Tabular corals that provide habitat structure, shelter and food for associated reef organisms.

<p>(A) Wave-exposed coral communities are often dominated by tabular corals (photo: Andrew Baird). (B) The obligate corallivore, <i>Chaetodon trifascialis</i>, feeds almost exclusively on the pandemic study species, <i>Acropora hyacinthus</i> (photo: Morgan Pratchett). (C) Tabular growth forms are particularly vulnerable to mechanical dislodgement during summer storms.</p

Projected coral cover under alternative future CO₂ stabilization scenarios.

<p>pCO₂ is assumed to affect demographic processes through different mechanisms in each panel: (A) coral and substrate weakening, (B) coral growth decline and substrate weakening, (C) coral weakening only, and (D) coral growth decline only. Curves represent the three published calcification responses to Ω_arag and SST: low, intermediate and high. Shaded areas capture the 2 to 11% range of predicted increases in future storm intensity <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0046637#pone.0046637-Knutson1" target="_blank">[3]</a>.</p

Parameterizing the population model using empirical demographic data.

<p>(A) <i>A. hyacinthus</i> colony planar area (m²) at year <i>t</i> +1 plotted against area at year <i>t</i> at the exposed reef crest study location. The unity line (intercept 0 and slope 1) illustrates that the majority of points fall in the region of increasing size. (B) Colony shape factor (<i>CSF</i>; dimensionless) as a function of colony planar area (m²) of <i>A. hyacinthus</i> colonies. Dashed lines in both panels represent 95% prediction intervals. (C) Log-likelihood profile for integral projection model recruitment parameter. The dashed line shows the log-likelihood 95% confidence bounds. (D) Colony size density distribution of <i>A. hyacinthus</i> at the study site (bars) and the best-fit model stable size distribution as a result of optimizing the recruitment parameter. Shaded area illustrates 95% log-likelihood confidence intervals.</p

The reef coral mechanical environment.

<p>Mean expected yearly mechanical threshold (<i>DMT</i>) as a function of storm intensity and atmospheric CO₂ scenario for reef calcification scenarios: strong (A, D), intermediate (B, E), and weak (C, F) applied to both reef substrate and coral (A–C) and coral only (D–F). The black points represent present-day estimates of mean yearly <i>DMT</i>. Shaded lines and areas represent parameters used in the IPM, including the pre-Industrial Revolution and two 2100 scenarios (doubling of Pre-Industrial Revolution [560 ppm] and doubling of present-day [750 ppm]). For reference, coral photographs illustrate <i>DMT</i> levels that would theoretically dislodge tabular colonies based on their shape.</p

Projected long-run density-independent growth rate <i>λ</i> for the <i>A. hyacinthus</i> meta-population.

<p>Values above unity (dashed line) imply capacity for population regeneration. Points and 95% confidence intervals show uncertainty in projected <i>λ</i> due to uncertainty in the estimate of per-capita recruitment. Panels and curves correspond with the same scenarios as presented in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0046637#pone-0046637-g005" target="_blank">Figure 5</a>.</p

coral interaction data, model output, code

(a) pairwise interspecific coral interactions with outcomes, for training and test sets, and references from which interactions are drawn, (b) coral traits and references, (c) model output, (d) R cod

Additional Analysis from Allometric growth in reef-building corals

Analysis of the robustness of morphotype classification, and of the inclusion of colony as a random facto

Prey excursion size in relation to protection status.

<p>Upper panel (a) is bullethead parrotfish (<i>C. sordidus</i>); lower panel (b) is blackbar damselfish (<i>P. dickii</i>). Points are means (±SE).</p

Prey excursion size and rate of movement in relation to acute predation risk for <i>C. sordidus</i> and <i>P. dickii</i>.

<p>Left-hand panels (a, c) show data from the Eastern Indo-Pacific (Line Islands); right-hand panels (b, d) are from the Central Indo-Pacific (GBR). Lines show best-fit upper 95% prediction intervals (dashed) and linear regressions (solid) based on a negative log-likelihood optimization function. Points are values for individual prey where predation risk is measured by predator biomass for <i>C. sordidus</i> and predator (biomass×duration) for <i>P. dickii</i>. Eastern Indo-Pacific (right-hand) panels are reproduced with permission from Madin et al. <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0032390#pone.0032390-Madin1" target="_blank">[13]</a>.</p

Biomass of piscivorous fishes.

<p>Piscivorous fish biomass (per unit reef area) at reefs used in this study. Bars are means (±SE).</p