Public policy and some-day smoking among adults

While much is known about the impact of public policy on current cigarette smoking among adults, very little is known about the determinants of some-day smoking. This paper investigates the impact of cigarette prices, clean indoor air laws, and other socioeconomic factors on adult cigarette demand. Special emphasis is placed on examining the determinants of some-day smoking among adults. The estimates from this study clearly indicate that increasing the price of cigarettes, will decrease the number of people who currently smoke, will decrease the number of every-day smokers, and will decrease the number of cigarettes smoked on average among some-day smokers. Finally, clean indoor air laws are found to have a limited impact on current and some-day smoking.policy, price, smoking, some-day

The Transition to Smoking Cessation: Evidence from Multiple Failure Duration Analysis

While much is known about the impacts prices and tobacco control policies have on smoking participation and frequency of cigarette use, little is known about their impacts on smoking cessation. This paper addresses the dynamics of smoking cessation using longitudinal data on young adults from the Monitoring the Future Surveys. Site-specific prices and several measures of clean indoor air restrictions are added to the survey data. Both parametric and semi-parametric duration models are used to model multiple cessation attempts of young adults. The estimates indicate that increases in the price of cigarettes increase the probability of initial smoking cessation as well as subsequent cessation for those individuals who are unable to remain smoke- free after at least one prior cessation attempt. The average price elasticity of cessation is 0.343. In addition, stronger restrictions on smoking in private worksites and public places other than restaurants increase the probability of young adult smoking cessation.

An Empirical Analysis of Adult Cigarette Demand

This paper examines the magnitude of prediction bias when employing a traditional two-part model of adult cigarette demand. In particular, this paper is the first econometric study to investigate the bias associated with naively assuming that error retransformation is homoscedastic in price. The traditional two part model that is estimated in this paper models the propensity to smoke and the intensity of smoking separately. A modified two-part model that allows the error retransformation to be heteroscedastic in price is estimated. The results from this research imply that the price of cigarettes is a very important determinant of adult cigarette demand. The estimates imply that policies to increase the price of cigarettes will reduce not only prevalence of smoking, but will also decrease the number of cigarettes smoked by smokers. However, the price coefficients obtained from the conditional demand equations are biased away from zero when using the traditional log-transformed dependent variable. The price elasticities are biased. A generalized linear model yielded conditional price elasticities less than one-half of those obtained using the traditional method.

Obesity, Cigarette Prices, Youth Access Laws, and Adolescent Smoking Initiation

This paper examines the role of body weight in smoking initiation by adolescents. We estimate discrete-time hazard models of the decision to initiate smoking using data from the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 Cohort. We control for cigarette prices, tobacco control policies and socioeconomic factors. To avoid problems stemming from the endogeneity of body weight, we also estimate models using the method of instrumental variables. We find clear gender differences. Lighter girls are less likely to initiate smoking, while current weight is uncorrelated with initiation among boys. Among girls, smoking initiation is insensitive to cigarette prices, but among boys smoking initiation is negatively correlated with cigarette prices. These gender-specific differences may help explain the mixed evidence of the impact of price on smoking initiation found in previous literature.

Lighting Up and Slimming Down: The Effects of Body Weight and Cigarette Prices on Adolescent Smoking Initiation

This paper examines the influence of body weight, body image, and cigarette prices in determining adolescent smoking initiation. Adolescents who desire to lose weight may initiate smoking as a method of appetite control. Such behavior may undermine the goals of tobacco control policies that seek to prevent smoking initiation. Using a nationally representative panel of adolescents, we show that smoking initiation is more likely among females who are overweight, who report trying to lose weight, or who describe themselves as overweight. In contrast, neither objective nor subjective measures of weight predict smoking initiation by males. Higher cigarette prices decrease the probability of smoking initiation among males but have no impact on female smoking initiation. These gender-specific differences may help explain the mixed and inconclusive evidence of the impact of price on smoking initiation found in previous literature

Even For Teenagers, Money Does Not Grow on Trees: Teenage Substance Use and Budget Constraints

This paper is about the spending choices of youth, with a particular focus on how the demand for cigarettes, alcohol and marijuana are influenced by changes in the prices of other products. Youth tend to have small incomes and limited wants, with the result that many students spend the bulk of their income on only a few items. Fast food, clothing and entertainment make up the majority of products purchased by teenagers. The hypothesis to be tested in this project is that changes in the prices of the other goods commonly bought by teenagers will affect budget allocations and thereby affect the demand for substances. We estimate own and cross price effects using the prices of cigarettes, alcohol, marijuana and other consumer products including gasoline, clothing, entertainment, and fast food. Income effects are also estimated and show that teens with higher incomes and allowances are more likely to use substances. The policy implications of the results are discussed.

