A new relational method for smoothing and projecting age-specific fertility rates: TOPALS

Age-specific fertility rates can be smoothed using parametric models or splines. Alternatively a relational model can be used which relates the age profile to be fitted or projected to a standard age schedule. This paper introduces TOPALS (tool for projecting age patterns using linear splines), a new relational method that is less dependent on the choice of the standard age schedule than previous methods. TOPALS models the relationship between the age-specific fertility rates to be fitted and the standard age schedule by a linear spline. This paper uses TOPALS for smoothing fertility age profiles for 30 European countries. The use of TOPALS to create scenarios of the future level and age pattern of fertility is illustrated by applying the method to project future fertility rates for six European countries.age-specific fertility rates, Brass-model, European Union, model age schedules, population scenario, relational model, smoothing

Putting the pieces of the puzzle together: Age and sex-specific estimates of migration amongst countries in the EU/EFTA, 2002-2007

Because of inconsistencies in reported flows and large amounts of missing data, our knowledge of international migration patterns in Europe is limited. Methods for overcoming data obstacles and harmonising international migration data, however, are improving. In this paper, we provide a methodology for integrating various pieces of incomplete information together, including a partial set of harmonised migration flows, to estimate a complete set of migration flows by origin, destination, age and sex for the 31 countries in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2007. The results represent a synthetic data base that can be used to inform population projections, policy decisions and migration theory.Du fait d’incohérences dans l’enregistrement des flux migratoires et du grand nombre de données manquantes, notre connaissance des schémas de migrations internationales en Europe reste limitée. Cependant, les méthodes disponibles pour surmonter les obstacles liés aux données et pour harmoniser les données sur la migration internationale s’améliorent. Dans cet article, nous proposons une méthode pour combiner les différents éléments de ces informations incomplètes, incluant un ensemble partiel de données harmonisées sur les flux migratoires, afin d’estimer une série complète de flux migratoires par pays d’origine, pays de destination, âge et sexe pour les 31 pays de l’Union Européenne et de l’Association Européenne de Libre Echange de 2002 à 2007. Les résultats constituent une base de données synthétique pouvant servir de base pour les projections de population, les décisions politiques et les théories relatives à la migration

Population Scenarios and Policy Implications for Southern Mediterranean Countries, 2010-2050. MEDPRO Policy Paper No. 5, March 2013

Four population scenarios were derived that describe indicators of demographic behaviour for people living in different future political-economic contexts. This policy paper explores future trends in i) population growth at regional and national levels, ii) working age populations, in view of demographic dividend potential, and iii) elderly populations, in view of the financial burden they place on economies. Results show that different scenarios do not have large effects on population growth, at least up to 2030. This is due to the in-built ‘population momentum’ effect in the relatively young age-structures of most southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs). In the short term, up to 2030, and depending on which economic-political scenario unfolds, SEMCs are expected to grow from 280 million people to a figure of between 362 and 349 million people. Thus, in a period of about 20 years SEMCs are expected to grow by between 69 and 83 million people. In the same period, EU27 populations will grow by 21 million; only from about 500 to 521 million people. Between 2030 and 2050, additional population growth is foreseen in SEMCs, between 48 and 62 million people, while EU27 populations are expected to grow by 4 million only. SEMCs vary widely regarding demographic transition profiles so that demographic dividend potentials also vary. Old-age dependency ratios – the share of elderly people in relation to the working age population – are still low compared to EU27 ratios, but will increase after 2035. Should SEMCs’ economies remain politically, economically and environmentally precarious in the coming decades, their relatively low dependency ratios may impose an even higher social and financial burden on economies than the EU countries’ high dependency ratios impose on their economies

A new parametric model to assess delay and compression of mortality

Background A decrease in mortality across all ages causes a shift of the age pattern of mortality, or mortality delay, while differences in the rate of decrease across ages cause a change in the shape of the age-at-death distribution, mortality compression or expansion. Evidence exists for both compression and delay of mortality. Existing parametric models to describe the full age pattern of mortality are not able to capture mortality delay versus mortality compression. More recent models that assess delay versus compression mostly focused on the adult or old ages alone and did not distinguish mortality compression below and above the modal age at death, although they represent different mechanisms. Methods This paper presents a new parametric model that describes the full age pattern of mortality and assesses compression – at different stages of life – and delay of mortality: the CoDe model. The model includes 10 parameters, of which five are constant over time. The five time-varying parameters reflect delay of mortality and compression of mortality in infancy, adolescence, young adulthood, late adulthood, and old age. The model describes infant and background mortality by two simple functions, uses a mixed logistic model with different slopes in adult, middle, and old age, and includes the modal age at death as a parameter to account for the delay in mortality. Results Applying the CoDe model to age-specific probabilities of death for Japanese, French, American, and Danish men and women between 1950 and 2010 showed a very good fit of the full age pattern of mortality. Delay of mortality explained about two-thirds of the increase in life expectancy at birth, whereas compression of mortality due to mortality declines in young age explained about one-third. No strong compression of mortality in late adulthood age was observed. Mortality compression in old age has had a small negative impact on life expectancy. Conclusions The CoDe model proved a valid instrument for describing the full age pattern of mortality and for disentangling the effects of mortality delay and compression – at different stages of life – on the increase in life expectancy

