Climatescan.nl: the development of a web-based map application to encourage knowledge-sharing of climate-proofing and urban resilient projects

Over recent years, there has been an explosion in the number and diversity of projects undertaken to address urban resilience and climate proofing. Sharing the knowledge gained from these projects demands increasingly innovative and accessible methods. This paper details the outcomes of one such initiative: an interactive web-based map application that provides an entry point to gain detailed information of various ‘blue-green’ projects. The climatescan.nl has proven to be a successful tool in several international workshops, not only for field-based practitioners but also for those involved in teaching and research. Further upscaling is needed however if the full potential of such an application is to be achieved

A method for exploratory repeated-measures analysis applied to a breast-cancer screening study

When a model may be fitted separately to each individual statistical unit, inspection of the point estimates may help the statistician to understand between-individual variability and to identify possible relationships. However, some information will be lost in such an approach because estimation uncertainty is disregarded. We present a comparative method for exploratory repeated-measures analysis to complement the point estimates that was motivated by and is demonstrated by analysis of data from the CADET II breast-cancer screening study. The approach helped to flag up some unusual reader behavior, to assess differences in performance, and to identify potential random-effects models for further analysis.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS481 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Fine-scale climate change: modelling spatial variation in biologically meaningful rates of warming

The existence of fine‐grain climate heterogeneity has prompted suggestions that species may be able to survive future climate change in pockets of suitable microclimate, termed ‘microrefugia’. However, evidence for microrefugia is hindered by lack of understanding of how rates of warming vary across a landscape. Here, we present a model that is applied to provide fine‐grained, multidecadal estimates of temperature change based on the underlying physical processes that influence microclimate. Weather station and remotely derived environmental data were used to construct physical variables that capture the effects of terrain, sea surface temperatures, altitude and surface albedo on local temperatures, which were then calibrated statistically to derive gridded estimates of temperature. We apply the model to the Lizard Peninsula, United Kingdom, to provide accurate (mean error = 1.21 °C; RMS error = 1.63 °C) hourly estimates of temperature at a resolution of 100 m for the period 1977–2014. We show that rates of warming vary across a landscape primarily due to long‐term trends in weather conditions. Total warming varied from 0.87 to 1.16 °C, with the slowest rates of warming evident on north‐east‐facing slopes. This variation contributed to substantial spatial heterogeneity in trends in bioclimatic variables: for example, the change in the length of the frost‐free season varied from +11 to −54 days and the increase in annual growing degree‐days from 51 to 267 °C days. Spatial variation in warming was caused primarily by a decrease in daytime cloud cover with a resulting increase in received solar radiation, and secondarily by a decrease in the strength of westerly winds, which has amplified the effects on temperature of solar radiation on west‐facing slopes. We emphasize the importance of multidecadal trends in weather conditions in determining spatial variation in rates of warming, suggesting that locations experiencing least warming may not remain consistent under future climate change

Squidpops: A Simple Tool to Crowdsource a Global Map of Marine Predation Intensity

We present a simple, standardized assay, the squidpop, for measuring the relative feeding intensity of generalist predators in aquatic systems. The assay consists of a 1.3-cm diameter disk of dried squid mantle tethered to a rod, which is either inserted in the sediment in soft-bottom habitats or secured to existing structure. Each replicate squidpop is scored as present or absent after 1 and 24 hours, and the data for analysis are proportions of replicate units consumed at each time. Tests in several habitats of the temperate southeastern USA (Virginia and North Carolina) and tropical Central America (Belize) confirmed the assay’s utility for measuring variation in predation intensity among habitats, among seasons, and along environmental gradients. In Belize, predation intensity varied strongly among habitats, with reef\u3eseagrass = mangrove\u3eunvegetated bare sand. Quantitative visual surveys confirmed that assayed feeding intensity increased with abundance and species richness of fishes across sites, with fish abundance and richness explaining up to 45% and 70% of the variation in bait loss respectively. In the southeastern USA, predation intensity varied seasonally,being highest during summer and declining in late autumn. Deployments in marsh habitats generally revealed a decline in mean predation intensity from fully marine to tidal freshwater sites. The simplicity, economy, and standardization of the squidpop assay should facilitate engagement of scientists and citizens alike, with the goal of constructing high-resolution maps of how top-down control varies through space and time in aquatic ecosystems, and addressing a broad array of long-standing hypotheses in macro- and community ecolog

Fetal origins of malarial disease: cord blood cytokines as risk markers for pediatric severe malarial anemia.

