Latin American clubs: uncovering patterns of convergence

This paper explores the dynamics of convergence in Latin American countries and asks whether there are tendencies for converging to different clubs. The analysis shows clear differences between two groups: a large group of low-to-middle income countries and a small group of rich ountries. The club of low-to-middle income countries showed a tendency of spreading out until the mid 1990s and slight convergence afterwards. At the same time, the distance between the rich countries and the low-to-middle income countries faded away over time,particularly during the 1980s. However, during most of the 1990s, when convergence was occurring in the group of low-to-middle income countries, the rich countries started to pull away clearly distancing themselves again as a different club. The study of club behavior is important because the presence of clubs might suggest that there are common factors among groups of countries leading them to develop (and converge) in similar fashion. Identifying such common factors (if they exist) might improve our understanding of why some countries in the region grow faster than others. This is not possible to analyze with traditional growth regressions that employ a single catching up parameter or with a dispersion statistics like the sigma-convergence. Since these methods cannot detect club behavior much less they can analyze the reasons behind their formation.Convergence clubs, polarization, stratification

Trade, Resource Reallocation and Industry Heterogeneity

Recent trade models with heterogeneous firms (Bernard et al., 2003 and Melitz, 2003) show how lower trade costs can spur aggregate productivity by forcing lower productivity firms out of the market, cutting off the lower tail of the productivity distribution. In this paper we find significant heterogeneity regarding this impact across different industries. In particular, we find that the exit of inefficient plants due to stronger import competition is very prominent in light industries, that is, in industries in which only a limited amount of capital is needed and where most plants are of small-scale. In contrast, we find no significant effects of import competition on the exit of plants in heavy industries. The result has important policy implications regarding the role of trade reform in boosting aggregate productivity, particularly in industries with high levels of distortions.Trade costs, productivity, resource reallocation

Microeconomic flexibility, creative destruction and trade

We investigate whether greater microeconomic flexibility facilitates the process of creative destruction in the context of new trade models with heterogeneous firms (Bernard et al., 2003 and Melitz, 2003). In these models, freer trade increases aggregate productivity because high-efficiency plants expand through exporting and low-efficiency plants exit the market. However, factor reallocation could be negatively affected by the presence of microeconomic frictions. We use these insights of the theory to analyze whether a reduction in trade costs increases the probability of becoming an exporter relatively more in industries with greater microeconomic flexibility and whether plant exit driven by trade costs declines is more likely in industries with lower frictions. Using plant level data from Venezuela, we report results supporting these predictions.Trade costs, microeconomic frictions, resource reallocation

Trade costs, resource reallocation and productivity in developing countries

An increasing body of evidence indicates that an important share of aggregate productivity growth, in both developed and developing countries, arises from the reallocation of resources across plants of different productivity levels. New trade models with heterogeneous firms (Bernard et al., 2003; Melitz, 2003) suggest that international trade plays an important role in this reallocative process. Focusing on a developing country, Chile, we use explicit measures of trade costs to explore the existence of the channels suggested by these new trade models. We provide new key findings for developing countries: first, trade costs affect the reallocative process by protecting inefficient producers, lowering their likelihood to exit, and also by limiting the expansion of efficient plants, lowering their likelihood to export. Second, the reallocative impacts of trade arise not only from tariff barriers but also from transport costs.Trade costs, productivity, resource reallocation

Paving the road to export: the trade impacts of domestic transport costs and road quality

The literature examining the effects of domestic transport costs on trade flows is scarce. The few studies available rely mostly on distance-based measures as proxies of transport costs which impede analyzing the trade impacts of transport-infrastructure improvements, a critical aspect in regional and public policy. Applying a novel methodology that combines real freight costs and Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis to the case of Colombia, this paper measures the extent to which domestic transport costs -from the place of production to the port of shipment- act as a friction to international trade. Domestic transport costs are found to significantly affect the prospects of exporting. For instance, regions within the country with transport costs in the 25th percentile export around 2.3 times more than regions with transport costs in the 75th percentile, once other factors are controlled for. Export increases from road improvements are found to be larger in regions with initially higher transport costs. This is because regions with initially higher transport costs are normally associated with longer routes and those tend to have larger shares of roads in poor conditionsTransport costs, road quality, regional exports

Why does Latin America Grow More Slowly?

