A preliminary reconstruction of the orbit of the Chelyabinsk Meteoroid

In February 15 2013 a medium-sized meteoroid impacted the atmosphere in the region of Chelyabinsk, Russia. After its entrance to the atmosphere and after travel by several hun- dred of kilometers the body exploded in a powerful event responsible for physical damages and injured people spread over a region enclosing several large cities. We present in this letter the results of a preliminary reconstruction of the orbit of the Chelyabinsk meteoroid. Using evidence gathered by one camera at the Revolution Square in the city of Chelyabinsk and other videos recorded by witnesses in the close city of Korkino, we calculate the trajectory of the body in the atmosphere and use it to reconstruct the orbit in space of the meteoroid previous to the violent encounter with our planet. In order to account for the uncertainties implicit in the determination of the trajectory of the body in the atmosphere, we use Monte Carlo methods to calculate the most probable orbital parameters. We use this result to classify the meteoroid among the near Earth asteroid families finding that the parent body belonged to the Apollo asteroids. Although semimajor axis and inclination of the preliminary orbit computed by us are uncertain, the rest of orbital elements are well constrained in this preliminary reconstruction.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures. Further details, updates, images, plots and videos available at: http://astronomia.udea.edu.co/chelyabinsk-meteoroi

Revisiting the dynamics of planets in binaries: evolutionary timescales and the effect of early stellar evolution

The discovery of planets in binaries is one the most interesting outcomes of planetary research. With the growing number of discoveries has also grown the interest on describing their formation, long-term evolution and potential habitability. In this work we revisit the dynamics of planets in S-type binary systems. For that purpose we develop explicit formulas for the secularized octupolar Hamiltonian, coupled with general relativistic corrections and non-conservative interactions. We implemented those formulas in an open-source package \texttt{SecDev3B}, that can be used to reproduce our results or test improved versions of the models. In order to test it, we study the long-term dynamical evolution of S-type binary planets during the pre-main-sequence phase of stellar evolution. During that phase, stellar radius significantly changes in timescales similar to secular timescales. We hypothesize that when close-encounters between the planet and its host star happens (e.g. via Lidov-Kozai effect), particularities in the secular formalism plus changes in stellar radius may alter significantly the dynamical evolution. We study the well-known binary planet HD 80606b and found that an octupolar expansion of the conservative Hamiltonian is required to properly predict its dynamical evolution. We also apply the dynamical model, enriched with results coming from stellar evolutionary models, to demonstrate that in S-type systems around low-mass stars, with relative high inclinations (\itot\ge 60^\circ), moderate eccentricities ($0.2\le e\le 0.4$) and planets located around 1 AU, the evolution of stellar radius during the first few hundreds of Myr, alters significantly the timescales of dynamical evolution.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, Submitted to MNRA

The orbit of the Chelyabinsk event impactor as reconstructed from amateur and public footage

A ballistic reconstruction of a meteoroid orbit can be made if enough information is available about its trajectory inside the atmosphere. A few methods have been devised in the past and used in several cases to trace back the origin of small impactors. On February 15, 2013, a medium-sized meteoroid hit the atmosphere in the Chelyabinsk region of Russia, causing damage in several large cities. The incident, the largest registered since the Tunguska event, was witnessed by many thousands and recorded by hundreds of amateur and public video recording systems. The amount and quality of the information gathered by those systems is sufficient to attempt a reconstruction of the trajectory of the impactor body in the atmosphere, and from this the orbit of the body with respect to the Sun. Using amateur and public footage taken in four different places close to the event, we have determined precisely the properties of the entrance trajectory and the orbit of the Chelyabinsk event impactor. We found that the object entered the atmosphere at a velocity ranging from 16.0 to 17.4 km/s in a grazing trajectory, almost directly from the east, with an azimuth of velocity vector of 285$^o$, and with an elevation of 15.8$^o$ with respect to the local horizon. The orbit that best fits the observations has, at a 95% confidence level, a semi-major axis a = 1.26$\pm$0.05 AU, eccentricity e = 0.44$\pm$0.03, argument of perihelion $\omega$=95.5$^o\pm2^o$ and longitude of ascending node $\Omega$= 326.5$^o\pm0.3^o$. Using these properties the object can be classified as belonging to the Apollo family of asteroids. The absolute magnitude of the meteoroid was H= 25.8, well below the threshold for its detection and identification as a Potential Hazardous Asteroid (PHA). This result would imply that present efforts intended to detect and characterize PHAs are incomplete.Comment: Submitted to Earth and Planetary Science Letters (EPSL), 10 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables. Supplementary information available at: http://astronomia.udea.edu.co/chelyabinsk-meteoroi

Study of core collapse neutrino signals and constraints on neutrino masses from a future Galactic Supernova