The Netherlands: Childbearing within the context of a "Poldermodel" society

The Netherlands has seen a considerable decline of the period total fertility rate and delayed childbearing, just like all other European countries. The drop in fertility, however, has not been as sharp as in many other regions of Europe. The period total fertility rate in the Netherlands has stabilized since the late 1970s at around 1.6 children per woman, and it has even risen slightly since 1995. In addition, although the Netherlands has one of the oldest first-time mothers, completed fertility is still rather high compared to other European countries, suggesting a strong “catching up†of births by women in their thirties. This chapter provides a comprehensive overview of the main driving forces behind specific fertility trends in the Netherlands. Among other factors, it focuses on changing patterns of home leaving and union formation, declining partnership stability, and the growing acceptability and use of contraception. The chapter also looks at prolonged education, rising labor-force participation of women, economic uncertainties, the growing migrant population, and family policies. Data allowing, and to the extent possible, we examine the effects of these factors on decision-making about parenthood and the timing of childbearing.childbearing, Europe, fertility, Netherlands

Population Scenarios for South Mediterranean Countries 2010-2050. MEDPRO Report No. 2, August 2012

The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) and its follow-up, the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), were created in 2004 and 2008 to strengthen the prosperity, stability and security of all countries and avoid the emergence of new dividing lines between the EU and 16 neighbouring countries, including south Mediterranean countries (SMCs). Demographic factors in both EU and neighbouring countries will influence this goal. This report describes four population growth scenarios for SMCs, obtained using the MEDPRO economic-political development framework on how indicators of fertility, mortality and international migration might change if people in SMCs were to live in different macroeconomic and political contexts. Qualitative scenarios were then operationalized leading to four different quantitative scenarios using assumptions about possible trends in indicators of fertility, mortality and international migration. The paper concludes by reflecting on the results in light of recent political developments in the region

Unequally ageing regions of Europe:Exploring the role of urbanization

Since young adults tend to move from rural to urban regions, whereas older adults move from urban to rural regions, we may expect to see increasing differences in population ageing across urban and rural regions. This paper examines whether trends in population ageing across urban and rural NUTS-2 regions of the EU-27 have diverged over the period 2003–13. We use the methodological approach of convergence analysis, quite recently brought to demography from the field of economic research. Unlike classical beta and sigma approaches to convergence, we focus not on any single summary statistic of convergence, but rather analyse the whole cumulative distribution of regions. Such an approach helps to identify which specific group of regions is responsible for the major changes. Our results suggest that, despite expectations, there was no divergence in age structures between urban and rural regions; rather, divergence happened within each of the groups of regions

Economic Convergence In Ageing Europe

European regions experience accelerating ageing, but the process has substantial regional variation. This paper examines the effect of this variation on regional economic cohesion in Europe. We measure the effect of convergence or divergence in the share of the working age population on convergence or divergence in economies of NUTS 2 regions. The effect of convergence or divergence in ageing on economic convergence or divergence is quite substantial and, in some cases, is bigger than the effect of changes in productivity and labour force participation. Convergence of ageing leads to economic convergence only when the share of the working age population in rich regions exceeds that in poor regions and the former regions experience a substantial decline in the share of the working age population, or the latter regions experience an increase. During 2003–12, an inverse relationship between convergence in ageing and economic convergence was the rule rather than the exception

Wordt het record van de oudste Nederlander snel gebroken?

De oudste mens die in Nederland heeft geleefd was Hendrikje van Andel. Zij overleed in 2005 op 115-jarige leeftijd. Sindsdien heeft niemand in Nederland meer zo’n hoge leeftijd bereikt. De kans dat dit record zal worden gebroken neemt behoorlijk toe, en het zal hoogstwaarschijnlijk weer een vrouw zijn. Maar niet eerder dan in 2020 en waarschijnlijk pas een stuk later