EMU and the euro - the first 10 years. Challenges to the sustainability and price stability of the euro area - what does history tell us?

EMU and the euro will face a number of challenges in the future. Two such challenges are examined here:first, the endurance prospects for the euro, and second, the inflation performance of the euro area during the coming ten years. How will it respond to them? This report provides a set of tentative answers based on the history of monetary unions and of stabilization policies. This body of evidence is exploited as the prime basis for conjectures and forecasts presented.Monetary unions, EMU, ECB, the euro, monetary and fiscal policies, Jonung

The Swedish model for resolving the banking crisis of 1991 - 93. Seven reasons why it was successful.

This study presents the main features of the Swedish approach for resolving the banking crisis of 1991-93 by condensing them into seven policy lessons. The main features of the Swedish approach to the banking crisis of 1991-93 concern political unity, a government blanket guarantee, swift policy action,an adequate legal and institutional framework, full disclosure of information, a differentiated resolution policy, and the proper design of macroeconomic policies.The Swedish model for resolving the banking crisis of 1991-93, financial crisis, bank resolution, solvency crisis, banking crisis, moral hazard, Sweden, Jonung

Pioneering Price Level Targeting: The Swedish Experience 1931-1937

In September 1931, Sweden became the first country to make the stabilization of the domestic price level the official goal of its monetary policy, actually the only country that so far has adopted such an explicit price level target. Starting from the issues and concepts familiar from research and policy experience in the 1990s of inflation targeting - as contrasted to price level targeting - this paper examines the evolution of the Swedish price level targeting in the 1930s. We bring out a number of similarities and differences between price stabilization in the 1930s and in the 1990s.price level targeting;

The forecasting horizon of inflationary expectations and perceptions in the EU – Is it really 12 months?

We use survey based inflationary expectations to explore the forecasting horizons implicitly used by the respondents to questions about the expected rate of inflation during the coming 12 months. We examine the forecast errors, the mean error and the RMSEs, to study if the forecast horizon is truly 12 months as implied by the questionnaires. Our working hypothesis is that the forecast error has a U-shaped pattern, reaching its lowest value on the 12-month horizon. Our exploratory study reveals large differences across countries. For most countries, we get the expected U-shaped outcome for the forecast errors. The horizon implicitly used by respondents when answering the questions is not related to the explicit time horizon of the questionnaire. On average respondents use the same horizon when answering both questions.

The euro - what's in it for me? An economic analysis of the Swedish euro referendum of 2003

The Swedish referendum on the euro in September 2003 is an exceptional event for researchers of monetary unions and of European economic integration. Voters chose between maintaining the domestic currency, the krona, and replacing it with the euro, the single currency of the European Union. The referendum revealed significant dividing lines between Yes- and No-voters in areas such as income, education, sex, employment, geographical location and industrial structure. The aim of this study is to explain the large differences in voting behaviour. The empirical analysis of the referendum outcome is based on the traditional optimum currency area (OCA) approach, merged with an account of the distributional effects of Swedish membership of the euro area as they were perceived by the voters. The OCA approach builds upon the trade-off between reducing transaction costs by entering a monetary union, thus increasing trade and income, and obtaining macroeconomic insurance by having a domestic currency with a flexible exchange rate. This trade-off was perceived differently by voters depending on their evaluations of the costs or risks and the benefits or gains of adopting the euro versus keeping the krona, the domestic currency.Euro, krona, referendum, optimal currency theory, monetary union, Sweden, EU, Jonung, Vlachos

Is the euro advantageous? Does it foster European feelings? Europeans on the euro after five years

The introduction of the euro as a currency in physical existence in January 2002 was a major step in the European integration process. The purpose of this paper is to explore how a representative selection of 12 000 Europeans across all countries in the euro area view the effects of the euro five years after its introduction. The empirical analysis uses multinomial logistic regressions to explore the responses to two questions from the Flash Eurobarometer survey conducted in September 2006. The first question asked if the adoption of the euro was advantageous overall or not. The second one asked if using the euro had made you personally feel a little more European than before or not.Jonung, Conflitti, 978-92-79-08238-2, European integration, euro, EU, public attitudes, opinion polls, multinomial logistic regression.

The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment

This report estimates possible macroeconomic effects of a pandemic taking place in the EU in 2006, using a quarterly macroeconomic model. The macroeconomic costs of a pandemic, that is the cost in terms of production lost due to illness and death measured as reductions in GDP growth and/or declines in the level of GDP, are quantified in various pandemic scenarios. We focus on two sectors of the European economy that are expected to be particularly severely hit, tourism and trade. The results are compared with those obtained in similar studies. Our basic conclusion is that, although a pandemic would take a huge toll in human suffering, it would most likely not be a severe threat to the European macroeconomy.Pandemics, avian flu, Spanish influenza, macroeconomic model, Jonung, Roeger

Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts

The evidence from several euro-area countries demonstrates the existence of a forecast bias in the budgetary process, which negatively affects fiscal performance. To remedy this bias, we suggest that forecasting should be assigned to an authority independent from the ministry of finance and the government, with the task of producing unbiased projections of growth and other variables crucial for the budgetary process.independent forecasts, taxation, fiscal policy, forecast bias, forecasts, Jonung, Larch