Estimating Sampling Variance from the Current Population Survey: A Synthetic Design Approach to Correcting Standard Errors

Essentially all empirical questions that are addressed with sample data require estimates of sampling variance. The econometrics and statistics literatures show that these estimates depend critically on the design of the sample. The sample for the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), which serves as the basis for official poverty, unemployment, and earnings estimates, results from a stratified and clustered design. Unfortunately, analysts are frequently unable to estimate sampling variance for many CPS statistics because the variables marking the strata and clusters are censored from the public-use data files. To compensate for this, the Bureau of Census provides a method to approximate the sampling variance for several, specific point estimates, but no general method exists for estimates that differ from these cases. Similarly there are no corrections at all for regression estimates. This paper proposes a general approximation method that creates synthetic design variables for the estimation of sampling variance. The results from this method compare well with officially reported standard errors. This methodology allows the analyst to estimate sampling variance for a significantly wider class of estimates than previously possible, and therefore increases the usefulness of research resulting from the CPS data files.Current Population Survey, Sampling Variance, Sample Design, Regional Analysis, Rural, Poverty

Overweight and Poor? On the Relationship between Income and the Body Mass Index

Contrary to conventional wisdom, NHANES data indicate that the poor have never had a statistically significant higher prevalence of overweight status at any time in the last 35 years. Despite this empirical evidence, the view that the poor are less healthy in terms of excess accumulation of fat persists. This paper provides evidence that conventional wisdom is reflecting important differences in the relationship between income and the body mass index. The first finding is based on distribution-sensitive measures of overweight which indicates that the severity of overweight has been higher for the poor than the nonpoor throughout the last 35 years. The second finding is from a newly introduced estimator, unconditional quantile regression (UQR), which provides a measure of the income-gradient in BMI at different points on the unconditional BMI distribution. The UQR estimator indicates that the strongest relationship between income and BMI is observed at the tails of the distribution. There is a strong negative income gradient in BMI at the obesity threshold and some evidence of a positive gradient at the underweight threshold. Both of these UQR estimates imply that for those at the tails of the BMI distribution, increases in income are correlated with healthier BMI values.overweight, obesity, body mass index, unconditional quantile regression, Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measures, NHANES

ESTIMATING SAMPLING VARIANCE FROM THE CURRENT POPULATION SURVEY: A SYNTHETIC DESIGN APPROACH TO CORRECTING STANDARD ERRORS

Essentially all empirical questions that are addressed with sample data require estimates of sampling variance. The econometrics and statistics literatures show that these estimates depend critically on the design of the sample. The sample for the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), which serves as the basis for official poverty, unemployment, and earnings estimates, results from a stratified and clustered design. Unfortunately, analysts are frequently unable to estimate sampling variance for many CPS statistics because the variables marking the strata and clusters are censored from the public-use data files. To compensate for this, the Bureau of Census provides a method to approximate the sampling variance for several, specific point estimates, but no general method exists for estimates that differ from these cases. Similarly there are no corrections at all for regression estimates. This paper proposes a general approximation method that creates synthetic design variables for the estimation of sampling variance. The results from this method compare well with officially reported standard errors. This methodology allows the analyst to estimate sampling variance for a significantly wider class of estimates than previously possible, and therefore increases the usefulness of research resulting from the CPS data files.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

After, Before and During: Returns to Education in the Hungarian Transition

How valuable are the education and skills acquired under socialism in a market economy? This paper uses data for about 3 million Hungarian wage earners, from 1986 to 1998, to throw light on this question. We find that returns to schooling reach 10 percent early on and remain at this high level. These estimates are larger than for other transition economies, but similar to those for middle-income developing countries. With the gap in average years of schooling unremitting, we argue that the Hungarian stock of human capital is considerably less than the existing figures have led us to believe.Human Capital, Labor Markets, Transition Economies, Hungary

Searches for TeV-scale particles at the LHC using jet shapes

New particles at the TeV scale can decay hadronically with strongly collimated jets, thus the standard reconstruction methods based on invariant-masses of well-separated jets can fail. We discuss how to identify such particles in pp collisions at the LHC using jet shapes which help to reduce the contribution of QCD-induced events. We focus on a rather generic example X to ttbar to hadrons, with X being a heavy particle, but the approach is well suited for reconstruction of other decay channels characterized by a cascade decay of known states.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figure

The Income Gradient and Distribution-Sensitive Measures of Overweight in the U.S.

This paper considers alternate measures of overweight in the U.S. that are sensitive to changes in the body-mass index (BMI) distribution, more robust to measurement error and continuous in the body-mass index (BMI) at the overweight threshold. The measures suggest that standard prevalence rates may be understating the severity of the problem. Since 1971, overweight prevalence has increased by 40% while the distribution-sensitive measure has increased by 174%. They also provide some useful insight into socioeconomic differences in overweight. For example, overweight prevalence rates for the poor and the rich have been very similar over the last 30 years, with the rich have a slightly higher rate in the most recent 2001- 2002 data. In contrast, the distribution sensitive measures reveal that overweight rich people exceed the overweight threshold by 23% while the overweight poor exceed the threshold by a much greater amount (31%) on average.Health Economics and Policy,

LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS' EXPENDITURES ON FRUITS AND VEGETABLES

This report analyzes fruit and vegetable expenditures by low-income households and higher income households, and compares the sensitivity of both groups' purchases to changes in income. On average, low-income households spent $3.59 per capita per week on fruits and vegetables in 2000 while higher income households spent$5.02-a statistically significant difference. In addition, a statistical demand model indicates that marginal increases in income received by low-income households are not spent on additional fruits and vegetables. In contrast, increases in income received by higher income households do increase their fruit and vegetable expenditures. One interpretation of this finding is that low-income households will allocate an additional dollar of income to other food or nonfood items deemed more essential to the household such as meats, clothing, or housing.Low-income, food expenditures, fruits and vegetables, stochastic dominance, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

A profile of poverty in Egypt: 1997

This paper presents a profile of poverty in Egypt for 1997. It assesses the magnitude of poverty and its distribution across geographic and socioeconomic groups, provides information on the characteristics of the poor, illustrates the heterogeneity among the poor, and helps identify empirical correlates of poverty. The poverty profile is constructed using data from the recently completed Egypt Integrated Household Survey, a nationwide, multiple-topic household survey, carried out by the International Food Policy Research Institute in coordination with the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation and the Ministry of Trade and Supply. Reference poverty lines that take into account regional differences in food and nonfood prices, age and composition of poor households, and food and nonfood consumption preferences are used to determine incidence, depth, and severity of poverty. The characteristics of the poor are analyzed. These characteristics include household composition, dwelling type, educational attainment and access, labor force participation and distribution, child immunization levels, payment transfers, agricultural landholdings, and access to community facilities.Food consumption. ,Poverty ,

After, Before and During: Returns to Education in the Hungarian Transition

How valuable are the education and skills acquired under socialism in a market economy? This paper uses data for about 3 million Hungarian wage earners, from 1986 to 1998, to throw light on this question. We find that returns to schooling reach 10 percent early on and remain at this high level. These estimates are larger than for other transition economies, but similar to those for middle-income developing countries. With the gap in average years of schooling unremitting, we argue that the Hungarian stock of human capital is considerably less than the existing figures have led us to believe.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39860/3/wp475.pd

Determinants of Poverty in Egypt

Poverty alleviation Egypt ,Development policies ,Food prices Government policy Egypt ,Agricultural wages ,