Community phylogenetics at the biogeographical scale: cold tolerance, niche conservatism and the structure of North American forests

Aim The fossil record has led to a historical explanation for forest diversity gradients within the cool parts of the Northern Hemisphere, founded on a limited ability of woody angiosperm clades to adapt to mid-Tertiary cooling. We tested four predictions of how this should be manifested in the phylogenetic structure of 91,340 communities: (1) forests to the north should comprise species from younger clades (families) than forests to the south; (2) average cold tolerance at a local site should be associated with the mean family age (MFA) of species; (3) minimum temperature should account for MFA better than alternative environmental variables; and (4) traits associated with survival in cold climates should evolve under a niche conservatism constraint. Location The contiguous United States. Methods We extracted angiosperms from the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis database. MFA was calculated by assigning age of the family to which each species belongs and averaging across the species in each community. We developed a phylogeny to identify phylogenetic signal in five traits: realized cold tolerance, seed size, seed dispersal mode, leaf phenology and height. Phylogenetic signal representation curves and phylogenetic generalized least squares were used to compare patterns of trait evolution against Brownian motion. Eleven predictors structured at broad or local scales were generated to explore relationships between environment and MFA using random forest and general linear models. Results Consistent with predictions, (1) southern communities comprise angiosperm species from older families than northern communities, (2) cold tolerance is the trait most strongly associated with local MFA, (3) minimum temperature in the coldest month is the environmental variable that best describes MFA, broad-scale variables being much stronger correlates than local-scale variables, and (4) the phylogenetic structures of cold tolerance and at least one other trait associated with survivorship in cold climates indicate niche conservatism. Main conclusions Tropical niche conservatism in the face of long-term climate change, probably initiated in the Late Cretaceous associated with the rise of the Rocky Mountains, is a strong driver of the phylogenetic structure of the angiosperm component of forest communities across the USA. However, local deterministic and/or stochastic processes account for perhaps a quarter of the variation in the MFA of local communities

Phylogenetic structure of geographical co-occurrence among New World Triatominae species, vectors of Chagas disease

The tropical niche conservatism (TNC) hypothesis is one of the most prominent evolutionary hypotheses that has been supported as an explanation for the diversity gradients of several animal taxa, mainly vertebrates. However, the validity of TNC for less-known taxa such as disease vectors is not clear. Here, we test predictions of TNC in driving the geographical co-occurrence among triatomine species, vector insects of Chagas disease. We aim to infer the relative effects of ecological and evolutionary processes in determining triatomine species richness at broad spatial scales. Location: America. Taxon: Triatominae (Hemiptera: Reduviidae). Methods: We gathered distributional, phylogenetic and climatic information for 63 triatomine species. We apply the phylogenetic field (PF) framework based on the phylogenetic structure of species co-occurrences, considering their climatic preferences. We defined PFs of species by estimating the phylogenetic structure of species co-occurrence within a focal species’ range. Likewise, climatic conditions within focal species’ ranges were defined as their preferred climates. We applied a spatial-phylogenetic statistical framework to evaluate geographical variation of species’ co-occurrence and tested the significance of PFs based on biogeographically informed null models. Results: Phylogenetic fields of 17 out of 59 triatomine species showed a trend from overdispersed to clustered, coincident with tropical to subtropical–temperate climate. Triatomines co-occur with more closely related species in temperate areas and more distantly related species in tropical areas. Temperature seasonality was inversely related to the phylogenetic structure of co-occurrence within species ranges. Main conclusions: Geographical co-occurrence among triatomine species revealed a tropical to subtropical–temperate gradient from overdispersed to clustered PFs and a correspondence between the type of climate in which these species are found and their PFs. Phylogenetic structure within triatomine ranges is explained by their evolutionary history. Our study provides a methodological framework to evaluate the New World triatomine geographical co-occurrence patterns under a phylogenetic perspective and our results make an important contribution to the understanding of the broad-scale biodiversity patterns in Triatominae.Fil: Ceccarelli, Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo. Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores; ArgentinaFil: Justi, Silvia A.. Smithsonian Institution Museum Support Center; Estados Unidos. Walter Reed Army Institute of Research. Entomology Branch; Estados UnidosFil: Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo. Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores; ArgentinaFil: Diniz Filho, José Alexandre F.. Universidade Federal de Goiás; BrasilFil: Villalobos, Fabricio. Universidade Federal de Goiás; Brasil. Instituto de Ecología; Méxic