In order to analyze how satisfactory the growth process in Latin America has been over the past 40 years it is important to make relevant comparisons with other experiences. To tackle this issue, the authors focus on the per capita economic growth rate and its contributing factors, comparing the experience of the typical country in Latin America (LAC) with that of benchmark countries, namely a typical country of the rest of the world (ROW) and of its subsets of developed countries (DEV) and East Asian countries (EASIA). They provide some econometric evidence suggesting that the worse institutional quality of Latin America relative to rest of the world, and to a lesser extent, the lower degree of openness and the higher degree of macroeconomic instability, were important factors behind these differences in productivity growth. The rest of the paper includes a description of economic performance of Latin America during the last four decades and a comparison it with the experience of the benchmark countries, accounting exercises in order to examine the contributions of various factors to the differences in performance observed, an econometric model to explore the role of policy and institutional variables as drivers of these contributions, and a conclusion.Economic Development & Growth, Region 1, Latin America

Output Collapses and Productivity Destruction

This paper analyzes the long-run relationship between output collapses—defined defined as GDP falling substantially below trend—and total factor productivity (TFP), using a panel of 71 developed and developing countries during the period 1960-2003 to identify episodes of output collapse and estimate counterfactual post-collapse TFP trends. Collapses are concentrated in developing countries, especially African and Latin American, and were particularly widespread in the 1980s in Latin America. Overall, output collapses are systematically associated with long-lasting declines in TFP. The paper explores the conditions under which collapses are least or most damaging, as well as the type of shocks that make collapses more likely or severe, and additionally quantifies the welfare cost associated with output collapses.Growth, recessions, productivity, recovery

Integration, resource reallocation and productivity: the cases of Brazil and Chile

Most microeconometric studies available for LAC have focused on measuring the direct impact of trade on plant productivity leaving aside other effects that arise through the market selection process. Additionally, most studies have focused on tariff barriers as the only obstacle to international trade and integration. In this paper we use data from Brazil and Chile to analyze how trade affects aggregate productivity through the process of resource reallocation and to explore not only the role of tariffs but also the role of transport costs. We find that trade costs affect the reallocative process by protecting inefficient producers, lowering their likelihood to exit, and also by limiting the expansion of efficient plants, lowering their likelihood to export. We also find that the reallocative impacts of trade come not only from tariff barriers but also from transport costs.Tariff barriers, transport costs, productivity, resource reallocation

Venezuela’s Growth Experience

The standard of living, measured as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, increased dramatically in Venezuela relative to that of the United States from 20 percent in 1920 to 90 percent in 1958, but since then has collapsed to around 30 percent nowadays. What explains these remarkable growth and collapse episodes? Using a standard development accounting framework, we show that the growth episode is mainly accounted for by an increase in capital accumulation and knowledge transfer associated with the foreign direct investment in the booming oil industry. The collapse episode is accounted for equally by a fall in total factor productivity and in capital accumulation. We analyze Venezuela during the collapse episode in the context of a model of heterogeneous production units were policies and institutions favour unproductive in detriment of more productive activities. These policies generate misallocation, lower TFP, and a decline in capital accumulation. We show in the context of an heterogeneous-establishment growth model that distortionary policies can explain a large portion of the current differences in TFP, capital accumulation, and income per capita between Venezuela and the United States.Productivity, physical capital, misallocation, policies

Venezuela's Growth Experience

The standard of living, measured as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, increased dramatically in Venezuela relative to that of the United States from 20 percent in 1920 to 90 percent in 1958, but since then has collapsed to around 30 percent nowadays. What explains these remarkable growth and collapse episodes? Using a standard development accounting framework, we show that the growth episode is mainly accounted for by an increase in capital accumulation and knowledge transfer associated with the foreign direct investment in the booming oil industry. The collapse episode is accounted for equally by a fall in total factor productivity and in capital accumulation. We analyze Venezuela during the collapse episode in the context of a model of heterogeneous production units were policies and institutions favour unproductive in detriment of more productive activities. These policies generate misallocation, lower TFP, and a decline in capital accumulation. We show in the context of an heterogeneous-establishment growth model that distortionary policies can explain between 80 to 95 percent of the current differences in TFP, capital accumulation, and income per capita between Venezuela and the United States.Productivity, physical capital, misallocation, policies