We study the sensitivity to neutrino masses of a Galactic supernova neutrino signal as could be measured with the detectors presently in operation and with future large volume water \v{C}erencov and scintillator detectors. The analysis uses the full statistics of neutrino events. The method proposed uses the principles of Bayesian inference reasoning and has shown a remarkably independence of astrophysical assumptions. We show that, after accounting for the uncertainties in the detailed astrophysical description of the neutrino signal and taking into account the effects of neutrino oscillations in the supernova mantle, detectors presently in operation can have enough sensitivity to reveal a neutrino mass (or to set upper limits) at the level of 1 eV. This is sensibly better than present results from tritium $\beta$-decay experiments, competitive with the most conservative limits from neutrinoless double $\beta$-decay and less precise but remarkably less dependent from prior assumptions than cosmological measurements. Future megaton water \v{C}erencov detectors and large volume scintillator detectors will allow for about a factor of two improvement in the sensitivity; however, they will not be competitive with the next generation of tritium $\beta$-decay and neutrinoless double $\beta$-decay experiments. Using the codes developed to perform the generation of synthetic supernova signals and their analysis we created a computer package, SUNG (SUpernova Neutrino Generation tool, http://urania.udea.edu.co/sungweb), aimed to offer a general purpose solution to perform calculations in supernova neutrino studies.Comment: 139 pp., Dissertation, Instituto de Fisica, Universidad de Antioqui

Correlation between tides and seismicity in Northwestern South America: the case of Colombia

We present the first systematic exploration of earth tides-seismicity correlation in northwestern South America, with a special emphasis in Colombia. For this purpose, we use a dataset of ~167,000 earthquakes, gathered by the Colombian Seismological Network between 1993 and 2017. Most of the events are intermediate-depth earthquakes from the Bucaramanga seismic nest and the Cauca seismic cluster. For this purpose, we implemented a novel approach for the calculation of tidal phases that considers the relative positions of the Earth-Moon-Sun system at the time of the events. After applying the standard Schuster test to the whole dataset and to several earthquake samples (classified by time, location, magnitude and depth), we found strong correlation anomalies with the diurnal and monthly components of the tide (global log(p) values around -7.0 for the diurnal constituent and -12.1 for the monthly constituent), especially for the intermediate depth events. These anomalies suggest that around 16% of the deep earthquakes in Colombia may be triggered by tides, especially when the monthly phase is between 350$^\circ$-10$^\circ$. We attribute our positive results, which favor the tidal-triggering hypothesis, in contrast to previous negative ones to: 1) the size of our dataset, and 2) the method we used to calculate tidal phases. Anyone willing to reproduce our results or to apply our methodology to custom datasets can use the public information system tQuakes that we developed for this work.Comment: 49 pages, 19 figures. Accepter for publication in Journal of South American Earth Sciences. tQuakes information System: http://seap-udea.org/tQuake

Constraining the Radiation and Plasma Environment of the Kepler Circumbinary Habitable Zone Planets

The discovery of many planets using the Kepler telescope includes ten planets orbiting eight binary stars. Three binaries, Kepler-16, Kepler-47, and Kepler-453, have at least one planet in the circumbinary habitable-zone (BHZ). We constrain the level of high-energy radiation and the plasma environment in the BHZ of these systems. With this aim, BHZ limits in these Kepler binaries are calculated as a function of time, and the habitability lifetimes are estimated for hypothetical terrestrial planets and/or moons within the BHZ. With the time-dependent BHZ limits established, a self-consistent model is developed describing the evolution of stellar activity and radiation properties as proxies for stellar aggression toward planetary atmospheres. Modeling binary stellar rotation evolution, including the effect of tidal interaction between stars in binaries is key to establishing the environment around these systems. We find that Kepler-16 and its binary analogs provide a plasma environment favorable for the survival of atmospheres of putative Mars-sized planets and exomoons. Tides have modified the rotation of the stars in Kepler-47 making its radiation environment less harsh in comparison to the solar system. This is a good example of the mechanism first proposed by Mason et al. Kepler-453 has an environment similar to that of the solar system with slightly better than Earth radiation conditions at the inner edge of the BHZ. These results can be reproduced and even reparametrized as stellar evolution and binary tidal models progress, using our online tool http://bhmcalc.net.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ. It includes an improved model for BHZ calculation and comparisons among different methods. For reproducing these results and performing new ones please refer to the Binary Habitability Calculator in http://bhmcalc.ne

The effect of close-in giant planets' evolution on tidal-induced migration of exomoons

