Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in German Exports – Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations

A non-linear model is applied where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction. We call the latter a 'play' area - analogous to mechanical play and implement an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on German exports is then estimated based on quarterly data from 1995Q1 to 2010Q3. For some of the main export partners of Germany outside the euro area and some of the most important tradable sectors we fi nd significant hysteretic effects for a part of the German exports.Ein nicht-lineares Modell wird angewendet, in dem plötzliche starke Reaktionen der Exporte auftreten, sobald eine Inaktivitätszone des realen Wechselkures überschritten wird. Analog zum mechanischen Spiel wird dieses Phänomen eines pfadabhängigen Inaktivitätsbandes 'play' genannt. Mittels eines Algorithmus wird die Play-Hysterese in einen ökonometrischen Schätzansatz implementiert. Für Quartalsdaten deutscher Exporte in wichtige Nicht-Euro-Empfängerländer im Zeitraum von 1995Q1 bis 2010Q3 finden wir für verschiedene deutsche Exportsektoren signifikante hysteretische Play-Effekte

Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play -- Hysteresis in Greek Exports to the Euro Area, the US and Turkey -- Sectoral Evidence

In this paper a non-linear model is applied, where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction, which we call 'play' area - analogous to mechanical play. We implement an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on Greek exports is estimated based on the period from 1995Q1 to 2014Q4. Looking at some of the main export partners of Greece, the euro area, Turkey and the US, and some of its most important tradeable sectors we identify significant hysteretic effects for a part of the Greek exports. We find that Greek export activity is characterized by 'bands of inaction' with respect to changes in the real exchange rate and calculate the further real depreciation needed to trigger a spurt in Greek exports. To check for robustness we (a) estimate Greek export equations for a limited sample excluding the recent financial crisis, (b) use export weight instead of deflated nominal exports as the dependent variable, (c) employ a political uncertainty variable as a determinant of the width of the area of weak reaction. Overall, we find that those specifications which take uncertainty into account display the best goodness of fit. In other words: the option value of waiting dominates the real exchange rate effect on Greek exports.Analog zu mechanischem Spiel wendet dieses Paper ein nichtlineares Modell an, in dem plötzlich starke Reaktionen der Exporte auftreten, wenn die Wechselkursveränderung eine inaktive Zone überschreitet, welche als 'play area' bezeichnet wird. Wir implementieren einen Algorithmus, der pfadabhängige Hysterese beschreibt, in einem Regressionsmodell. Der hysteretische Einfluss des realen Wechselkurses auf griechische Exporte wird für die Periode von 1995Q1 bis 2014Q4 geschätzt. Wir finden signifikante hysteretische Effekte für einen Teil der griechischen Exporte bei der Betrachtung einiger Hauptexportpartner Griechenlands, wie die Eurozone, die Türkei und die USA unter der Berücksichtigung der wichtigsten Handelssektoren. Es zeigt sich, dass griechische Exporte durch ein 'Band of Inaction' in Bezug auf Veränderungen des realen Wechselkurses charakterisiert sind, und wir berechnen die weitere Abwertung, die benötigt wird, um eine starke Exportreaktion für Griechenland auszulösen. Um auf Robustheit zu prüfen; (a) schätzen wir die Exportgleichungen für einen begrenzten Zeitraum und berücksichtigen nicht die jüngste Finanzkrise, (b) verwenden wir Mengenangaben für die Exportreihen statt nominaler Werte, (c) wird politische Unsicherheit als Determinante für die Breite der schwachen Exportreaktionen implementiert. Allgemein stellt sich heraus, dass jene Spezifikationen, die Unsicherheit berücksichtigen, die beste Güte zeigen. Anders formuliert dominiert der Optionswert abzuwarten den realen Wechselkurseffekt griechischer Exporte

Fish assemblage composition in a tributary of the Mogi Gua\ue7u river basin, southeastern Brazil

Fish assemblage composition and seasonal patterns of species abundance were studied in Cabaceiras stream, a tributary of the Mogi Guaçu river in São Paulo State, Brazil. Three stations were sampled monthly from June 1999 to May 2000 using sieves and small trawl net and gill nets. Fifteen fish families, 37 genera and 45 species were captured. Characiformes (27 spp.) and Siluriformes (13 spp.) were the most species-rich orders. Gymnotiformes and Perciformes were represented by two species each, and Synbranchiformes had only a single species. One group of species (approximately 75 %) persisted in the stream throughout the year. A second group (approximately 25 %) contained species that only occupy the stream for a limited period of their life cycle, and overall fish assemblage composition was associated with the seasonal flood cycle

Estimativa de um modelo não linear para as exportações brasileiras de borracha no período 1992-2006

O objetivo deste artigo é aplicar o mecanismo de correção de erros linear e não linear para encontrar as elasticidades de resposta das exportações do setor de borracha a diversas variáveis. Duas importantes contribuições emergem desta pesquisa. A primeira é o uso da metodologia de mudança de regime markoviano. A segunda está relacionada aos resultados para o setor. Para a curva de oferta, não é possível afirmar a existência do efeito J. Há evidência de assimetria de desempenho entre regimes de queda e crescimento da demanda por exportações, bem como entre a duração desses estados. Isso pode estar refletindo a influência das elasticidades de curto prazo, em especial no caso da renda e dos preços. De forma geral, os resultados apontam que choques negativos têm muito mais poder de desestabilizar o comportamento das exportações do setor no Brasil que choques positivos.<br>The goal of this paper is to apply the linear and nonlinear error correction model to supply and demand for rubber exports and find elasticities to several variables. Two major contributions emerge from this research. The first is the use of the methodology of Markovian Switching model. The second is related to the results for the sector. For the supply curve is not possible to affirm the existence of the J effect. There is evidence of asymmetry in performance between states of retraction and growth in demand for exports, as well as between the duration of these states. This may reflect the influence of short-term elasticities, particularly in the case of income and prices. Overall, the results show that negative shocks have much more power to destabilize the exports sector in Brazil than positive shocks