4 research outputs found
Synthesis and the Assessment of Adaptation Measures,
The fi nal stage of the CIRCE case-studies integrated assessment involved
identi fi cation and evaluation of the effectiveness of local and regional adaptation
options in collaboration with stakeholders, and in the context of wider national
adaptation policies and strategies. This stage provides a synthesis of both the casestudy
work and the wider CIRCE project since it draws on the case-study indicators for present and future periods together with wider CIRCE work on adaptation
options, particularly in the thematic areas of agriculture, forestry and ecosystems,
and Mediterranean communities. This synthesis and evaluation links impacts and
vulnerability with adaptation, and also bene fi ts strongly from the local stakeholder
workshops held towards the end of the project. Lessons learnt and key messages
from the CIRCE case studies are presented. While the objectives of the CIRCE case
studies have generally been achieved, a number of research gaps and needs remain
Introduction
The heterogeneous nature of the Mediterranean environment, combined
with a wide diversity of socio-economic and cultural identities, make this region
particularly amenable to integrated research on climate change impacts, vulnerabilities,
and adaptive response. Eleven case-study locations have been strategically
selected to represent three generic Mediterranean environments (urban, rural and
coastal). While each case study location comprises a unique and complex set of
climate-related issues, the range and scope of the case studies allows identification of common lessons and messages for the wider Mediterranean region. The aim is to
perform an integrated assessment of climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation
at a regional to local scale. A risk-based \u2018bottom up\u2019 approach (based on regional
stakeholder dialogue) is combined with a \u2018top down\u2019 case-study indicator assessment
focused on a common conceptual and methodological framework
Integration of the Climate Impact Assessments with Future Projections ,in (A.Navarra and L.Tubiana eds), Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterran
Climate projections are essential in order to extend the case-study impacts
and vulnerability assessments to encompass future climate change. Thus climatemodel
based indicators for the future (to 2050 and for the A1B emissions scenario)
are presented for the climate and atmosphere theme (including indices of temperature
and precipitation extreme events), together with biogeophysical and socioeconomic
indicators encompassing the other case-study themes. For the latter, the speci fi c
examples presented here include peri-urban fi res, air pollution, human health risks,
energy demand, alien marine species and tourism (attractiveness and socio-economic
consequences). The primary source of information about future climate is the set
of global and regional model simulations performed as part of CIRCE. These
have the main novel characteristic of incorporating a realistic representation of the
Mediterranean Sea including coupling between sea and atmosphere. These projections
are inevitably subject to uncertainties relating to unpredictability, model structural uncertainty and value uncertainty. These uncertainties are addressed by taking a
multi-model approach, but problems remain, for example, due to a systematic cold
bias in the CIRCE models. In the context of the case-study integrated assessments,
there are also uncertainties \u2018downstream\u2019 of climate modeling and the construction
of climate change projections \u2013 largely relating to the modeling of impacts. In addition,
there are uncertainties associated with all socio-economic projections used in the
case studies \u2013 such as population projections. Thus there are uncertainties inherent
to all stages of the integrated assessments and it is important to consider all these
aspects in the context of adaptation decision making
Climate Impact Assessments
This chapter highlights key climate impacts, hazards and vulnerabilities
and associated indicators that have been used to assess current (recent) climate impacts
at each of the case-study sites. The aim is to illustrate some of the wide range of information
available from individual case studies and highlight common themes that are
evident across multiple case-study locations. This is used to demonstrate linkages and
sensitivities between the speci fi c climate impacts of relevance for each case-study
type (urban, rural and coastal) and the key climate hazards and biogeophysical and
social vulnerabilities representing the underlying drivers and site conditions. For some impacts, there are clear, direct links with climate events, such as heat stress and
fl ooding, while for others, such as energy supply and demand, the causal relationships
are more indirect, via a cascade of climate, social and economic in fl uences. Water
availability and extreme temperatures are common drivers of current climate impacts
across all case studies, including, for example, freshwater supply and heat stress for
urban populations; irrigation capacity and growing season length for agricultural
regions; and saltwater intrusion of aquifers and tourist visitor numbers at coastal
locations. At some individual case-study locations, speci fi c impacts, hazards and/
or vulnerabilities are observed, such as peri-urban fires in Greater Athens, infrastructure
vulnerability to coastal fl ooding in Alexandria, groundwater levels in Tel Hadya
and vector-borne diseases in the Gulf of Oran. Throughout this chapter, evidence of
current climate impacts, hazards and vulnerabilities from each of the case studies
is detailed and assessed relative to other case studies. This provides a foundation
for considering the wider perspective of the Mediterranean region as a whole, and for
providing a context from which to assess consequences of future climate projections
and consider suitable adaptation options