PREDICTING FEEDING COST OF GAIN WITH MORE PRECISION

Costs during the feeding period, commonly summarized as "feeding cost of gain", are primary determinants of cattle feeding profits. This study provides a method of generalizing information available at placement time into a suitable feeding cost of gain prediction, so that feeders and ranchers can make more informed placement decisions.Cattle-Feeding, Feeding-Cost-Of-Gain, Industrial Organization, Livestock Production/Industries,

Cost Efficiency Estimates for a Sample of Crop and Beef Farms

This paper examines the impact of specialization on the cost efficiency of a sample of crop and beef farms in Kansas. The economic total expense ratio was used to measure cost efficiency. The relationship between the economic total expense ratio and specialization was not significant.Farm Management,

Measuring the Productivity of Cattle Finishing

Livestock Production/Industries, Productivity Analysis,

COMMERCIAL BEEF HERD REPLACEMENT STRATEGIES

Annualized cow ownership costs represent a large component of the total costs in a cow-calf enterprise, and therefore impact profitability. Annualized cow costs are determined in large part by the price or cost of that cow when it entered the herd. We find that ownership costs, and in turn cow-herd profitability, can be significantly impacted by heifer replacement strategies. Timing (within the cattle cycle) and method (raise vs. purchase) are both important considerations.Livestock Production/Industries,

Competition, Bargaining Power, and the Cattle Cycle

Cattle production follows a dynamic cycle that has often been analyzed, and cattle markets receive much scrutiny because of the potential for buyer market power. The relationship between the two has been little studied, however. This paper provides a simple conceptual framework to study how the cattle cycle and market concentration jointly affect the bargaining power of producers and packers yielding the following main results. Not surprisingly, a larger cattle stock reduces producers' bargaining position, which results in a lower fed cattle price. More importantly, however, the cattle stock's negative effect on price is magnified by the market concentration in beef packing. Thus, the cycle itself is very importantly related to a posited cycle of bargaining power between cattle producers and beef packers. Secondly, the model also shows how beef packers may use the special feature of cattle as both consumption and capital goods to lower the cattle price by influencing cattle inventories.Livestock Production/Industries,

The Economics of Selling Crop Residue Biomass for Cellulosic Ethanol Production at the Farm Level

A partial budget decision making framework has been developed to assist crop producers in analyzing the profitability of selling cellulosic biomass from their fields for ethanol production. A multidisciplinary approach is taken in assessing the agronomic and economic factors relevant to biomass contract sales decisions – with direct application made to western Great Plains cropping systems and enterprises. Within this framework the benefits of increased revenue from cellulosic biomass contract sales and potential government assistance payments are considered against possible decreased revenue from diminished crop yields resulting from less crop residue cover and subsequent soil moisture evaporation. Increased biomass harvesting and handling are also considered, as is the cost of replacing crop nutrients removed as part of biomass harvest operations. Examples of the profitability of cellulosic biomass contract sales in center pivot irrigated corn and non-irrigated wheat enterprises are shown.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

FUTURES-BASED PRICE FORECASTS FOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS AND BUSINESSES

The forecasting accuracy of five competing naïve and futures-based localized cash price forecasts is determined. The third-week's price each month from 1987-96 is forecasted from several vantage points. Commodities examine include those relevant to Midwest producers: the major grains, slaughter steers, slaughter hogs, several classes of feeder cattle, cull cows, and sows. Relative forecasting accuracy across forecast method is compared using regression models of forecast error. The traditional forecast method deferred futures plus historical basis has the greatest accuracy- even for cull cows. Adding complexity to forecasts, such as including regression models to capture nonlinear bases or biases in futures markets, does not improve accuracy.Demand and Price Analysis,

IDENTIFYING ECONOMIC RISK IN CATTLE FEEDING

Closeout data from two western Kansas commercial feedlots are examined to determine how cattle prices, feed costs, and animal performance impact the variability of cattle feeding profits. The relative impacts of these factors are studied across sex, placement weight, and placement month using standardized beta coefficients. Feeder cattle prices have a greater impact on profit variability for spring and fall placements. The effect of animal performance on variability of cattle feeding profits is greater for fall placements. Results suggest that fed cattle and feeder cattle prices should be emphasized in managing the overall risk in cattle feeding because they are the largest contributors to profit variability.cattle finishing profitability, cattle performance, feedlot closeouts, standardized beta coefficients, Livestock Production/Industries,

Estimating the Economic Value of Specific Characteristics Associated with Angus Bulls Sold at Auction

The genetic traits of a purebred bull convey the reproductive and economic value to buyers. This study examines and compares the value of actual production weights (birth, weaning, and yearling weight), production expected progeny differences (EPDs) (birth, weaning, milk, and yearling), and ultrasound EPDs (carcass quality predictors) for purebred Angus bulls sold at auction. One EPD, birth weight, was valued by buyers more than its corresponding actual weight, though both actual weights and EPDs significantly impact price. Predictors of carcass quality were important in determining price. Finally, several individual animal factors and sale characteristics were significant in determining price.Angus bulls, carcass characteristics, EPDs, marketing factors, production factors, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Livestock Production/Industries, Q10, Q12,

ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH EPDS FOR ANGUS BULLS AT AUCTION

The genetic traits that an Angus bull possesses convey the reproductive and economic value of the animal to potential buyers. This paper examines and draws comparisons between the value of actual production weights and production EPDs, while also establishing values for ultrasound EPDs. Results indicate that only one EPD, birth weight, was valued by buyers more than its corresponding actual weight, though actual weights and EPDs significantly impacted price. Ultrasound EPDs were also found to be significant, suggesting buyers of Angus bulls consider carcass information when purchasing bulls.Angus Bulls, Birth Weight, Carcass, EPDs, Hedonic Model, Livestock Production/Industries,