Non-stationary Job Search When Jobs Do Not Last Forever: A Structural Estimation to Evaluate Alternative Unemployment Insurance Systems

This paper considers a job search model where the environment is not constant throughout the unemployment spell and where jobs do not last forever. In this situation, reservation wages can be lower than they would be in a model without consideration of such separations, but also they can initially be higher precisely because of this non-stationarity of the model. Moreover, the time-dependence of reservation wages is stronger than it is when separations are not controlled for. The model is estimated structurally by using Spanish data for the period 1985-1996. The main finding is that, although at the beginning the decrease in reservation wages is the main determinant of the exit from unemployment, as time progresses the job offer arrival rate comes to be the only significant factor, given that acceptance probabilities become equal to one. The estimated parameters are used to evaluate the effect of different Unemployment Insurance designs on unemployment duration. Accordingly, one can draw the conclusion that a sufficiently decreasing pattern in unemployment benefits makes this duration to be 8.4% lower.Job Search, Nonstationarity, Unemployment, Separation probability, Structural estimation, Unemployment Insurance.

Retirement incentives, individual heterogeneity and labour transitions of employed and unemployed workers

Un informe que analiza la incidencia de las políticas públicas relevantes en edades próximas a la jubilación sobre las decisiones laborales de de trabajadores empleados y desempleados.Retirement, unemployment, incentives, Pension system, Unobserved heterogeneity, Spain

Electric-magnetic duality in linearized Ho\v{r}ava-Lifshitz gravity

Known as a symmetry of vacuum Maxwell equations, the electric-magnetic duality can be lifted actually to a symmetry of an action. The Lagrangian of this action is written in terms of two vector potentials, one electric and one magnetic, and while it is manifestly invariant under duality rotations, it is not manifestly Lorentz covariant. This duality symmetry exists also in linearized gravity in four dimensions, and can be lifted off shell too. In $d$ dimensions, the link between linearized gravity and its dual can also be seen from the point of view of a parental action. This is defined by a first order Lagrangian (with the help of some auxiliary variables) that delivers both Fierz-Pauli theory and its dual. In this work we use this formalism to implement the electric-magnetic duality in the nonrelativistic deviation of Fierz-Pauli theory arising from Ho\v{r}ava-Lifshitz gravity. Because this theory breaks diffeomorphism invariance, one finds that such implementation includes some peculiarities.Comment: v1: 23 pages, 4 figures, edited with LaTeXila 2.4.0 and wxMaxima 12.04.0 for the graphics (Maxima version: 5.27.0). arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1306.1092 by other authors; v2: 24 pages, 4 figures, references added, negligence (leading to poor version management and miscommunication) rectified; v3: typos and grammar corrected, minor changes to uniformize convention

School To Work Transitions And The Impact Of Public Expenditure On Education

In this paper we analyse how the decentralization process of the Spanish educational system has affected the school-to-work transition of youths over the last years. Using individual data from the Spanish Labor Force Survey for the period 1993-2002, we estimate a simultaneous equation model for the unemployment and employment hazard rates of these workers. We include public expenditure on education, at the regional level, as an explanatory factor in both hazards. Furthermore we account for cross-regional differences regarding the decision-making authority over education. Our results reveal that for both, university and non-university levels, public expenditure on education significantly improves the chances of Spanish youths in finding the first job after completing the educational system. However, it seems that the decentralization of university education has negative effects on youths’ labor market prospects in terms of exiting from unemployment, while no effects are observed for the case of non-university education.educational expenditure; decentralization; unemployment hazard; employment hazard

Unobserved Heterogeneity in Multi-Spell Discrete Time Duration Models

This paper considers the estimation of discrete time duration models. We highlight the enhance identification opportunities embedded in multiple spell data to separately identify the effect of duration dependence and individual time invariant unobserved heterogeneity. We consider two types of models: (i) random effects models specifying a mass point distribution for the unobserved heterogeneity; and (ii) fixed effects models in which the distribution of the effects is left unrestricted. The availability of multiple spell data allows us to consider this type of models, in the spirit of fixed effects discrete choice panel data models. We study the finite sample properties of different estimators for previous models by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, as an empirical illustration, we estimate unemployment duration models using Spanish administrative data with information on the entire labor history of the individuals.Duration models; Discrete choice; Multiple spells; Unobserved heterogeneity; Unemployment.

