Session 2-1-E: Betting market efficiency implications of different structures: bookmakers vs. exchanges

Outline (i) Quick definition of market efficiency (ii) Theoretical models lead to general predictions… (iii) ...which lead to specific predictions about betting markets (iv) Results of testing the predictions using real betting market data (v) Implications and conclusio

Well I\u27ll Be Damned - Insights Into Predictive Value of Pedigree Information in Horse Racing

Fundamental form characteristics like how fast a horse ran at its last start, are widely used to help predict the outcome of horse racing events. The exception being in races where horses haven’t previously competed, such as Maiden races, where there is little or no publicly available past performance information. In these types of events bettors need only consider a simplified suite of factors however this is offset by a higher level of uncertainty. This paper examines the inherent information content embedded within a horse’s ancestry and the extent to which this information is discounted in the United Kingdom bookmaker market for two year old races