Impact of electricity market feedback on investments in solar photovoltaic and battery systems in Swedish single-family dwellings

The profitability of investments in photovoltaics (PVs) and batteries in private households depends on the market price of electricity, which in turn is affected by the investments made in and the usage of PVs and batteries. This creates a feedback mechanism between the centralised electricity generation system, and household investments in PVs and batteries. To investigate this feedback effect, we connect a local optimisation model for household investments with a European power generation dispatch model. The local optimisation is based on the consumption profiles measured for 2104 Swedish households. The modelling compares three different scenarios for the centralised electricity supply system in Year 2032, as well as several sensitivity cases. Our results show total investment levels of 5–20 GWp of PV and 0.01–10 GWh of battery storage capacity in Swedish households in the investigated cases. These levels are up to 33% lower than before market feedback is taken into account. The profitability of PV investments is affected most by the price of electricity and the assumptions made regarding grid tariffs and taxes. The value of investments in batteries depends on both the benefits of increased self-consumption of PV electricity and market arbitrage

Impacts of demand response from buildings and centralized thermal energy storage on district heating systems

\ua9 2020 The Author(s) Energy use for space heating is a substantial part of total energy end use and heating systems can offer some flexibility in time of use, which should be important in future energy systems to maintain balance between supply and demand. This work applies a techno-economic, integrated, demand-supply optimization model to investigate the combined effect of using demand-side flexibility from buildings, by allowing for indoor temperature deviations (both up- and downward from the set-point), and supply-side flexibility, by applying thermal energy storage (TES), on the operation of district heating (DH) systems. The results indicate that the potential for increased indoor temperature, i.e., demand response (DR), is concentrated to multi-family and non-residential buildings (heavy buildings with high time-constants), while the potential for downregulation of the temperature, i.e., operational energy savings, is utilized to a greater extent by single-family buildings (light buildings). It is also evident that the value of DR diminishes in the presence of a supply-side TES. We show that applying both the demand-side flexibility and a centralized TES is complementary from the heating system perspective in that it results in the lowest total space heating load of the buildings and the lowest running cost for the DH system

A Geospatial Comparison of Distributed Solar Heat and Power in Europe and the US

The global trends for the rapid growth of distributed solar heat and power in the last decade will likely continue as the levelized cost of production for these technologies continues to decline. To be able to compare the economic potential of solar technologies one must first quantify the types and amount of solar resource that each technology can utilize; second, estimate the technological performance potential based on that resource; and third, compare the costs of each technology across regions. In this analysis, we have performed the first two steps in this process. We use physical and empirically validated models of a total of 8 representative solar system types: non-tracking photovoltaics, 2d-tracking photovoltaics, high concentration photovoltaics, flat-plate thermal, evacuated tube thermal, concentrating trough thermal, concentrating solar combined heat and power, and hybrid concentrating photovoltaic/thermal. These models are integrated into a simulation that uses typical meteorological year weather data to create a yearly time series of heat and electricity production for each system over 12,846 locations in Europe and 1,020 locations in the United States. Through this simulation, systems composed of various permutations of collector-types and technologies can be compared geospatially and temporally in terms of their typical production in each location. For example, we see that silicon solar cells show a significant advantage in yearly electricity production over thin-film cells in the colder climatic regions, but that advantage is lessened in regions that have high average irradiance. In general, the results lead to the conclusion that comparing solar technologies across technology classes simply on cost per peak watt, as is usually done, misses these often significant regional differences in annual performance. These results have implications for both solar power development and energy systems modeling of future pathways of the electricity system

Balancing investments in building energy conservation measures with investments in district heating – A Swedish case study

We investigate the cost-optimal mix of reduction in the space heating (SH) demand in buildings, achieved through investments in energy conservation measures (ECMs), and investments in the local district heating (DH) system. The work includes three modeling scenarios, which differ with respect to SH demand reduction targets (no supply side targets) for buildings: without a target (only fuel price drives demand reduction); with a total demand reduction (for the building stock); and with a specific demand reduction (to reach a specific kWh/(m2∙y) value for individual buildings). Special emphasis is placed on the choice of ECMs in buildings. For the scenario without a target for SH demand reduction, the least-cost option is a combination of investments in ECMs, heat generation and in storage technologies, yielding a SH demand reduction of 24% already by Year 2030, and thereafter a decrease of 28% up to Year 2050. The reductions are achieved mainly through investments in ventilation heat recovery systems and insulation of roofs. The scenarios that include SH demand reduction targets give similar demand reductions of about 60% by 2050, as compared to 2020. However, the investment cost for fulfilling the specific target scenario is higher than that for the total target scenario

Solar photovoltaic-battery systems in Swedish households - Self-consumption and self-sufficiency

This work investigates the extent to which domestic energy storage, in the form of batteries, can increase the self-consumption of electricity generated by a photovoltaic (PV) installation. The work uses real world household energy consumption data (measurements) as the input to a household energy consumption model. The model maximizes household self-sufficiency, by minimizing the amount of electricity purchased from the grid, and thereby also maximizing the level of self-consumption of PV electricity, i.e., the amount of PV-generated electricity that is consumed in-house. This is done for different combinations of PV installation sizes (measured in array-to-load ratio; ALR: ratio of the PV capacity to the average annual electric load of a household) and battery capacities for different categories of single-family dwellings in Sweden (i.e., northern latitudes). The modeling includes approximately 2000 households (buildings). The results show that the use of batteries with capacities within the investigated range, i.e., 0.15-100 kW h, can increase the level of self-consumption by a practical maximum of 20-50 percentage points (depending on the load profile of the household) compared to not using a battery. As an example, for a household with an annual electricity consumption of 20 MW h and a PV installation of 7 kW,,, this range in increased self-consumption of PV-generated electricity requires battery capacities in the range of 1524 kW h (actual usable capacity), depending on the load profile of the specific household. The practical maximum range is determined by the seasonality of PV generation at Swedish latitudes, i.e., higher levels of increased self-consumption are possible, however, it would require substantially larger batteries than the up to 100 kW h investigated in this work. Thus, any additional marginal increment in battery capacity beyond the range investigated results in a low level of utilization and poor additional value. Furthermore, our results reveal that when a battery is used to store PV-generated electricity in-house, self-sufficiency increases (as compared to not using a battery) by 12.5-30 percentage points for the upper range of the investigated PV capacities (ALR. of 6). (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Demand response potential of electrical space heating in Swedish single-family dwellings

This paper investigates the potential and economics of electrical space heating in Swedish single-family dwellings (SFDs) to provide Demand Response (DR) for the electricity load in Sweden.A dynamic and detailed building-stock model, is used to calculate the net energy demand by end-use of a set of sample buildings taken as representative of all Swedish SFDs with electrical heating. A new sub-model optimizes the dispatch of heating systems on an hourly basis, for each representative building, minimizing the cost of electricity purchased from the hourly spot market.The analysis of the Swedish SFD buildings indicates a technical DR capacity potential of 7.3 GW, which is considerable and can be used for the management of intermittent electricity generation. This potential could also prove to be valuable in the operating reserve market. However, this requires that the DR, rather than being governed by a single hourly electricity price signal, would instead be subject to a more centralized control. The modeling shows that DR can be expected to result in up to 5.5 GW of decreased load and 4.4 GW of increased load, if applying current Swedish electricity prices. The modeling shows that DR shifts up to 1.46 TWh of electric heating, corresponding to 1% of total Swedish electricity demand. The potential savings from DR for individual SFDs is found to be low, 0.9–330 €/year, given current Swedish electricity prices

Actuating the European Energy System Transition: Indicators for Translating Energy Systems Modelling Results into Policy-Making

In this paper, we define indicators, with a focus on the electricity sector, that translate the results of energy systems modelling to quantitative entities that can facilitate assessments of the transitions required to meet stringent climate targets. Such indicators, which are often overlooked in model scenario presentations, can be applied to make the modelling results more accessible and are useful for managing the transition on the policy level, as well as for internal evaluations of modelling results. We propose a set of 13 indicators related to: 1) the resource and material usages in modelled energy system designs; 2) the rates of transition from current to future energy systems; and 3) the energy security in energy system modelling results. To illustrate its value, the proposed set of indicators is applied to energy system scenarios derived from an electricity system investment model for Northern Europe. We show that the proposed indicators are useful for facilitating discussions, raising new questions, and relating the modelling results to Sustainable Development Goals and thus facilitate better policy processes. The indicators presented here should not be seen as a complete set, but rather as examples. Therefore, this paper represents a starting point and a call to other modellers to expand and refine the list of indicators

Performance of hedge fund strategies in bull and bear markets

Hedge funds use a wide variety of investment styles, although many people have the perception that they are a relatively homogenous group with similar strategies to generate returns. Understanding the differences in the risk and return structure of hedge fund strategies is crucial to making a good investment decision. This paper examines the performance of 13 hedge fund strategies in the Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index, during a 20-years long period ranging from 1995 to 2015. In contrast to previous research, our study encompasses performance analysis on multiple long-term bull and bear stock market periods. Our study provides potential hedge fund investors with valuable information about the best performing strategies in different market conditions. The results show that returns vary greatly between different strategies and time periods

Comparing methods for identifying G-SIBs in Europe

The extra loss absorbency requirement for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) is one of the macroprudential reforms in Basel III aimed at lowering the systemic risk in the financial system. Systemic risk is difficult to define and measure and academics have proposed alternative ways to measure banks' systemic importance. This study analyses how the rankings of systemically important banks in Europe differ between the G-SIB methodology and the SRISK measure of systemic risk proposed by Brownlees and Engle (2016). In contrast to previous studies, this is the first study that empirically and theoretically compares the G-SIB classification methodology with a systemic risk measure proposed by academics. The study contributes to existing research by bridging the gap between the regulatory and academic approaches for measuring systemic risk and by providing an up-to-date view of systemic risk levels in Europe. I show that the two methods give similar rankings most of the time but some large inconsistencies are observed as a result of that regulators' and academics' view on systemic risk does not align. The results also indicate that the systemic risk level in Europe is currently at its lowest since 2005.MSc in Financ