Unemployment Duration among Immigrants and Natives: Unobserved Heterogeneity in a Multi-Spell Duration Model

This paper studies whether the unemployment dynamics of immigrants differ from those of natives, paying special attention to the impact of accounting for unobserved heterogeneity among individuals. Using a large administrative data set for Spain, we estimate multiple-spell discrete duration models which disentangle unobserved heterogeneity from duration dependence. Specifically, we estimate random effects models assuming that the distribution of the effects is discrete with finite support, and fixed effects models in which the distribution of the unobserved effects is left unrestricted. Our results show the importance of accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and that mistaken policy implications can be derived due to improper treatment of unmeasured variables. We find that lack of control for unobserved heterogeneity leads to the conclusion that immigrant males have a higher probability of leaving unemployment than natives and that the negative effect of unemployment benefits for immigrants lasts longer than for natives. Nonetheless, the estimates which do control for unobserved heterogeneity show the opposite results.Duration models; Discrete choice; Multiple spells; Unobserved heterogeneity; Unemployment; Immigration.

Unobserved heterogeneity in multi-spell discrete time duration model

This paper considers the estimation of discrete time duration models. We highlight the enhance identification opportunities embedded in multiple spell data to separately identify the effect of duration dependence and individual time invariant unobserved heterogeneity.Duration models, Discrete choice, Multiple spells, Unobserved heterogeneity, Unemployment.

Wage changes through job mobility in Europe: A multinomial endogenous switching approach

This paper presents evidence on the relationship between job mobility and wage mobility for some European countries using the European Community Household Panel (1994- 2001). While much of the earlier research uses least-squares regression to predict wages for individuals with different work experience, we find that it is important to take account of possible non-random selection between job movers and job stayers and between voluntary and involuntary movers. In this paper we focus on the effects of a spell of unemployment on subsequent wages by estimating a multinomial endogenous switching model composed of two selection equations and three wage equations. Our results indicate that job mobility through unemployment has negative returns in all the analysed economies. Relative to stayers, these losses range from 5% in Portugal to 22% in Germany.wage mobility, job mobility, unemployment, endogenous switching,multinomial probit, wage penalties

Social security and the search behaviour of workers approaching retirement

This paper explores the links between unemployment, retirement and their associated public insurance programs. It is a contribution to a growing body of literature focused on a better understanding of the labor behavior of advanced—age workers, which has gained importance as the pension crisis looms. The analysis combines the development of a new theoretical model and a detailed exploration of the empirical regularities using the Spanish Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales (MCVL) dataset. The model is a extension of the standard search model, designed to reproduce the non—stationary environment faced by workers approaching retirement and to explore the interaction of unemployment benefits and retirement pensions. Via calibrated simulations we show that the basic empirical reemployment and retirement patterns can be rationalized as the optimal responses to both the labor market conditions and the institutional incentives. Generous Unemployment Benefits (for durations of up to two years) together with very significant early retirement penalties, make optimal to stay unemployed without searching for large groups of unemployed workers. This moral hazard problem can he substantially alleviated through institutional reform. Setting the early retirement penalties according to the age when the individual withdraws from the labor force (rather than when he/she claims the pension for the first time) seems particularly beneficial. It increases the labor supply, reduces the financial cost for the social security system and generate enough extra resources to compensate for the welfare loss of those unemployed directly hit by the reform.Unemployment search, job benefit, retirement

The use of permanent and temporary jobs across Spanish regions: Do unit labour cost differentials offer an explanation?

We study the use of permanent and temporary contracts across Spanish regions during the period 1995-2001. First we show that there are significant differences among the regional rates of permanent employment and that these differences tend to persist over time. To understand the underlying factors behind these observed differences we estimate a binary choice model for the individual probability of having a permanent contract, taking advantage of the panel data dimension of the Spanish Labour Force Survey. Our main results are that unit labour cost differentials, and thus labour productivity and total labour cost differentials, partially explain the divergence of regional permanent employment rates. Moreover, compared to the influence of regional fixed effects and other possible explanations such as sector specialisation or the presence of small firms in the region, unit labour costs explain more than two thirds of the observed variance in the permanent employment rate across Spanish regions, once all the relevant heterogeneity is taken into account .Temporary Employment, Unit Labour Costs, Random Effects, Spanish Regions.