BACKGROUND: Severe malarial anemia (SMA) remains a major cause of pediatric illness and mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. Here we test the hypothesis that prenatal exposures, reflected by soluble inflammatory mediators in cord blood, can condition an individual's susceptibility to SMA. METHODS: In a Tanzanian birth cohort (n = 743), we measured cord blood concentrations of tumor necrosis factor (TNF), TNF receptors I and II (TNF-RI and TNF-RII), interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-10, and interferon gamma (IFN-γ). After adjusting for conventional covariates, we calculated the hazard ratios (HR) for time to first SMA event with log(e) cytokine concentrations dichotomized at the median, by quartile, and per standard deviation (SD) increase. RESULTS: Low levels of TNF, TNF-RI, IL-1β, and IL-5 and high levels of TNF-RII were associated statistically significantly and respectively with approximately 3-fold, 2-fold, 8-fold, 4-fold, and 3-fold increased risks of SMA (Hb < 50 g/L). TNF, TNF-RI, and IL-1β concentrations were inversely and log-linearly associated with SMA risk; the HR (95% confidence interval [CI]) per 1-SD increase were respectively 0.81 (.65, 1.02), 0.76 (.62, .92), and 0.50 (.40, .62). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that proinflammatory cytokine levels at birth are inversely associated with SMA risk and support the hypothesis that pediatric malarial disease has fetal origins

Cord Blood Hepcidin: Cross-Sectional Correlates and Associations with Anemia, Malaria, and Mortality in a Tanzanian Birth Cohort Study.

Hepcidin, the master regulator of bioavailable iron, is a key mediator of anemia and also plays a central role in host defense against infection. We hypothesized that measuring hepcidin levels in cord blood could provide an early indication of interindividual differences in iron regulation with quantifiable implications for anemia, malaria, and mortality-related risk. Hepcidin concentrations were measured in cord plasma from a birth cohort (N = 710), which was followed for up to 4 years in a region of perennial malaria transmission in Muheza, Tanzania (2002-2006). At the time of delivery, cord hepcidin levels were correlated with inflammatory mediators, iron markers, and maternal health conditions. Hepcidin levels were 30% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 12%, 44%) lower in children born to anemic mothers and 48% (95% CI: 11%, 97%) higher in placental malaria-exposed children. Relative to children in the lowest third, children in the highest third of cord hepcidin had on average 2.5 g/L (95% CI: 0.1, 4.8) lower hemoglobin levels over the duration of follow-up, increased risk of anemia and severe anemia (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI]: 1.18 [1.03, 1.36] and 1.34 [1.08, 1.66], respectively), and decreased risk of malaria and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR [95% CI]: 0.78 [0.67, 0.91] and 0.34 [0.14, 0.84], respectively). Although longitudinal measurements of hepcidin and iron stores are required to strengthen causal inference, these results suggest that hepcidin may have utility as a biomarker indicating children's susceptibility to anemia and infection in early life

Identification of production challenges and benefits using value chain mapping of egg food systems in Nairobi, Kenya

Commercial layer and indigenous chicken farming in Nairobi and associated activities in the egg value chains are a source of livelihood for urban families. A value chain mapping framework was used to describe types of inputs and outputs from chicken farms, challenges faced by producers and their disease control strategies. Commercial layer farms were defined as farms keeping exotic breeds of chicken, whereas indigenous chicken farms kept different cross breeds of indigenous chicken. Four focus group discussions were held with producers of these chickens in peri-urban area: Dagoretti, and one informal settlement: Kibera. Qualitative data were collected on interactions between farmers, sources of farm inputs and buyers of poultry products, simple ranking of production challenges, farmers' perception on diseases affecting chicken and strategies for management of sick chicken and waste products. Value chain profiles were drawn showing sources of inputs and channels for distribution of chicken products. Production challenges and chicken disease management strategies were presented as qualitative summaries. Commercial layer farms in Dagoretti kept an average of 250 chickens (range 50–500); while flock sizes in Kibera were 12 chickens (range 5–20). Farms keeping indigenous chicken had an average of 23 chickens (range 8–40) in Dagoretti, and 10 chickens (range 5–16) in Kibera. Commercial layer farms in Dagoretti obtained chicks from distributors of commercial hatcheries, but farms in Kibera obtained chicks from hawkers who in turn sourced them from distributors of commercial hatcheries. Indigenous chicken farms from Dagoretti relied on natural hatching of fertilised eggs, but indigenous chicken farms in Kibera obtained chicks from their social connection with communities living in rural areas. Outlets for eggs from commercial layer farms included local shops, brokers, restaurants and hawkers, while eggs from indigenous chicken farms were sold to neighbours and restaurants. Sieved chicken manure from Dagoretti area was fed to dairy cattle; whereas non-sieved manure was used as fertilizer on crops. Production challenges included poor feed quality, lack of space for expansion, insecurity, occurrence of diseases and lack of sources of information on chicken management. In Kibera, sick and dead chickens were slaughtered and consumed by households; this practice was not reported in Dagoretti. The chicken layer systems contribute to food security of urban households, yet they have vulnerabilities and deficiencies with regard to disease management and food safety that need to be addressed with support on research and extension

Crystalline adducts of the Lawsone molecule (2-hydroxy-1,4-naphthaquinone): optical properties and computational modelling

Four new crystalline adducts of the Lawsone molecule (2-hydroxy-1,4-naphthaquinone) with 4,4'-bipyridine, 4-(2-pyridine-4-ethyl)pyridine, 1,3-di.4-pyridyl)propane and 2-hydroxy pyridine are reported. Adduct formation leads to colour shifts, which are characterised by UV/visible spectroscopy. Complementary quantum-chemical calculations are used to study the energetics of the adduct formation, and to gain insight into the origin of the observed colour changes