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The Effects of Monetary Policy "News" and "Surprises"

Author: Fabio Milani
John Treadwell
Publication venue
Publication date
Field of study

There is substantial agreement in the monetary policy literature over the effects of exogenous monetary policy shocks. The shocks that are investigated, however, almost exclusively represent unanticipated changes in policy, which surprise the private sector and which are typically found to have a delayed and sluggish effect on output. In this paper, we estimate a New Keynesian model that incorporates news about future policies to try to disentangle the anticipated and unanticipated components of policy shocks. The paper shows that the conventional estimates confound two distinct effects on output: an effect due to unanticipated or Â“surpriseÂ” shocks, which is smaller and more short-lived than the response usually obtained in the literature, and a large, delayed, and persistent effect due to anticipated policy shocks or "news." News shocks play a larger role in influencing the business cycle than unanticipated policy shocks, although the overall fraction of economic fluctuations that can be attributed to monetary policy remains limited.Anticipated and unanticipated monetary policy shocks; News shocks; New Keynesian model with news shocks; Effects of monetary policy onoutput

Research Papers in Economics

Contractor quality control: A method of construction inspection

Author: Treadwell John Scott
Publication venue: Scholars\u27 Mine
Publication date: 01/01/1971
Field of study

It has become apparent in recent years that the United States Government\u27s construction contract supervision and administration procedures are causing an increase in contractor claims and disputes and that the system itself is becoming prohibitively expensive. To deal with some of these problems, the Department of Defense is attempting to implement a new approach to construction inspection--Contractor Quality control. Under the Contractor Quality Control System the majority of the standard contract inspection and testing responsibilities are placed on the contractor, and the Government relinquishes its traditional step-by-step inspection and testing procedures and withdraws to a position of contract surveillance. The Government\u27s supervision and administration system has evolved through the years to the point where the Government practices preventive inspection rather than merely corrective inspection. The concept of preventive inspection has led the Government to the position of specifying construction methods and procedures in order to prevent failure of the contractor to meet contract standards. While the practice of preventive inspection has resulted in acceptable construction, it has had the undesirable effect of jeopardizing the independent contractor relationship between the Government and the contractor. Under the Contractor Quality Control System the contractor is allowed to fail, but he also has an increase in flexibility and job control and an opportunity for a larger profit margin. Contractor Quality Control offers the Government the chance to retain the independent contractor relationship, to cover a larger dollar volume of work with the same or fewer personnel, to expect fewer claims and, hopefully, to expect that the new system will discourage less competent contractors from bidding. This thesis examines inspection during the current transition from the traditional Government methods, as practiced by the U.S. Army and the U.S. Navy, to the new system of Contractor Quality control. The thesis points out possible danger points, cites successes and failures to date, and suggests future improvements for a more effective system --Abstract, pages ii-iii

Missouri University of Science and Technology (Missouri S&T): Scholars' Mine