The Impact of Physician Intervention and Tobacco Control Policies on Average Daily Cigarette Consumption Among Adult Smokers

Physicians' advice to stop smoking has been found to increase smoking cessation rates in controlled clinical trials. However, these finding may not be applicable under real world conditions. This paper investigates the impact of physicians' advice and tobacco control policies on conditional cigarette demand among adults employing non-experimental data. Because the data is non-experimental, the variable reflect physician advice to stop smoking and cigarette consumption are likely to be endogenous. We implement a three stage least squares regression technique designed to take account the joint determination of physician advice and cigarette smoking. The results from these models imply that smokers that received advice from their physician to quit smoking will decrease their average daily consumption by between 5-6 cigarettes per day as compared to smoker who do not receive advice. This result implies that physicians' advice is effective in curtailing smoking in real world settings. Other policies that were found to decrease average smoking by smokers include: the real price of cigarettes and clean indoor air laws.

The Demand for Nicotine Replacement Therapies

This paper is the first econometric study to examine the determinants of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) demand. Pooled cross-sectional time-series scanner-based data for 50 major metropolitan markets in the United States covering the period between the second quarter 1996 and the third quarter 1999 are used in the analysis. Fixed-effects modeling is employed to assess the impact of NRT prices, cigarette prices, and other determinants on NRT demand. The estimates indicate that decreases in the price of NRT and increases in the price of cigarettes would lead to substantial increases in per-capita sales of NRT products. The average own-price elasticity of demand for Nicoderm CQ, Nicorette, and Nicotrol is -1.4, -1.5, and -1.1 respectively. The average cross-price elasticity of demand for Nicoderm CQ and Nicorette is 0.68 and 0.81 respectively.

Determinants of Smoking Cessation: An Analysis of Young Adult Men and Women

Substantial econometric efforts have been devoted to examining the impacts prices and tobacco control policies have on smoking propensity and intensity. However, little is known about the effects prices, smoking restrictions, and other influences have on smoking cessation. This paper uses longitudinal data from the Monitoring the Future Surveys, augmented with cigarette price and policy-related measures to estimate smoking cessation equations for young adult males and females separately. The estimates clearly indicate that increases in cigarette prices would lead a significant number of young adults to quit smoking. In addition, policies restricting smoking in private worksites increase the probability of smoking cessation among employed young adult females.

Effects of Price and Access Laws on Teenage Smoking Initiation: A National Longitudinal Analysis

Over the past three decades a significant amount of economic research has established that increasing cigarette prices reduces cigarette smoking among both adults and adolescents. The consensus estimates for the price elasticity of adult demand from these studies fall in a narrow range of 0.3 to 0.5, suggesting that a 10% increase in the price of cigarettes would decrease adult consumption by 3%-5%. A smaller literature on youth responsiveness to cigarette prices has also emerged. A majority of these studies concluded that youth are up to three times as responsive to price as are adults. Only four econometric studies have attempted to model youth and young adult smoking initiation decisions. All four studies concluded that cigarette prices (or cigarette excise taxes) are insignificant determinants of smoking initiation. This study addresses the limitations of the previous studies on smoking initiation and examines the impact of cigarette prices and youth access laws on adolescent smoking initiation. Nationally representative longitudinal surveys of 8th and 10th graders as part of the Monitoring the Future project are employed in the analysis. State-specific prices and several measures of youth access restrictions are added to the survey data. Discrete-time hazard methods are used to model the probability of initiation. Contradicting the results of the four previous studies on smoking initiation, the results of this study clearly indicate that increases in the price of cigarettes would significantly reduce the number of adolescents who start smoking. The results are mixed with respect to youth access restrictions.