Nonparametric confidence intervals for monotone functions

We study nonparametric isotonic confidence intervals for monotone functions. In Banerjee and Wellner (2001) pointwise confidence intervals, based on likelihood ratio tests for the restricted and unrestricted MLE in the current status model, are introduced. We extend the method to the treatment of other models with monotone functions, and demonstrate our method by a new proof of the results in Banerjee and Wellner (2001) and also by constructing confidence intervals for monotone densities, for which still theory had to be developed. For the latter model we prove that the limit distribution of the LR test under the null hypothesis is the same as in the current status model. We compare the confidence intervals, so obtained, with confidence intervals using the smoothed maximum likelihood estimator (SMLE), using bootstrap methods. The `Lagrange-modified' cusum diagrams, developed here, are an essential tool both for the computation of the restricted MLEs and for the development of the theory for the confidence intervals, based on the LR tests.Comment: 31 pages, 13 figure

Smooth plug-in inverse estimators in the current status continuous mark model

We consider the problem of estimating the joint distribution function of the event time and a continuous mark variable when the event time is subject to interval censoring case 1 and the continuous mark variable is only observed in case the event occurred before the time of inspection. The nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator in this model is known to be inconsistent. We study two alternative smooth estimators, based on the explicit (inverse) expression of the distribution function of interest in terms of the density of the observable vector. We derive the pointwise asymptotic distribution of both estimators.Comment: 29 pages, 12 figure

Maximum smoothed likelihood estimation and smoothed maximum likelihood estimation in the current status model

We consider the problem of estimating the distribution function, the density and the hazard rate of the (unobservable) event time in the current status model. A well studied and natural nonparametric estimator for the distribution function in this model is the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). We study two alternative methods for the estimation of the distribution function, assuming some smoothness of the event time distribution. The first estimator is based on a maximum smoothed likelihood approach. The second method is based on smoothing the (discrete) MLE of the distribution function. These estimators can be used to estimate the density and hazard rate of the event time distribution based on the plug-in principle.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOS721 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Testing monotonicity of a hazard: asymptotic distribution theory

Two new test statistics are introduced to test the null hypotheses that the sampling distribution has an increasing hazard rate on a specified interval [0,a]. These statistics are empirical L_1-type distances between the isotonic estimates, which use the monotonicity constraint, and either the empirical distribution function or the empirical cumulative hazard. They measure the excursions of the empirical estimates with respect to the isotonic estimates, due to local non-monotonicity. Asymptotic normality of the test statistics, if the hazard is strictly increasing on [0,a], is established under mild conditions. This is done by first approximating the global empirical distance by an distance with respect to the underlying distribution function. The resulting integral is treated as sum of increasingly many local integrals to which a CLT can be applied. The behavior of the local integrals is determined by a canonical process: the difference between the stochastic process x -> W(x)+x^2 where W is standard two-sided Brownian Motion, and its greatest convex minorant.Comment: 28 pages, 1 figur

Confidence intervals in monotone regression

We construct bootstrap confidence intervals for a monotone regression function. It has been shown that the ordinary nonparametric bootstrap, based on the nonparametric least squares estimator (LSE) $\hat f_n$ is inconsistent in this situation. We show, however, that a consistent bootstrap can be based on the smoothed $\hat f_n$, to be called the SLSE (Smoothed Least Squares Estimator). The asymptotic pointwise distribution of the SLSE is derived. The confidence intervals, based on the smoothed bootstrap, are compared to intervals based on the (not necessarily monotone) Nadaraya Watson estimator and the effect of Studentization is investigated. We also give a method for automatic bandwidth choice, correcting work in Sen and Xu (2015). The procedure is illustrated using a well known dataset related to climate change.Comment: 22 pages, 8 figure

A maximum smoothed likelihood estimator in the current status continuous mark model

We consider the problem of estimating the joint distribution function of the event time and a continuous mark variable based on censored data. More specifically, the event time is subject to current status censoring and the continuous mark is only observed in case inspection takes place after the event time. The nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in this model is known to be inconsistent. We propose and study an alternative likelihood based estimator, maximizing a smoothed log-likelihood, hence called a maximum smoothed likelihood estimator (MSLE). This estimator is shown to be well defined and consistent, and a simple algorithm is described that can be used to compute it. The MSLE is compared with other estimators in a small simulation study.Comment: 24 pages, 6 figure