Community phylogenetics at the biogeographical scale: cold tolerance, niche conservatism and the structure of North American forests

Aim The fossil record has led to a historical explanation for forest diversity gradients within the cool parts of the Northern Hemisphere, founded on a limited ability of woody angiosperm clades to adapt to mid-Tertiary cooling. We tested four predictions of how this should be manifested in the phylogenetic structure of 91,340 communities: (1) forests to the north should comprise species from younger clades (families) than forests to the south; (2) average cold tolerance at a local site should be associated with the mean family age (MFA) of species; (3) minimum temperature should account for MFA better than alternative environmental variables; and (4) traits associated with survival in cold climates should evolve under a niche conservatism constraint. Location The contiguous United States. Methods We extracted angiosperms from the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis database. MFA was calculated by assigning age of the family to which each species belongs and averaging across the species in each community. We developed a phylogeny to identify phylogenetic signal in five traits: realized cold tolerance, seed size, seed dispersal mode, leaf phenology and height. Phylogenetic signal representation curves and phylogenetic generalized least squares were used to compare patterns of trait evolution against Brownian motion. Eleven predictors structured at broad or local scales were generated to explore relationships between environment and MFA using random forest and general linear models. Results Consistent with predictions, (1) southern communities comprise angiosperm species from older families than northern communities, (2) cold tolerance is the trait most strongly associated with local MFA, (3) minimum temperature in the coldest month is the environmental variable that best describes MFA, broad-scale variables being much stronger correlates than local-scale variables, and (4) the phylogenetic structures of cold tolerance and at least one other trait associated with survivorship in cold climates indicate niche conservatism. Main conclusions Tropical niche conservatism in the face of long-term climate change, probably initiated in the Late Cretaceous associated with the rise of the Rocky Mountains, is a strong driver of the phylogenetic structure of the angiosperm component of forest communities across the USA. However, local deterministic and/or stochastic processes account for perhaps a quarter of the variation in the MFA of local communities

Modeling the ecology and evolution of biodiversity: Biogeographical cradles, museums, and graves

Individual processes shaping geographical patterns of biodiversity are increasingly understood, but their complex interactions on broad spatial and temporal scales remain beyond the reach of analytical models and traditional experiments. To meet this challenge, we built a spatially explicit, mechanistic simulation model implementing adaptation, range shifts, fragmentation, speciation, dispersal, competition, and extinction, driven by modeled climates of the past 800,000 years in South America. Experimental topographic smoothing confirmed the impact of climate heterogeneity on diversification. The simulations identified regions and episodes of speciation (cradles), persistence (museums), and extinction (graves). Although the simulations had no target pattern and were not parameterized with empirical data, emerging richness maps closely resembled contemporary maps for major taxa, confirming powerful roles for evolution and diversification driven by topography and climate

A review of techniques for spatial modeling in geographical, conservation and landscape genetics

Most evolutionary processes occur in a spatial context and several spatial analysis techniques have been employed in an exploratory context. However, the existence of autocorrelation can also perturb significance tests when data is analyzed using standard correlation and regression techniques on modeling genetic data as a function of explanatory variables. In this case, more complex models incorporating the effects of autocorrelation must be used. Here we review those models and compared their relative performances in a simple simulation, in which spatial patterns in allele frequencies were generated by a balance between random variation within populations and spatially-structured gene flow. Notwithstanding the somewhat idiosyncratic behavior of the techniques evaluated, it is clear that spatial autocorrelation affects Type I errors and that standard linear regression does not provide minimum variance estimators. Due to its flexibility, we stress that principal coordinate of neighbor matrices (PCNM) and related eigenvector mapping techniques seem to be the best approaches to spatial regression. In general, we hope that our review of commonly used spatial regression techniques in biology and ecology may aid population geneticists towards providing better explanations for population structures dealing with more complex regression problems throughout geographic space

Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change

Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are fraught with uncertainties and ensemble forecasting may provide a framework to deal with such uncertainties. Here, a novel approach to partition the variance among modeled attributes, such as richness or turnover, and map sources of uncertainty in ensembles of forecasts is presented. We model the distributions of 3837 New World birds and project them into 2080. We then quantify and map the relative contribution of different sources of uncertainty from alternative methods for niche modeling, general circulation models (AOGCM), and emission scenarios. The greatest source of uncertainty in forecasts of species range shifts arises from using alternative methods for niche modeling, followed by AOGCM, and their interaction. Our results concur with previous studies that discovered that projections from alternative models can be extremely varied, but we provide a new analytical framework to examine uncertainties in models by quantifying their importance and mapping their patterns

Climatic and evolutionary factors shaping geographical gradients of species richness in Anolis lizards

Understanding the climatic and historical factors shaping species richness is a major goal of ecology and biogeography. Consensus on how climate affects species richness is still lacking, but four potential and non-exclusive explanations have emerged: water-energy, where diversity is determined by precipitation and/or temperature; seasonality, where diversity is determined by seasonal variation in climate; heterogeneity, where diversity is determined by spatial variability in climate; and historical climatic stability, where diversity is determined by changes in climate through evolutionary time. Climate–richness relationships are also mediated by historical processes such as phylogenetic niche conservatism and lineage diversification across regions. We evaluated the effect of climate on species richness gradients of Anolis lizards and tested the role of phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC) and regional diversification (RD) in the origin and maintenance of climate-richness relationships. Climate had a strong non-stationary relationship with species richness with strong shared effects among several climate axes. Regional differences in climate–richness relationships suggest different assembly processes between regions. However, we did not find evidence for a role of evolutionary factors such as PNC or RD underlying these relationships. We suggest that evolutionary processes affecting climate-richness relationships in Anolis likely were obscured by high dispersal rates between regions

Climatic and evolutionary factors shaping geographical gradients of species richness in Anolis lizards

Understanding the climatic and historical factors shaping species richness is a major goal of ecology and biogeography. Consensus on how climate affects species richness is still lacking, but four potential and non-exclusive explanations have emerged: water-energy, where diversity is determined by precipitation and/or temperature; seasonality, where diversity is determined by seasonal variation in climate; heterogeneity, where diversity is determined by spatial variability in climate; and historical climatic stability, where diversity is determined by changes in climate through evolutionary time. Climate–richness relationships are also mediated by historical processes such as phylogenetic niche conservatism and lineage diversification across regions. We evaluated the effect of climate on species richness gradients of Anolis lizards and tested the role of phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC) and regional diversification (RD) in the origin and maintenance of climate-richness relationships. Climate had a strong non-stationary relationship with species richness with strong shared effects among several climate axes. Regional differences in climate–richness relationships suggest different assembly processes between regions. However, we did not find evidence for a role of evolutionary factors such as PNC or RD underlying these relationships. We suggest that evolutionary processes affecting climate-richness relationships in Anolis likely were obscured by high dispersal rates between regions

The role of protected areas in the avoidance of anthropogenic conversion in a high pressure region : a matching method analysis in the core region of the brazilian cerrado

Global efforts to avoid anthropogenic conversion of natural habitat rely heavily on the establishment of protected areas. Studies that evaluate the effectiveness of these areas with a focus on preserving the natural habitat define effectiveness as a measure of the influence of protected areas on total avoided conversion. Changes in the estimated effectiveness are related to local and regional differences, evaluation methods, restriction categories that include the protected areas, and other characteristics. The overall objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas to prevent the advance of the conversion of natural areas in the core region of the Brazil’s Cerrado Biome, taking into account the influence of the restriction degree, governmental sphere, time since the establishment of the protected area units, and the size of the area on the performance of protected areas. The evaluation was conducted using matching methods and took into account the following two fundamental issues: control of statistical biases caused by the influence of covariates on the likelihood of anthropogenic conversion and the non-randomness of the allocation of protected areas throughout the territory (spatial correlation effect) and the control of statistical bias caused by the influence of auto-correlation and leakage effect. Using a sample design that is not based on ways to control these biases may result in outcomes that underestimate or overestimate the effectiveness of those units. The matching method accounted for a bias reduction in 94–99% of the estimation of the average effect of protected areas on anthropogenic conversion and allowed us to obtain results with a reduced influence of the auto-correlation and leakage effects. Most protected areas had a positive influence on the maintenance of natural habitats, although wide variation in this effectiveness was dependent on the type, restriction, governmental sphere, size and age group of the unit