The inverse conjunction fallacy

If people believe that some property is true of all members of a class such as sofas, then they should also believe that the same property is true of all members of a conjunctively defined subset of that class such as uncomfortable handmade sofas. A series of experiments demonstrated a failure to observe this constraint, leading to what is termed the inverse conjunction fallacy. Not only did people often express a belief in the more general statement but not in the more specific, but also when they accepted both beliefs, they were inclined to give greater confidence to the more general. It is argued that this effect underlies a number of other demonstrations of fallacious reasoning, particularly in category-based induction. Alternative accounts of the phenomenon are evaluated, and it is concluded that the effect is best interpreted in terms of intensional reasoning [Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983). Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review, 90, 293–315.]

Long time motion of NLS solitary waves in a confining potential

We study the motion of solitary-wave solutions of a family of focusing generalized nonlinear Schroedinger equations with a confining, slowly varying external potential, $V(x)$. A Lyapunov-Schmidt decomposition of the solution combined with energy estimates allows us to control the motion of the solitary wave over a long, but finite, time interval. We show that the center of mass of the solitary wave follows a trajectory close to that of a Newtonian point particle in the external potential $V(x)$ over a long time interval.Comment: 42 pages, 2 figure

Tropically convex constraint satisfaction

A semilinear relation S is max-closed if it is preserved by taking the componentwise maximum. The constraint satisfaction problem for max-closed semilinear constraints is at least as hard as determining the winner in Mean Payoff Games, a notorious problem of open computational complexity. Mean Payoff Games are known to be in the intersection of NP and co-NP, which is not known for max-closed semilinear constraints. Semilinear relations that are max-closed and additionally closed under translations have been called tropically convex in the literature. One of our main results is a new duality for open tropically convex relations, which puts the CSP for tropically convex semilinaer constraints in general into NP intersected co-NP. This extends the corresponding complexity result for scheduling under and-or precedence constraints, or equivalently the max-atoms problem. To this end, we present a characterization of max-closed semilinear relations in terms of syntactically restricted first-order logic, and another characterization in terms of a finite set of relations L that allow primitive positive definitions of all other relations in the class. We also present a subclass of max-closed constraints where the CSP is in P; this class generalizes the class of max-closed constraints over finite domains, and the feasibility problem for max-closed linear inequalities. Finally, we show that the class of max-closed semilinear constraints is maximal in the sense that as soon as a single relation that is not max-closed is added to L, the CSP becomes NP-hard.Comment: 29 pages, 2 figure

Long-Time Dynamics of Variable Coefficient mKdV Solitary Waves

We study the Korteweg-de Vries-type equation dt u=-dx(dx^2 u+f(u)-B(t,x)u), where B is a small and bounded, slowly varying function and f is a nonlinearity. Many variable coefficient KdV-type equations can be rescaled into this equation. We study the long time behaviour of solutions with initial conditions close to a stable, B=0 solitary wave. We prove that for long time intervals, such solutions have the form of the solitary wave, whose centre and scale evolve according to a certain dynamical law involving the function B(t,x), plus an H^1-small fluctuation.Comment: 19 page

Fator de bioconcentração de poluentes orgânicos de lodos em laranjas.

O objetivo desse trabalho foi estimar o fator de bioconcentração de 19 poluentes orgânicos de lodos em laranjas, para indicar quais os poluentes que devem ser monitorados em laranjas cultivadas em solos tratados com lodos de esgoto provenientes de estações de tratamento do Estado de São Paulo. Para tanto, foram assumidos um cultivo hipotético de laranja em um solo tratado com lodo e utilizado o modelo Fruit Tree Model (FTM) para estimar o fator de bioconcentração. Foram utilizados os coeficientes de partição octanol-água dos poluentes, a taxa de transpiração e a biomassa das plantas de laranjeiras. Os coeficientes de partição caule-água e o fator de concentração no fluxo de transpiração foram calculados por meio de expressões que correlacionam cada um desses parâmetros com o coeficiente de partição octanol-água. Os poluentes indicados para monitoramento em laranja foram: 1,2-diclorobenzeno, 1,3-diclorobenzeno, 1,4-diclorobenzeno, 2,4-dinitrofenol, 3,3- diclorobenzidina e nitrobenzeno

Fator de bioconcentração de poluentes de lodo em laranjeiras.

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The impact of Chinese import penetration on the South African manufacturing sector

This article uses a Chenery-type decomposition and econometric estimation to evaluate the impact of Chinese trade on production and employment in South African manufacturing from 1992 to 2010. The results suggest that increased import penetration from China caused South African manufacturing output to be 5 per cent lower in 2010 than it otherwise would have been. The estimated reduction of total employment in manufacturing as a result of trade with China is larger – in 2010 about 8 per cent – because the declines in output were concentrated on labour-intensive industries and because the increase in imports raised labour productivity within industries