. Using a simple 2-equation model, the paper then investigates the implications for monetary policy of having an asymmetric objective with respect to the CA. Specifically, it considers the case in which negative deviations from target are considered to be relatively more costly. The results indicate that, in this non-quadratic set-up, monetary policy is clearly more aggressive against positive inflation shocks than in the symmetric case.

Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy Under Segmented Asset Markets and Sticky Prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a two-sector small open economy model under segmented asset markets and sticky prices. We solve the Ramsey problem under full commitment, and characterize the optimal monetary policy in a version of the model calibrated to the Chilean economy. The contributions of the paper are twofold. First, under the optimal policy the volatility of nontradable inflation is near zero. Second, stabilizing non-tradable inflation is optimal regardless of the financial structure of the small open economy. Even for a moderate degree of price stickiness, implementing a monetary policy that mitigates asset market segmentation is highly distortionary. This last result suggests that policymakers should resort to other instruments in order to correct financial imperfections.

Labor Market Dyncamics in Chile: the Role of Terms of Trade Shocks

In this paper we explore the channels through which the terms of trade affect labor market variables in an emerging economy such as Chile. In doing so, we analyze the cyclical properties of labor market variables and use a structural vector autoregressive model to analyze the empirical responses of variables such as unemployment rate, job finding rate, sectoral employment and sectoral average labor productivity to terms of trade shocks in the case of Chile, which come from two main sources: the mining and the non-mining sector. We then develop a multi-sector model with search frictions that generates fluctuations in the unemployment rate. Using a calibrated version of this model for Chile, we analyze the ability of the model to replicate the observed responses of labor market variables to terms of trade shocks. We find that the model can predict quantitatively the effects of labor market variables to non-mining terms of trade shocks. Although the model is able to obtain responses to mining price changes qualitatively similar to what is estimated in the data, it falls short to the estimated magnitude of reduction in unemployment that follows a rise in mining prices. The presence of very high wage rigidity can help to generate a sharper fall in unemployment after a mining terms of trade rise. Finally, the model remarks a more intense sectoral labor reallocation in response to terms of trade shocks than the amount estimated in the data.

What Drives the Current Account in Commodity Exporting Countries? The Cases of Chile and New Zealand

This paper uses an open economy DSGE model with a commodity sector and nominal and real rigidities to ask what factors account for current account developments in two small commodity exporting countries. We estimate the model, using Bayesian techniques, on Chilean and on New Zealand data, and investigate the structural factors that explain the behaviour of the two countries’ current accounts. We find that foreign financial conditions, investment-specific shocks, and foreign demand shocks account for the bulk of the variation of the current accounts of the two countries. In the case of New Zealand, fluctuations in commodity export prices have also been important. Counterfactual experiments indicate that (i) a peso denomination of the Chilean external debt would reduce the impact of external shocks on the exchange rate and domestic variables, and the influence of monetary policy on the current account; and (ii) more or less aggressive monetary policy in New Zealand offers little scope for stabilizing the exchange rate and the current account.

What Drives the Current Account in Commodity Exporting Countries? The Cases of Chile and New Zealand

This paper uses an open economy DSGE model with a commodity sector and nominal and real rigidities to ask what factors account for current account developments in two small commodity exporting countries. We estimate the model, using Bayesian techniques, on Chilean and on New Zealand data, and investigate the structural factors that explain the behaviour of the two countries’ current accounts. We find that foreign financial conditions, investment-specific shocks, and foreign demand shocks account for the bulk of the variation of the current accounts of the two countries. In the case of New Zealand, fluctuations in commodity export prices have also been important. Counterfactual experiments indicate that (i) a peso denomination of the Chilean external debt would reduce the impact of external shocks on the exchange rate and domestic variables, and the influence of monetary policy on the current account; and (ii) more or less aggressive monetary policy in New Zealand offers little scope for stabilizing the exchange rate and the current account.