Hypothetical exomoons around close-in giant planets may migrate inwards and/or outwards in virtue of the interplay of the star, planet and moon tidal interactions. These processes could be responsible for the disruption of lunar systems, the collision of moons with planets or could provide a mechanism for the formation of exorings. Several models have been developed to determine the fate of exomoons when subject to the tidal effects of their host planet. None of them have taken into account the key role that planetary evolution could play in this process. In this paper we put together numerical models of exomoon tidal-induced orbital evolution, results of planetary evolution and interior structure models, to study the final fate of exomoons around evolving close-in gas giants. We have found that planetary evolution significantly affects not only the time-scale of exomoon migration but also its final fate. Thus, if any change in planetary radius, internal mass distribution and rotation occurs in time-scales lower or comparable to orbital evolution, exomoon may only migrate outwards and prevent tidal disruption or a collision with the planet. If exomoons are discovered in the future around close-in giant planets, our results may contribute to constraint planetary evolution and internal structure models.Comment: Published in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. 9 pages, 9 figure

Evolution of magnetic protection in potentially habitable terrestrial planets

We present a model for the evolution of the magnetic properties of habitable terrestrial planets and their effects on the protection of planetary atmosphere against the erosive action of stellar wind. Using up-to-date thermal evolution models and dynamo scaling laws we predict the evolution of the planetary dipole moment as a function of planetary mass and rotation rate. Combining these results with models for the evolution of the stellar wind, stellar XUV fluxes and planetary exosphere characteristics, we determine the properties of the magnetosphere and the exobase radius in order to estimate the level of atmospheric mass losses. We use this model to evaluate the magnetic protection of the potentially habitable super-Earths GJ 667Cc, Gl 581d and HD 85512b. We confirm that Earth-like planets, even under the highest attainable magnetic field strengths, will lose a significant fraction of their atmospheric volatiles if they are tidally locked in the habitable zone of dM stars, or even if having N/O-rich atmospheres they are in habitable zones closer than $\sim$ 0.8 AU. Similar mass-dependent inner limits have been found for super-Earths $M_p\gtrsim 3 M_\oplus$ that in any case seem to have better chances of preserving their atmospheres even if they are tidally locked. We predict that the atmosphere of GJ 667Cc has probably already been obliterated and it is presently uninhabitable. On the other hand, our model predicts that the atmospheres of Gl 581d and HD 85512b would be well protected by intrinsic magnetic fields, even under the worst expected conditions of stellar aggression. (abrigded abstract).Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures; submitted to ApJ; comments are welcom

Towards a theoretical determination of the geographical probability distribution of meteoroid impacts on Earth

Tunguska and Chelyabinsk impact events occurred inside a geographical area of only 3.4\% of the Earth's surface. Although two events hardly constitute a statistically significant demonstration of a geographical pattern of impacts, their spatial coincidence is at least tantalizing. To understand if this concurrence reflects an underlying geographical and/or temporal pattern, we must aim at predicting the spatio-temporal distribution of meteoroid impacts on Earth. For this purpose we designed, implemented and tested a novel numerical technique, the "Gravitational Ray Tracing" (GRT) designed to compute the relative impact probability (RIP) on the surface of any planet. GRT is inspired by the so-called ray-casting techniques used to render realistic images of complex 3D scenes. In this paper we describe the method and the results of testing it at the time of large impact events. Our findings suggest a non-trivial pattern of impact probabilities at any given time on Earth. Locations at $60-90\deg$ from the apex are more prone to impacts, especially at midnight. Counterintuitively, sites close to apex direction have the lowest RIP, while in the antapex RIP are slightly larger than average. We present here preliminary maps of RIP at the time of Tunguska and Chelyabinsk events and found no evidence of a spatial or temporal pattern, suggesting that their coincidence was fortuitous. We apply the GRT method to compute theoretical RIP at the location and time of 394 large fireballs. Although the predicted spatio-temporal impact distribution matches marginally the observed events, we successfully predict their impact speed distribution.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

A general method for assessing the origin of interstellar small bodies: the case of 1I/2017 U1 ('Oumuamua)

With the advent of more and deeper sky surveys, the discovery of interstellar small objects entering into the Solar System has been finally possible. In October 19, 2017, using observations of the Pan-STARRS survey, a fast moving object, now officially named 1I/2017 U1 ('Oumuamua), was discovered in a heliocentric unbound trajectory suggesting an interstellar origin. Assessing the provenance of interstellar small objects is key for understanding their distribution, spatial density and the processes responsible for their ejection from planetary systems. However, their peculiar trajectories place a limit on the number of observations available to determine a precise orbit. As a result, when its position is propagated $\sim 10^5-10^6$ years backward in time, small errors in orbital elements become large uncertainties in position in the interstellar space. In this paper we present a general method for assigning probabilities to nearby stars of being the parent system of an observed interstellar object. We describe the method in detail and apply it for assessing the origin of 'Oumuamua. A preliminary list of potential progenitors and their corresponding probabilities is provided. In the future, when further information about the object and/or the nearby stars be refined, the probabilities computed with our method can be updated. We provide all the data and codes we developed for this purpose in the form of an open source {\tt C/C++/Python package}, {\bf\tt iWander} which is publicly available at http://github.com/seap-udea/iWander.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures. Accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal. iWander package available at http://github.com/seap-udea/iWande