Assessing resilience against floods with a system dynamics approach: a comparative study of two models

Purpose This paper aims to present the concepts of two different ways of generating a dynamic structure of the urban system to further allow in understanding specific urban behavior facing against flood and further evaluate the potential effect of specific resilience strategies aiming to decrease the exposure and vulnerability of the system. Design/methodology/approach Two system dynamics model structures are presented in form of Casual Loop Diagrams. Findings The main differences among the tow approaches are the time horizon and the approach that regulates the assessment of the resilience through a dynamic composite indicator: the first model refers to baseline at initial simulation time; the second model is focused on the ratio service supply to demand. Research limitations/implications Within the approach, the purpose is to properly and efficiently evaluate the effect of different Flood Risk Management strategies, i.e. prevention, defence, mitigation, preparation and recovery for consistent and resilient flood governance plans with different type of resilience scenarios. Originality/value The need for such tool is underlined by a lack on the assessment of urban resilience to flood as whole, considering the physical and social dimensions and the complex interaction among their main components. There are several assessment tools based on an indicator approach that have been proposed to meet this need. Nevertheless, indicator-based approach has the limitation to exclude the complexity of the system and its systemic interaction in terms of feedbacks’ effects among the identified components or variables selected for the system description. This peculiarity can be provided by System Dynamics modeling

A supply chain framework for characterizing indirect vulnerability

Purpose Climate vulnerability assessments are often operationalized by the analysis of indicators defined by the spatial boundaries of the community under study. These, however, sometimes fail to capture interdependency among communities for basic resources. This paper aims to propose a framework for characterizing vulnerability caused by interdependency by adapting a supply chain lens. Design/methodology/approach The paper proposes a definition for “indirect vulnerability” that recognizes the transboundary and teleconnected nature of vulnerability arising from resource networks among cities and communities. A conceptual framework using a supply chain approach is presented for climate hazards in particular. This approach is then demonstrated through a rapid appraisal of the rice, energy and water supply chains and the waste management chains of Metro Manila. Findings The application of the supply chain lens to assessing the indirect vulnerability of Metro Manila brings to fore issues extending beyond the decision-making boundaries of local government units. Addressing these will require vertical government coordination and horizontal inter-sectoral collaboration. Thus, this supply chain-based indirect vulnerability assessment can be complementary to traditional vulnerability assessments in providing a larger systems perspective. Originality/value Innovative tools are needed to make community vulnerability assessments both holistic and tractable. Existing methods in the private sector can be adapted rather than reinventing the wheel. This supply chain framework can be a useful decision support and planning tool across governance levels to comprehensively address vulnerability

A supply chain framework for characterizing indirect vulnerability

Purpose: Climate vulnerability assessments are often operationalized by the analysis of indicators defined by the spatial boundaries of the community under study. These, however, sometimes fail to capture interdependency among communities for basic resources. This paper aims to propose a framework for characterizing vulnerability caused by interdependency by adapting a supply chain lens. Design/methodology/approach: The paper proposes a definition for "indirect vulnerability" that recognizes the transboundary and teleconnected nature of vulnerability arising from resource networks among cities and communities. A conceptual framework using a supply chain approach is presented for climate hazards in particular. This approach is then demonstrated through a rapid appraisal of the rice, energy and water supply chains and the waste management chains of Metro Manila. Findings: The application of the supply chain lens to assessing the indirect vulnerability of Metro Manila brings to fore issues extending beyond the decision-making boundaries of local government units. Addressing these will require vertical government coordination and horizontal inter-sectoral collaboration. Thus, this supply chain-based indirect vulnerability assessment can be complementary to traditional vulnerability assessments in providing a larger systems perspective. Originality/value: Innovative tools are needed to make community vulnerability assessments both holistic and tractable. Existing methods in the private sector can be adapted rather than reinventing the wheel. This supply chain framework can be a useful decision support and planning tool across governance levels to comprehensively address vulnerability.This paper was supported by a grant from the Ateneo de Manila University (ADMU) University Research Council (URC) for the project #URC-14-0

Climate-Induced Stressors to Peace: A Review Of Recent Literature

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a threat to global peace and security. This paper intends to provide a better understanding of the nature of interactions between climate change and events that undermine peace through a systematic review of recent literature. It highlights major methodological approaches adopted in the literature, elaborates on the geographic focus of the research at the nexus of climate change and peace, and provides further information on how various climatic stressors, such as extreme temperature, floods, sea-level rise, storms, and water stress may be linked to different events that undermine peace (e.g. civil conflict, crime, intercommunal violence, interstate conflict, political conflict, and social conflict) through direct and indirect pathways. Results confirm previous findings that statistical techniques and qualitative case studies are dominant methods in climate-conflict research but show that there has been an increase in the geographic information system based risk analyses and qualitative comparative analyses in the recent years. In line with previous reviews, results show that the literature is mainly focused on certain regions of the world and several major regions that have experienced numerous conflicts over the past few years and/or are vulnerable to adverse climatic events are understudied. However, a new finding is that, in the past few years, there has been an increasing focus on Asia, which contrasts with previous reviews that show an African focus in the literature. Also, there is an unbalanced attention to different climatic stressors and peace-related events. Interactions between water stress/extreme temperature and civil and interstate conflicts have received more attention. A major finding is that, only under certain conditions climatic stressors may act as driving forces or aggravating factors. In fact, there is a strong consensus that climate change is less likely to undermine peace in isolation from a wide range of contextual socio-economic and institutional factors such as political instability, poor governance, poverty, homogeneous livelihood structures, and ethnic fractionalization. However, such contextual factors can contribute to undermining peace via either direct or indirect pathways. The former may occur through direct psychological/physiological effects of climatic impacts or via competition over scarce resources. In contrast, in indirect pathways climate change may lead to conflict through diminishing livelihood capacities and/or inducing migration. In addition to synthesizing literature on contextual factors and direct/indirect pathways, the review identifies gaps that need further research

Physical Services Index for Flooding Hazards

Most hazard assessments focus on the magnitude and probability of occurrence of the trigger events. Although useful, they overlook the influence of the natural and built environments in either modifying the magnitude of the trigger event or setting off a cascade of ancillary hazards. This chapter presents a Physical Services Index (PSI) to account for the twofold role of physical urban services in compounding flooding hazards and as an indicator of preexisting development gaps, which can constitute hazards themselves. Using Metro Manila, the Philippines, as a pilot case, a system-dynamics platform simulates trends in the PSI. The results show that, for Metro Manila, the effects of population growth on the PSI can be mitigated by reducing land conversion into built-up areas. They likewise reveal that limiting flood volume as a flood-management measure no longer suffices. Governance institutions will need to address large deficits in urban services to prevent the cascading of flooding hazards and to improve health outcomes and wellbeing. More broadly, these results demonstrate that development-oriented investments, such as improving urban services, are potentially more effective at enhancing resilience to flooding, even though they are not explicitly hazard related. Highlights Cascading hazards are a prevalent but understudied class of multihazards. A Physical Services Index (PSI) tracks urban services and their impacts on flood hazards. For Metro Manila, less urbanization can offset PSI impacts of population growth. Addressing flood hazards requires investments beyond flood-control infrastructures. Resilience investments can be more cost-effective with development co-benefits