Timing Constraints on Remote Sensing of Wildland Fire Burned Area in the Southeastern US

Remote sensing using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery is increasingly used for mapping wildland fire burned area and burn severity, owing to its frequency of collection, relatively high resolution, and availability free of charge. However, rapid response of vegetation following fire and frequent cloud cover pose challenges to this approach in the southeastern US. We assessed these timing constraints by using a series of Landsat TM images to determine how rapidly the remotely sensed burn scar signature fades following prescribed burns in wet flatwoods and depression swamp community types in the Apalachicola National Forest, Florida, USA during 2006. We used both the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) of reflectance bands sensitive to vegetation and exposed soil cover, as well as the change in NBR from before to after fire (dNBR), to estimate burned area. We also determined the average and maximum amount of time following fire required to obtain a cloud-free image for burns in each month of the year, as well as the predicted effect of this time lag on percent accuracy of burn scar estimates. Using both NBR and dNBR, the detectable area decreased linearly 9% per month on average over the first four months following fire. Our findings suggest that the NBR and dNBR methods for monitoring burned area in common southeastern US vegetation community types are limited to an average of 78–90% accuracy among months of the year, with individual burns having values as low as 38%, if restricted to use of Landsat 5 TM imagery. However, the majority of burns can still be mapped at accuracies similar to those in other regions of the US, and access to additional sources of satellite imagery would improve overall accuracy

Prototype Downscaling Algorithm for MODIS Satellite 1 km Daytime Active Fire Detections

This work presents development of an algorithm to reduce the spatial uncertainty of active fire locations within the 1 km MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Aqua and Terra) daytime detection footprint. The algorithm is developed using the finer 500 m reflective bands by leveraging on the increase in 2.13 μm shortwave infrared reflectance due to the burning components as compared to the non-burning neighborhood components. Active fire presence probability class for each of the 500 m pixels within the 1 km footprint is assigned by locally adaptive contextual tests against its surrounding neighborhood pixels. Accuracy is assessed using gas flares and wildfires in conjunction with available high-resolution imagery. Proof of concept results using MODIS observations over two sites show that under clear sky conditions, over 84% of the 500 m locations that had active fires were correctly assigned to high to medium probabilities, and correspondingly low to poor probabilities were assigned to locations with no visible flaming fronts. Factors limiting the algorithm performance include fire size/temperature distributions, cloud and smoke obscuration, sensor point spread functions, and geolocation errors. Despite these limitations, the resulting finer spatial scale of active fire detections will not only help first responders and managers to locate actively burning fire fronts more precisely but will also be useful for the fire science community

Quantifying variance across spatial scales as part of fire regime classifications

The emergence of large-scale fire classifications and products informed by remote sensing data has enabled opportunities to include variability or heterogeneity as part of modern fire regime classifications. Currently, basic fire metrics such as mean fire return intervals are calculated without considering spatial variance in a management context. Fire return intervals are also only applicable at a particular grain size (defined as the spatial unit of interest) even though they are typically applied homogeneously. In this study, we utilized a 29-yr fire occurrence database to show how spatial variance changes with respect to grain as postulated by Wiens (1989) when reporting fire patterns within the Great Plains, USA. We utilized data from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity database of fire occurrence for the years 1984–2012. We analyzed median numbers of fire along with their variance at four spatial grains ranging from small units (e.g., plots at 3 x 3 km resolution) to large units (e.g., landscapes at 1500 x 2700 km resolution). Median number of fire occurrences was consistently low, irrespective of grain. Despite the consistency in low median numbers of fires across grain, variance in the numbers of fires between units decreased. Variance within units, however, did not change as grain increased indicating fire-pattern-scale inconsistencies. Fire pattern interpretations depended entirely on the scale at which it is calculated. Given that the Great Plains region has a large disparity in fire patterns (i.e., some regions burn often, while others may never burn), fire regime classifications will benefit from including scale-specific variance estimates as a foundation for understanding changes in fire regimes and corresponding social–ecological and policy responses

Geospatial data mining for digital raster mapping

We performed an in-depth literature survey to identify the most popular data mining approaches that have been applied for raster mapping of ecological parameters through the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remotely sensed data. Popular data mining approaches included decision trees or “data mining” trees which consist of regression and classification trees, random forests, neural networks, and support vector machines. The advantages of each data mining approach as well as approaches to avoid overfitting are subsequently discussed. We also provide suggestions and examples for the mapping of problematic variables or classes, future or historical projections, and avoidance of model bias. Finally, we address the separate issues of parallel processing, error mapping, and incorporation of “no data” values into modeling processes. Given the improved availability of digital spatial products and remote sensing products, data mining approaches combined with parallel processing potentials should greatly improve the quality and extent of ecological datasets

LANDFIRE Remap Prototype Mapping Effort: Developing a New Framework for Mapping Vegetation Classification, Change, and Structure

