The Impact of Climate Policy on U.S. Aviation

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).We evaluate the impact of an economy-wide cap-and-trade policy on U.S. aviation taking the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R.2454) as a representative example. We use an economywide model to estimate the impact of H.R. 2454 on fuel prices and economic activity, and a partial equilibrium model of the aviation industry to estimate changes in aviation carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and operations. Between 2012 and 2050, with reference demand growth benchmarked to ICAO/GIACC (2009) forecasts, we find that aviation emissions increase by 130%. In our climate policy scenarios, emissions increase by between 97% and 122%. A key finding is that, under the core set of assumptions in our analysis, H.R. 2454 reduces average fleet efficiency, as increased air fares reduce demand and slow the introduction of new aircraft. Assumptions relating to the sensitivity of aviation demand to price changes, and the degree to which higher fuel prices stimulate advances in the fuel efficiency of new aircraft play an important role in this result.U.S. Federal Aviation Administration Office of Environment and Energy under FAA Award Number: 06HCHNEHMIT, Amendment Nos. 018 and 028. ErichHBecker Foundation. The Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy and a consortium of government and industrial sponsors

The relationship between observing behavior and food-key response rates under mixed and multiple schedules of reinforcement

Pigeons were trained under an observing response procedure in which pecks on one key (food key) were reinforced under a mixed fixed-interval 30-sec extinction schedule. A response on a second (observing) key replaced the mixed-schedule stimulus with either of two multiple-schedule stimuli (red and green keylights) for 5 sec. Observing response rates were positively correlated with food-key response rates in the presence of multiple-schedule stimuli and inversely related to food-key response rates in the presence of mixed-schedule stimuli. These results suggest that observing response output is controlled not only by the stimuli produced by observing responses but also by the stimuli in the presence of which observing responses occur. The possibility that observing responses alter the probability of reinforcement is advanced