Equity Research - Meliá Hotels International

Mestrado em FinançasO objetivo deste projeto é estimar o valor intriseco das ações do Grupo Meliá, utilizando para o isso o método de avaliação mais adequado às características da firma estudada, através de uma análise detalhada da empresa, do Grupo e do seu ambiente externo. Esta avaliação foi baseada com no método Free Cash Flow to the Firm que, de acordo com a revisão de literatura, é a melhor metodologia para a avaliar a empresa. Nesta pesquisa, o Grupo Meliá Hotels International, é avaliado em €2 878M, o que conduz a um price tarfe de €12,53 por ação. Como tal, o preço teórico está acima do preço de mercado, então, é dada uma recomendação de compra para estas ações.The purporse of this project is to estimate the intrinsic value of the Meliá's shares using the most adequated valuation approaches to the features of the studied firm and trough a detailed analysis of the firm, the Group and its external environment. This valuation was based on the Free Cash Flow to the Firm method, which according to the Literature Review is the best methodology to evaluate the company. In this research, Melia Hotels International is valued at €2 878M, which leads to a target share price of €12,53. Therefore, the theoretical price is above the quoted share price. Thus, a buy recommendation is given for this company shares

Quantification of reachable attractors in asynchronous discrete dynamics

Motivation: Models of discrete concurrent systems often lead to huge and complex state transition graphs that represent their dynamics. This makes difficult to analyse dynamical properties. In particular, for logical models of biological regulatory networks, it is of real interest to study attractors and their reachability from specific initial conditions, i.e. to assess the potential asymptotical behaviours of the system. Beyond the identification of the reachable attractors, we propose to quantify this reachability. Results: Relying on the structure of the state transition graph, we estimate the probability of each attractor reachable from a given initial condition or from a portion of the state space. First, we present a quasi-exact solution with an original algorithm called Firefront, based on the exhaustive exploration of the reachable state space. Then, we introduce an adapted version of Monte Carlo simulation algorithm, termed Avatar, better suited to larger models. Firefront and Avatar methods are validated and compared to other related approaches, using as test cases logical models of synthetic and biological networks. Availability: Both algorithms are implemented as Perl scripts that can be freely downloaded from http://compbio.igc.gulbenkian.pt/nmd/node/59 along with Supplementary Material.Comment: 19 pages, 2 figures, 2 algorithms and 2 table

DOES STRATEGIC PLANNING PAY?

Ainda existe muita controvérsia sobre o impacto do planejamento estratégico no desempenho das empresas. Este artigo investigou a relação entre os dois construtos em uma amostra de bancos operando no Brasil. Três dimensões de planejamento estratégico – importância, intensidade e sistematização – foram selecionadas e seu impacto sobre quatro medidas de desempenho foi avaliado. Efeitos diretos e mediados foram testados. Os resultados foram estatisticamente não significativos, mas tal não deve ser interpretado imediatamente como significando que planejamento não afeta o desempenho.  O baixo poder do teste (em função do tamanho limitado da amostra), associado ao fato de que muitos bancos auto-reportaram níveis altos em diversas variáveis de planejamento (o que levou a pouca variação nas variáveis explicativas) sugere que os resultados devem ser interpretados com cautela

Challenging the Uppsala Internationalization Model: a Contingent Approach to the Internationalization of Services

Some authors have questioned whether the well-known Uppsala internationalization model would be generalizable to services. We take one of the model’s assumptions – that firms will follow a gradually increasing resource commitment path in each country – and challenge whether it would hold up under specific service characteristics or particular combinations of environmental variables and service characteristics. We review the literature in search of more appropriate dimensions for the classification of services that would allow for the test of the Uppsala model’s assumption. Based on purely conceptual reasoning, supported by previous empirical studies, we propose some hypotheses about how service firms would be expected to behave – in terms of their choice of foreign entry mode - under certain circumstances and what the performance implications would be expected to be. These hypotheses are contrary to the Uppsala model’s predictions. This paper is solelyconceptual, so the key constructs (environment and service-specific variables) would still require operationalization before the hypotheses can be empirically tested

The Triple Code Model as a theoretical explanation of the effects of active mental practice in motor skills performance

This project studied the Triple Code Model by Ahsen and how it can be used as a theoretical framework in the investigation of the effects of mental practice in motor skills performance.The work is divided into four parts. The first part is a review of various theoretical models that have been used in explaining why mental practice can promote performance.The second part is another review but of the areas where mental practice has been used. It pays particular attention to three areas: training, rehabilitation from medical surgery and execution of motor skills in games.The third, is a collection of experimental work, using the framework of the Triple Code Model with active imagery, and it is divided into three sections. The first section looks at how table tennis strokes can become more consistent. The second section, at how rehabilitation and gait patterns can be affected via the Triple Code Model and active imagery interventions after remedial practice. The third section presents a new type of imagery modality instrument using high imagery keywords as stimuli. This questionnaire was multi-cultural validated in two countries, England and Portugal.The fourth part is a summary of what was found throughout the project with recommendations for further work.The general conclusion of the project was that the Triple Code Model with active imagery is a promising framework in the learning or correction of motor skills performance, but that the imagery modalities of people should be identified before any mental practice exercise

Coordenando pontos de vista: um estudo brasileiro em crianças pré-operatórias

[Resumo] Oitenta crianças entre 4 e 5 anos foram investigadas para se verificar se sao capazes de selecionar fotos que mostram o que é visto pelo examinador. O instrumento foi urna maquete de base triangular onde estavam tres bonecas diferentes e também fotografias referentes, respectivamente, avisao da criança, ado examinador e a urna terceira visao. Quarenta crianças foram submetidas a condição A que envolvia somente a sele9ao de fotos. As outras quarenta, submetidas acondição B, passaram por perguntas preliminares sobre o ponto de vista próprio, do outro e sobre as fotos. Ao final desta etapa as crianças selecionaram as fotografias como na condição A. Os resultados mostraram diferença altamente significante entre as duas condições na seleção de fotos correspondentes avisao do examinador. Na condição A, quatorze crianças acertaram, enquanto na condição B foram trinta (X2=11,36 p< 0,001). A diferen9a também foi altamente significante entre o desempenho nas perguntas preliminares sobre o que era visto pelo examinador na condição B, 35 acertos, e a seleção de fotos na condição A, 14 acertos (X2= 21,06 p< 0,001). Concluiu-se que se a escolha é precedida de perguntas o desempenho melhora, pois as perguntas propiciam o desenvolvimento de estratégias que facilitam a taref