LANDFIRE (LF) National (2001) was the original product suite of the LANDFIRE program, which included Existing Vegetation Cover (EVC), Height (EVH), and Type (EVT). Subsequent refinements after feedback from data users resulted in updated products, referred to as LF 2001, that now served as LANDFIRE’s baseline datasets and are the basis for all subsequent LANDFIRE updates. These updates account for disturbances and vegetation transition changes that may not represent current vegetation conditions. Therefore, in 2016 LANDFIRE initiated the Remap prototype to determine how to undertake a national-scale remap of the LANDFIRE primary vegetation datasets. EVC, EVH, and EVT were produced (circa 2015) via modeling for ecologically variable prototyping areas in the Pacific Northwest (NW) and Grand Canyon (GC). An error analysis within the GC suggested an overall accuracy of 52% (N = 800) for EVT, and a goodness of fit of 51% (N = 38) for percent cover (continuous EVC) and 53% (N = 38) for height (continuous EVH). The prototyping effort included a new 81-class map using the National Vegetation Classification (NVC) within the NW. This paper presents a narrative of the innovative methodologies in image processing and mapping used to create the new LANDFIRE vegetation products

An Optimal Sample Data Usage Strategy to Minimize Overfitting and Underfitting Effects in Regression Tree Models Based on Remotely-Sensed Data

Regression tree models have been widely used for remote sensing-based ecosystem mapping. Improper use of the sample data (model training and testing data) may cause overfitting and underfitting effects in the model. The goal of this study is to develop an optimal sampling data usage strategy for any dataset and identify an appropriate number of rules in the regression tree model that will improve its accuracy and robustness. Landsat 8 data and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-scaled Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were used to develop regression tree models. A Python procedure was designed to generate random replications of model parameter options across a range of model development data sizes and rule number constraints. The mean absolute difference (MAD) between the predicted and actual NDVI (scaled NDVI, value from 0–200) and its variability across the different randomized replications were calculated to assess the accuracy and stability of the models. In our case study, a six-rule regression tree model developed from 80% of the sample data had the lowest MAD (MADtraining = 2.5 and MADtesting = 2.4), which was suggested as the optimal model. This study demonstrates how the training data and rule number selections impact model accuracy and provides important guidance for future remote-sensing-based ecosystem modeling

The Spatially Adaptable Filter for Error Reduction (SAFER) Process: Remote Sensing-Based LANDFIRE Disturbance Mapping Updates

LANDFIRE (LF) has been producing periodic spatially explicit vegetation change maps (i.e., LF disturbance products) across the entire United States since 1999 at a 30 m spatial resolution. These disturbance products include data products produced by various fire programs, field-mapped vegetation and fuel treatment activity (i.e., events) submissions from various agencies, and disturbances detected by the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS)-based Remote Sensing of Landscape Change (RSLC) process. The RSLC process applies a bi-temporal change detection algorithm to Landsat satellite-based seasonal composites to generate the interim disturbances that are subsequently reviewed by analysts to reduce omission and commission errors before ingestion them into LF’s disturbance products. The latency of the disturbance product is contingent on timely data availability and analyst review. This work describes the development and integration of the Spatially Adaptable Filter for Error Reduction (SAFER) process and other error and latency reduction improvements to the RSLC process. SAFER is a random forest-based supervised classifier and uses predictor variables that are derived from multiple years of pre- and post-disturbance Landsat band observations. Predictor variables include reflectance, indices, and spatial contextual information. Spatial contextual information that is unique to each contiguous disturbance region is parameterized as Z scores using differential observations of the disturbed regions with its undisturbed neighbors. The SAFER process was prototyped for inclusion in the RSLC process over five regions within the conterminous United States (CONUS) and regional model performance, evaluated using 2016 data. Results show that the inclusion of the SAFER process increased the accuracies of the interim disturbance detections and thus has potential to reduce the time needed for analyst review. LF does not track the time taken by each analyst for each tile, and hence, the relative effort saved was parameterized as the percentage of 30 m pixels that are correctly classified in the SAFER outputs to the total number of pixels that are incorrectly classified in the interim disturbance and are presented. The SAFER prototype outputs showed that the relative analysts’ effort saved could be over 95%. The regional model performance evaluation showed that SAFER’s performance depended on the nature of disturbances and availability of cloud-free images relative to the time of disturbances. The accuracy estimates for CONUS were inferred by comparing the 2017 SAFER outputs to the 2017 analyst-reviewed data. As expected, the SAFER outputs had higher accuracies compared to the interim disturbances, and CONUS-wide relative effort saved was over 92%. The regional variation in the accuracies and effort saved are discussed in relation to the vegetation and disturbance type in each region. SAFER is now operationally integrated into the RSLC process, and LANDFIRE is well poised for annual updates, contingent on the availability of data