Car Taxes and CO2 emissions in EU

The fuel efficiency of passenger cars is often emphasised as one of the most significant areas of action in terms of limiting the transport sector’s CO2 emission levels. This could be achieved either on the supply side through the technological development of cars, or through demand-side measures such as influencing first time buyers’ choice of car. The aim of this article is to present a model for analysis of the demand side, more specifically the relation between the CO2 emissions from new cars and the car taxation related to new car purchases in EU. The purpose of the model is twofold. Firstly, it should be used to analyse the CO2 efficiency of the car taxation in each member state. Secondly, results from model calculations should be used to illustrate what are the possibilities for the individual member states to reduce their CO2 emissions from new cars. It should be noted that this paper mainly covers methodological aspects and results, since no CO2 reduction results are available at this stage. The model is based on a revised and enhanced version of the Danish Car Choice model from 1997 combined with car characteristics, socio-economic data and car taxation data from the EU member states

PETRA - The COHORT model: PETRA working paper no. 5

This paper describes the COHORT model for licence holdings which forms part of the PETRA model complex. Licence holding at household level is described in the LICENCE model , based on cross-section data.However, cross-section analysis is not capable of accounting for all factors affecting future licence holding rates. In particular, long term effects arising from the difference in behaviour between generations cannot be seen on this basis. Therefore, the COHORT model is used to modify the forecasts from the LICENCE model in order to incorporate these effects. A predominant feature of licence holding is the slow market penetration that has occurred in the past and which is still taking place. The generation born in 1930 has, at all ages, had a significantly lower propensity to acquire a licence than later generations. For each age level, the propensity to acquire a licence, the entry rate, has been increasing with the coming of new generations. As the entry rates increase so do the licence holding rates. Today, the population consists of generations having had lower entry rates during their life than new generations have now. Thus, the licence holding rate today is lower than it will be when later genera- tions with higher entry rates replace the previous generations. It takes a lifetime for such effects to penetrate fully. For men, penetration is close to completion with almost 90% of adult men having a licence and a saturation level of about 98%. from 90% to 98% means that the prediction of future licence holding rates can be rather exact. Women lag somewhat behind. Today, licence holding rates are high for younger women and low for old women, resulting in an average licence holding rate of approximately 61% for women. Consequently, licence holding is going to increase in the future as the generations change, independ- ently of other factors. This has implications for the prediction of future car ownership and transport demand

Fiscal measures to Reduce CO2 emissions from new passenger cars

The fuel efficiency of passenger cars is often emphasised as one of the most significant areas of action in terms of limiting the transport sector’s CO2 emission levels. This could be achieved either on the supply side through the technological development of cars, or through demand-side measures such as influencing first time buyers’ choice of car. The aim of this article is to present a model for analysis of the demand side, more specifically the relation between the CO2 emissions from new cars and the car taxation related to new car purchases in EU. The purpose of the model is twofold. Firstly, it should be used to analyse the CO2 efficiency of the car taxation in each member state. Secondly, results from model calculations should be used to illustrate what are the possibilities for the individual member states to reduce their CO2 emissions from new cars. The major conclusions from the study are: It is essential to apply a tax scheme, which is directly or indirectly CO2 related in order to provide for significant reductions in the average CO2 emissions from new cars. It is essential to differentiate the taxes in such a way that taxes for very energy effective cars are significantly lower than taxes for cars with poor energy efficiency. Fuel tax increases provide only very small reductions of the average CO2 emissions of new cars compared to vehicle taxes. The model is based on a revised and enhanced version of the Danish Car Choice model from 1997 combined with car characteristics, socio-economic data and car taxation data from the EU member states

Uobserverede karakteristikas effekt på priselasticiteten - en reestimation af bilvalgsmodellen for Danmark

Bilvalgsmodellen bygger i sin tidligere form alene på data for ét års bilsalg (1997), idet sådanne data var nye på daværende tidspunkt. Imidlertid foreligger der nu data for flere års bilsalg. En reestimation af modellen på flere års data har forbedret modellen væsentligt. I dette projekt er bilvalgsmodellen blevet reestimeret og opdateret med de nye data. Modellen vil herefter blive integreret i en samlet model for afgifternes effekt på de samlede CO2 emissioner fra hele bilparken

CO2 emissioner fra personbiler og økonomiske styringsmidler: En nordisk sammenligning

Emissionerne fra transportsektoren er stadig betydelige i alle de nordiske lande. Stramningen af emissionsmål frem mod 2030 betyder, at der vil være behov for nye tiltag. Derfor er der behov for en tværgående analyse af udviklingen i personbilernes CO2-emissioner set i forhold til den udvikling, der har været i de økonomiske virkemidler i perioden 2011 til 2015.De nordiske lande har hver især implementeret forskellige tiltag gennem de seneste år til fremme af energivenlig transport og personbiler, men hvordan har effekterne af disse tiltag været. Pga. af de mange ligheder i de nordiske lander giver det god mening, at sammenligne særligt disse lande mhp. at finde inspiration til videre udvikling af CO2 emissionerne. Men der er også inspiration at hente internationalt – særligt for at få overblik over effekten af forskellige økonomiske styringsmidler.Nordisk Ministerråd igangsatte derfor i foråret 2016 en undersøgelse af status for CO2 udviklingen i de nordiske lande og anvendelsen af styringsmidler. Paperet sammenfatter de væsentligste resultater fra projektet med fokus på bl.a. udviklingen i CO2 emissionerne, hvordan er beskatningen af personbiler i de nordiske lande, hvilke erfaringer findes internationalt med beskatning af personbiler og hvor mangler vi stadig viden om, hvordan vi kan regulere og hvad effekterne af reguleringen er

CO2 emissions and economic incentives : Recent developments in CO2 emissions from passenger cars in the Nordic countries and potential economic incentives to regulate them

The CO₂ emissions from passenger cars is declining. Some changes are due to ever improved technology provided by car manufacturers and others induced by political regulation. The report investigates the recent changes in CO₂ intensity in the car fleets in the Nordic countries. The trends in the car sales are presented and the impacts on overall CO₂ intensity are outlined. All Nordic countries have in the past ten years changed the national regulation of passenger cars through different economic incentives and various schemes making low emissions vehicles more favourable. The report describes these changes and complement with an overview of international empirical findings concerning the main tax instruments (purchase-, annual-, fuel tax and road user charges). The potential impact of these taxes are reviewed and recommendations for future uses of the various instruments are provided