A Joint Framework for Analysis of Agri-Environmental Payment Programs

This paper presents an approach for simultaneously estimating farmers' decisions to accept incentive payments in return for adopting a bundle of environmentally benign management practices. Using the results of a multinomial probit analysis of surveys of over 1,000 farmers facing ten adoption decisions in an EQIP-type program, we show how the farmers' perceptions of the desirability of various bundles changes with the offer amounts and with which practices are offered in the program.incentive payments, EQIP, simulated multivariate normal, multinomial probit, simulated maximum likelihood estimation, best management practices, Environmental Economics and Policy,

Economic Aspects of Revenue-Based Commodity Support

Interest in revenue-based commodity support is evident in the Food, Conservation and Energy Act of 2008 (the 2008 Farm Bill), which gives eligible producers the option of participating in the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program in return for reductions and eliminations of payments under more traditional programs. This report examines how the uncertainty in U.S. domestic commodity support payments for corn may differ between traditional-style approaches (defined as price-based payments plus yield-based disaster payments) to support and two revenue-based support scenarios. Variability around the total expected annual payment was found to be lower under revenue-based support, as was the probability of high payments. These results suggest potential advantages to this type of support, both in terms of lower budgetary uncertainty for the Federal Government and in better ensuring that agricultural support outlays stay below a certain ceiling. In addition, the volatility of corn revenue was found to be lower in almost all corn producing counties under the revenue-based alternatives than under the traditional price-based approaches.Domestic commodity support, revenue-based support, marketing loan benefits, countercyclical payments, disaster assistance, Federal crop insurance, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Financial Economics,

COMBINING ACTUAL AND CONTINGENT BEHAVIOR DATA TO MODEL FARMER ADOPTION OF WATER QUALITY PROTECTION PRACTICES

Using farmer responses to contingent valuation method (CVM) survey data in combination with actual market data from four watershed regions in the United States, this study estimates the minimum incentives payments a farmer would accept in order to adopt more environmentally friendly “"best management practices"” (BMPs). Combining actual market data with the CVM data adds information to the analysis, thereby most likely increasing the reliability of the results compared to analyzing the contingent behavior survey response data only. Given the decision to adopt, the article also presents a pooled model for the number of acres enrolled in the BMPs as a function of the incentive payments. Adoption rates predicted with the combination data model are significantly higher over a wide range of offers than those predicted using the traditional discrete choice analysis with the hypothetical data only. Hence, using the traditional CVM analysis results to determine payments to attain a given level of adoption may result in overpayment.Environmental Economics and Policy,

Payments under the Average Crop Revenue Program: Implications for Government Costs and Producer Preferences

This paper develops a stochastic model for comparing payments to U.S. corn producers under the U.S. Senate’s Average Crop Revenue Program (ACR) versus payments under the price-based marketing loan benefit and countercyclical payment programs. Using this model, the paper examines the sensitivity of the density function for payments to changes in expected price levels. We also assess the impact of the choice of yield aggregation used in the ACR payment rate on the mean and variance of farm returns. We find that ACR payments lower the producer’s coefficient of variation of total revenue more than does the price-based support, although ACR may not raise mean revenue as much. While corn farmers in the heartland states might still prefer to receive the traditional forms of support when prices are low relative to statutory loan rates and target prices, this outcome is not necessarily the case for farmers in peripheral production regions.domestic support, counter-cyclical payments, revenue, price, corn, yield, pairs bootstrap, kernel density, combinatorial optimization, Agricultural and Food Policy,

A Globally Flexible Model for Crop Yields Under Weather Risk

The literature on climate change and crop yields recognizes the need to allow for highly non-linear marginal effects. This study combines these two areas of the literature by using Flexible Fourier Transforms (FFT’s) to ensure flexibility for both the time trend and the weather effects. This study also illustrates how FFT’s can be combined with quantile regression (QR) to provide both robustness to outliers and information on the scale effects of time and weather variables. For U.S. county level data on corn, soybeans, and winter wheat, we estimate the relationship between yield and temperature and precipitation using a traditional parametric expected-yield estimator, our quantile-FFT regression evaluated at the median, and our QR-FFT regression that incorporates information on the tails of the distribution. We find that quadratic terms are not sufficient for capturing nonlinearities in the relationship between yield and the explanatory variables.Crop yield distributions, flexible fourier transforms, quantile regression, Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Incentive payments to encourage farmer adoption of water quality protection practices

Farmers can be encouraged to voluntarily adopt environmentally sound management practices through the use of incentive payments. This paper uses both a bivariate probit with sample selection model and a double hurdle model on data from a survey of farmers to predict farmer adoption of the practices as a function of the payment offer. The five management practices addressed here are integrated pest management,legume crediting, manure testing, split applications of nitrogen, and soil moisture testing. Also estimated are models that predict the acreage on which these practices would be applied given the decision to accept the incentive payments estimated.bivariate probit; double hurdle; incentive payments; sample selection; water quality

The effect of rental rates on the extension of Conservation Reserve Program contracts

Given that the majority of conservation reserve program (CRP) contracts on approximately 36 million acres of enrolled land expire concurrently, re-enrollment decisions by farmers and the federal government have high budgetary implications. Using a survey of over 8,000 CRP contract holders, we apply an ordered response discrete choice model to explicitly model the range in rental rates over which the representative farmer may be ambivalent to renewing the CRP contract. Given the empirical results from the ordered response model, we estimate acreage re-enrollment as a function of the rental rate and compare them to results of a binomial choice model.CRP contracts; ordered probit; re-enrollment; respondent indifference

Acreage Decisions When Risk Preferences Vary

This presentation summarizes an AAEA poster.Risk preferences, acreage decision, soybeans, corn, wheat, Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Identifying and Reducing Overlap in Farm Program Support

The current debate surrounding the 2012 Farm Act stresses cutting costs while maintaining, or even strengthening, farmers’ “safety net.” One way to cut costs is to reduce or eliminate potential overlap of farm program payments. Using simulations, we explore the interaction between the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program and a revenue assurance (RA) crop insurance program for corn, soybean, and wheat farmers in IL, MN, and SD. Additionally, we examine whether receiving benefits from multiple programs (an RA program, the Supplemental Revenue (SURE) program, and an ad hoc disaster assistance program) distorts farmers’ business decisions. We find overlap between ACRE and crop insurance, which could lead to budgetary savings if these two programs were to be integrated. Moreover, despite policymakers explicitly incorporating insurance indemnities into SURE payment calculations, access to both programs can alter behavior. Finally, in a counter-factual analysis, we show that removing ad hoc payments from the SURE would likely alter farm behavior.commodity support, average crop revenue election, Supplemental Revenue Assistance, expected utility, corn, wheat, soybeans, Agricultural and Food Policy, Production Economics, Risk and Uncertainty,

Globally Flexible Modeling of County-Level Acreage Response for Primary U.S. Field Crops

This study takes the standard acreage response model that stems from an expected utility framework, accounting for both price and yield variability, and nests it within a flexible semi-nonparametric (SNP) model consistent with farm-level decision models for computationally tractable results. We use county-level data to estimate the response of farmers’ planting preferences to changes in revenue and other variables.acreage response, Elasticities, field crops, semi-nonparametric, risk, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty,