A Cabin in the Woods: A Former Statistician Responds to a Critique of the Bayesian Version of the Fine-Tuning Argument for God’s Existence

Many theists and atheists agree that the fine-tuning argument is the most compelling argument for the existence of God. However, there are many different versions of this argument and, as with most things in life, some versions are better than others. In this paper I will respond to Neil A. Manson’s recent critique of what I call the Bayesian Version of the Fine-Tuning Argument for God’s existence. I will argue that the Bayesian version is a relatively poor argument but that the Abductive Version of the Fine-Tuning Argument for God’s existence is quite compelling

In vitro effect of canine hyperimmune sera on TNFa activity

[Introduction]: Septic shock in dogs is caused by cardiovascular and vasomotor failure associated with an uncontrolled intrinsic release of inflammatory mediators [1–5]. The syndrome is characterized by cardiovascular dysfunction, vascular permeability alterations, pulmonary oedema and tissue hypoxia resulting from microthrombi which may culminate in disseminated intravascular coagulation and catastrophic multiple organ failure [6,7]. Systemic bacterial infection, particularly by Gram-negative enterobacteria, haemorrhagic trauma, gastric dilation/volvulus and pancreatitis are the major underlying causes leading tosepsis [8,9]. Because of haemodynamic instability and associated hypovolemia, fluid replacement therapy is generally applied to restore effective circulating volume. The use of fresh frozen plasma has been recommended in cases of coagulopathies as it has been recognized to assist restoration of haemodynamic stability [1,5,10,11]. There is increasing evidence that the drivers of the haemodynamic instability are inflammatory mediators (particularly TNFa) activated primarily by bacterial endotoxin [3,4,12,13]

Reduced neural sensitivity to social stimuli in infants at risk for autism

In the hope of discovering early markers of autism, attention has recently turned to the study of infants at risk owing to being the younger siblings of children with autism. Because the condition is highly heritable, later-born siblings of diagnosed children are at substantially higher risk for developing autism or the broader autism phenotype than the general population. Currently, there are no strong predictors of autism in early infancy and diagnosis is not reliable until around 3 years of age. Because indicators of brain functioning may be sensitive predictors, and atypical social interactions are characteristic of the syndrome, we examined whether temporal lobe specialization for processing visual and auditory social stimuli during infancy differs in infants at risk. In a functional near-infrared spectroscopy study, infants aged 4–6 months at risk for autism showed less selective neural responses to social stimuli (auditory and visual) than low-risk controls. These group differences could not be attributed to overall levels of attention, developmental stage or chronological age. Our results provide the first demonstration of specific differences in localizable brain function within the first 6 months of life in a group of infants at risk for autism. Further, these differences closely resemble known patterns of neural atypicality in children and adults with autism. Future work will determine whether these differences in infant neural responses to social stimuli predict either later autism or the broader autism phenotype frequently seen in unaffected family members

Retired A Stars: The Effect of Stellar Evolution on the Mass Estimates of Subgiants

Doppler surveys have shown that the occurrence rate of Jupiter-mass planets appears to increase as a function of stellar mass. However, this result depends on the ability to accurately measure the masses of evolved stars. Recently, Lloyd (2011) called into question the masses of subgiant stars targeted by Doppler surveys. Lloyd argues that very few observable subgiants have masses greater than 1.5 Msun, and that most of them have masses in the range 1.0-1.2 Msun. To investigate this claim, we use Galactic stellar population models to generate an all-sky distribution of stars. We incorporate the effects that make massive subgiants less numerous, such as the initial mass function and differences in stellar evolution timescales. We find that these effects lead to negligibly small systematic errors in stellar mass estimates, in contrast to the roughly 50% errors predicted by Lloyd. Additionally, our simulated target sample does in fact include a significant fraction of stars with masses greater than 1.5 Msun, primarily because the inclusion of an apparent magnitude limit results in a Malmquist-like bias toward more massive stars, in contrast to the volume-limited simulations of Lloyd. The magnitude limit shifts the mean of our simulated distribution toward higher masses and results in a relatively smaller number of evolved stars with masses in the range 1.0-1.2 Msun. We conclude that, within the context of our present-day understanding of stellar structure and evolution, many of the subgiants observed in Doppler surveys are indeed as massive as main-sequence A stars.Comment: Accepted to ApJ, 5 pages, 3 figures; changed title, reworded introduction and conclusion

Conceptual analysis of a lunar base transportation system

Important to the planning for a lunar base is the development of transportation requirements for the establishment and maintenance of that base. This was accomplished as part of a lunar base systems assessment study conducted by the NASA Langley Research Center in conjunction with the NASA Johnson Space Center. Lunar base parameters are presented using a baseline lunar facility concept and timeline of developmental phases. Masses for habitation and scientific modules, power systems, life support systems, and thermal control systems were generated, assuming space station technology as a starting point. The masses were manifested by grouping various systems into cargo missions and interspersing manned flights consistent with construction and base maintenance timelines. A computer program that sizes the orbital transfer vehicles (OTV's), lunar landers, lunar ascenders, and the manned capsules was developed. This program consists of an interative technique to solve the rocket equation successively for each velocity correction (delta V) in a mission. The delta V values reflect integrated trajectory values and include gravity losses. As the program computed fuel masses, it matched structural masses from General Dynamics' modular space-based OTV design. Variables in the study included the operation mode (i.e., expendable vs. reusable and single-stage vs. two-stage OTV's), cryogenic specific impulse, reflecting different levels of engine technology, and aerobraking vs. all-propulsive return to Earth orbit. The use of lunar-derived oxygen was also examined for its general impact. For each combination of factors, the low-Earth orbit (LEO) stack masses and Earth-to-orbit (ETO) lift requirements are summarized by individual mission and totaled for the developmental phase. In addition to these discrete data, trends in the variation of study parameters are presented

Psychiatric assistance dog use for people living with mental health disorders

A psychiatric assistance dog (PAD) is a service dog that is trained to assist its handler (owner) who has been diagnosed with a mental health condition such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), schizophrenia, depression, anxiety, or bipolar disorder. Literature searches reveal that little is known about the population of people who own PADs, the types of dogs used or the functions they provide. One third (n = 199) of PAD owners in Australia registered with the charity “mindDog” participated in an online survey designed to better understand the person and dog team. Participants learned about PADs through the internet (37%), health care practitioners (32%), or family/friends (30%). The dogs in the sample were of varying age, gender and breed. The most common reasons for people to choose a dog to be a PAD were temperament (60%) and size/weight (48%). Just under half (48%) of the dogs had been acquired by the owner specifically to be trained as a PAD, and the rest were existing pets. All the dogs were trained by the owner or a combination of the owner and a qualified trainer; none were trained exclusively by assistance/service dog provider organizations. The median age of the participants at the time of data collection was 47 years, ranging from 10 to 75 years. Most (77%) identified as female. Depression (84%), anxiety (social 61%; generalized 60%), PTSD (62%), and panic attacks (57%) were the most reported mental health diagnoses. Tasks the dogs performed for their owners included: reduction of anxiety through tactile stimulation (94%); nudging/pawing to bring back to the present (71%); interrupting undesirable behavior (51%); constant body contact (50%); deep pressure stimulation (45%) and blocking contact from other people (42%). PAD usage decreased (46%), increased (30%) or did not change (24%) participants' use of psychiatric or other health care services. Decrease in service use was mainly due to reduced suicide attempts, and less requirement for hospitalization and medication; increased use was mainly due to enhanced ability to attend appointments. Results of this study show that PAD owners have differing mental health diagnoses, and their dogs perform different tasks to support them in daily life. Every participant described the relationship with his/her PAD as positive, suggesting that a successful working partnership does not require the dog to have been bred or raised specifically for the role. A better understanding of this population and the person-dog relationship will inform the appropriate choice, training and use of PADs for people living with mental health problems

Infant cortex responds to other humans from shortly after birth

A significant feature of the adult human brain is its ability to selectively process information about conspecifics. Much debate has centred on whether this specialization is primarily a result of phylogenetic adaptation, or whether the brain acquires expertise in processing social stimuli as a result of its being born into an intensely social environment. Here we study the haemodynamic response in cortical areas of newborns (1–5 days old) while they passively viewed dynamic human or mechanical action videos. We observed activation selective to a dynamic face stimulus over bilateral posterior temporal cortex, but no activation in response to a moving human arm. This selective activation to the social stimulus correlated with age in hours over the first few days post partum. Thus, even very limited experience of face-to-face interaction with other humans may be sufficient to elicit social stimulus activation of relevant cortical regions