Reinvested Earnings Bias, The “Five Percent” Rule and the Interpretation of the Balance of Payments – With an Application to Transition Economies

We show that the imputation of reinvested profits of the subsidiaries of foreign firms as a debit item on a host country's balance of payments account tends to overstate the current account deficit. We also show that, because of the workings of the FDI financial life cycle, this phenomenon is most evident for countries that have recently received large inflows of capital. The transition economies of East Europe certainly fall among such countries, and we show that, for the Czech Republic and Hungary, this imputation has a large effect on their reported current account balance. We verify the working of the FDI financial life cycle using two different panels of developed, developing and transition economies.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39928/3/wp543.pd

Foreign direct invesment and perceptions of vulnerability to foreign exchange crises: Evidence from transition economies

We show that the imputation of reinvested profits of the subsidiaries of foreign firms as a debit item on a host country's balance of payments account tends to overstate the current account deficit and to make the host country seem more vulnerable to financial crisis. We also show that, because of the workings of the FDI financial life cycle, this phenomenon is most evident for countries that have recently received large inflows of capital. The transition economies of East Europe certainly fall among such countries, and we show that, for the Czech Republic and Hungary, this imputation has a large effect on their reported current account balance. We verify the working of the FDI financial life cycle using a panel of transition economies. --balance of payments,foreign exchange crisis,foreign direct investment,transition economies

The End of Moderate Inflation in Three Transition Economies?

This paper examines the moderation of inflation in three transition economies, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland at the end of the 1990s. We argue that the institutions for the conduct of monetary policy in these countries were relatively weak and that monetary policy was unsupported by fiscal policy and hampered by multiple objectives. Using a VAR model of inflation, we show that, under a variety of assumptions, foreign prices and the persistence of inflation were the key determinants of inflation in these countries. From this finding we conclude that the moderation of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland was due largely to the decline in import prices from 1997 on, and thus it is likely be a temporary phenomenon.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39817/3/wp433.pd

Balkan and Mediterranean Candidates for European Union Membership: The Convergence of their Monetary Policy with that of the European Central Bank

We compare the convergence with German monetary policy of the Balkan and Mediterranean country candidates for EU membership with that of countries that have recently joined the EU. Significant linkages exist between German base money stock and that of recent members of the EU; the same holds true for some of the Mediterranean region candidates for EU membership and for Slovenia and Croatia. Among the other Balkan economies and Turkey, the ability to follow the policies of the Bundesbank is nonexistent. Such weak policy coordination suggests the need for strengthening the financial sectors of these countries, for macroeconomic stabilization and for a period in which they tie their policies more closely to the ECB before they can be considered serious candidates for EU membership.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39840/3/wp456.pd

Reinvested Earnings Bias, The “Five Percent” Rule and the Interpretation of the Balance of Payments – With an Application to Transition Economies

We show that the imputation of reinvested profits of the subsidiaries of foreign firms as a debit item on a host country's balance of payments account tends to overstate the current account deficit. We also show that, because of the workings of the FDI financial life cycle, this phenomenon is most evident for countries that have recently received large inflows of capital. The transition economies of East Europe certainly fall among such countries, and we show that, for the Czech Republic and Hungary, this imputation has a large effect on their reported current account balance. We verify the working of the FDI financial life cycle using two different panels of developed, developing and transition economies.balance of payments, financial crisis, foreign direct investment, transition economies

Balkan and Mediterranean candidates for European Union membership: The convergence of their monetary policy with that of the European Central Bank

We compare the convergence with German monetary policy of the Balkan and Mediterranean country candidates for EU membership with that of countries that have recently joined the EU. Significant linkages exist between German base money stock and that of recent members of the EU; the same holds true for some of the Mediterranean region candidates for EU membership and for Slovenia and Croatia. Among the other Balkan economies and Turkey, the ability to follow the policies of the Bundesbank is nonexistent. Such weak policy coordination suggests the need for strengthening the financial sectors of these countries, for macroeconomic stabilization and for a period in which they tie their policies more closely to the ECB before they can be considered serious candidates for EU membership. --convergence,economic integration,monetary policy,transition economies

The End of Moderate Inflation in Three Transition Economies?

This paper examines the moderation of inflation in three transition economies, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland at the end of the 1990s. We argue that the institutions for the conduct of monetary policy in these countries were relatively weak and that monetary policy was unsupported by fiscal policy and hampered by multiple objectives. Using a VAR model of inflation, we show that, under a variety of assumptions, foreign prices and the persistence of inflation were the key determinants of inflation in these countries. From this finding we conclude that the moderation of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland was due largely to the decline in import prices from 1997 on, and thus it is likely be a temporary phenomenon.monetary and fiscal policy, transition economies, moderate inflation and inflation targeting

The end of moderate inflation in three transition economies?

This paper examines the ending of moderate rates of inflation in three transition economies, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland at the end of 1998. We argue that the institutions for the conduct of monetary policy in these countries were relatively weak and that monetary policy was unsupported by fiscal policy and hampered by multiple objectives. Using a VAR model of inflation, we show that, under a variety of assumptions, foreign prices and the persistence of inflation are the key determinants of inflation in these countries. From this finding we conclude that the end of moderate inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland was largely due to the decline in import prices in the second half of 1998, and thus it may be a temporary phenomenon. --Monetary and fiscal Policy,transition economies,moderate inflation,inflation targeting

The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union

We compare the convergence with German monetary policy of the monetary policy of transitioneconomy candidates for EU membership, of non-transition candidates and of countries that have recently joined the EU. We find significant long- and short-run linkages between German base money stock and that of the most recent members of the EU; the same holds true for the nontransition economy candidates. Among the transition economies, the ability to follow the policies of the Bundesbank is weaker or, for some countries, nonexistent. Such weak policy coordination may reflect the need for building up the financial sectors of these countries and allowing for a period in which they tie their policies more closely to that of the ECB. --

The evolution of monetary policy in transition economies

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