OMP 2020 candidates for the Nightingale rock lobster fishery

The performances of a number of OMP candidates for the fishery for rock lobster at Nightingale are reported. These performances do not show much variation amongst the various candidates. For this and other reasons it is recommended that CMP9 be adopted as the new OMP for Nightingale. This CMP has a TAC ceiling of 100 MT. Very little further resource protection (which is in any case already certainly adequate) is provided by a CMP with a lower TAC ceiling. All the CMPs have appropriate feedback, so that if the resource declines in the future, the future TAC will do so too. An added precautionary feature defines an Ilim catch rate below which the TAC can decline faster than the baseline constraint of 5% pa given the occurrence of specified “Exceptional Circumstances”; this feature is built into the CMPs

Initial results from the development of a new OMP 2020 for Tristan da Cunha island rock lobster resource

Development of a revised OMP (OMP 2020) for the Tristan island rock lobster resource first leads to a recommendation to include the annual Edinburgh/GS CPUE and the biomass survey index as well as the Tristan powerboat CPUE index as inputs to the formula to provide an annual TAC recommendation. Following an extensive comparison exercise, two options are put forward as candidates for the revised OMP: CMP1 and CMP2. Both reflect slightly less risk of undue resource depletion than under the current OMP 2016. CMP1 is very similar to that current OMP, and is expected to maintain annual TACs close to 120 MT. In contrast, under CMP2 TACs would be expected to increase slightly over the next decade, accompanied by a slight decrease in the catch rate compared to that under CMP1

Further CMP results for the SCRL resource

Results are reported for three further CMPs for the south coast rock lobster. Simulations now take the 2017 catches and CPUE values into account

Recent assessment and projection sensitivities pursued for west cost rock lobster

This document investigates the implications for assessments and projections for super-area A8+ for various sensitivity tests which include a square root relationship of CPUE to biomass, and different approaches to estimating recent recruitments whose values lead to a large impact on projections. A likelihood profile for the ratio of the most recent recruitment estimate relative to pristine recruitment is also reported

Why the horse-mackerel survey data require changes in selectivity over time

This document explores why the horse-mackerel survey data require changes in selectivity over time

SCRL OMP-2019 simulation testing and initial development proposals

This document sets out the details of the process proposed to be used for projecting the 2018 assessment forwards and generating future pseudo-data in the simulation testing to be applied in the development of a new SCRL OMP-2019

The 2018 south coast rock lobster reference case operating model

This document details the current 2018 Reference Case Operating Model which is to be proposed to be used for simulation testing of a new OMP for South Coast rock lobster