Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin : Volume XVI : Survival and Transportation Effects for Migrating Snake River Hatchery Chinook Salmon and Steelhead: Historical Estimates from 1996-2003.

In 2005, the University of Washington developed a new statistical model to analyze the combined juvenile and adult detection histories of PIT-tagged salmon migrating through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). This model, implemented by software Program ROSTER (River-Ocean Survival and Transportation Effects Routine), has been used to estimate survival and transportation effects on large temporal and spatial scales for PIT-tagged hatchery spring and summer Chinook salmon and steelhead released in the Snake River Basin from 1996 to 2003. Those results are reported here. Annual estimates of the smolt-to-adult return ratio (SAR), juvenile inriver survival from Lower Granite to Bonneville, the ocean return probability from Bonneville to Bonneville, and adult upriver survival from Bonneville to Lower Granite are reported. Annual estimates of transport-inriver (T/I) ratios and differential post-Bonneville mortality (D) are reported on both a systemwide basis, incorporating all transport dams analyzed, and a dam-specific basis. Transportation effects are estimated only for dams where at least 5,000 tagged smolts were transported from a given upstream release group. Because few tagged hatchery steelhead were transported in these years, no transportation effects are estimated for steelhead. Performance measures include age-1-ocean adult returns for steelhead, but not for Chinook salmon. Annual estimates of SAR from Lower Granite back to Lower Granite averaged 0.71% with a standard error (SE) of 0.18% for spring Chinook salmon from the Snake River Basin for tagged groups released from 1996 through 2003, omitting age-1-ocean (jack) returns. For summer Chinook salmon from the Snake River Basin, the estimates of annual SAR averaged 1.15% (SE=0.31%). Only for the release years 1999 and 2000 did the Chinook SAR approach the target value of 2%, identified by the NPCC as the minimum SAR necessary for recovery. Annual estimates of SAR for hatchery steelhead from the Snake River Basin averaged 0.45% (SE=0.11%), including age-1-ocean returns, for release years 1996 through 2003. For release years when the ocean return probability from Bonneville back to Bonneville could be estimated (i.e., 1999 through 2003), it was estimated that on average approximately 86% of the total integrated mortality for nontransported, tagged hatchery spring and summer Chinook, and 74% for steelhead, occurred during the ocean life stage (i.e., from Bonneville to Bonneville). This suggests that additional monitoring and research efforts should include the ocean and estuary environment. Annual estimates of the systemwide T/I are weighted averages of the dam-specific T/I ratios for each transport dam (with {ge} 5,000 tagged fish transported), weighted by the probabilities of being transported at each dam. The systemwide T/I compares the observed SAR under the existing transportation system with the expected SAR if the transportation system had not been operated. Estimates of 1.0 indicate that the systemwide transportation program has no effect on SAR, while estimates > 1.0 indicate that the transportation program increases SAR. Excluding the 2001 release group, the geometric mean of the systemwide T/I estimates for hatchery spring Chinook salmon from the Snake River Basin was 1.15 (SE=0.03) for release years 1997 through 2003. The geometric mean of the systemwide T/I estimates for hatchery summer Chinook salmon from the Snake River Basin was 1.28 (SE=0.13) for release years 1997 through 2000 and 2003. Estimates were much higher for the 2001 release groups. These estimates reflect transportation from Lower Granite and/or Little Goose for most release years, depending on the number of tagged smolts actually transported at each dam during each release year. Differential post-Bonneville mortality (D) is the ratio of post-Bonneville survival to Lower Granite Dam of transported fish to that of nontransported ('inriver') fish. Excluding the 2001 release year, the geometric mean of the D estimates for hatchery spring Chinook salmon from the Snake River Basin was 1.00 (SE=0.09) for release years 1997 through 2003. For hatchery summer Chinook salmon from the Snake River Basin, the geometric mean of the D estimates was 1.32 (SE=0.27) for release years 1997 through 2000 and 2003. These estimates reflect transportation from Lower Granite and/or Little Goose, depending on the number of tagged smolts actually transported at each dam during each release year. Approximately half the point estimates of D for both spring and summer Chinook salmon were 1.0 or greater, indicating that for those release groups, transported fish did not have lower ocean and adult survival than nontransported fish. For those years with estimates of D < 1.0, the systemwide T/I estimates were always {ge} 1.0, indicating that despite lower ocean and adult survival of transported fish, transportation did not lower SAR overall

Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin : Evaluating Wetland Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary using Hydroacoustic Telemetry Arrays to Estimate Movement, Survival, and Residence Times of Juvenile Salmonids, Volume XXII (22).

Wetlands in the Columbia River estuary are actively being restored by reconnecting these habitats to the estuary, making more wetland habitats available to rearing and migrating juvenile salmon. Concurrently, thousands of acoustically tagged juvenile salmonids are released into the Columbia River to estimate their survival as they migrate through the estuary. Here, we develop a release-recapture model that makes use of these tagged fish to measure the success of wetland restoration projects in terms of their contribution to populations of juvenile salmon. Specifically, our model estimates the fraction of the population that enter the wetland, survival within the wetland, and the mean residence time of fish within the wetland. Furthermore, survival in mainstem Columbia River downstream of the wetland can be compared between fish that remained the mainstem and entered the wetland. These conditional survival estimates provide a means of testing whether the wetland improves the subsequent survival of juvenile salmon by fostering growth or improving their condition. Implementing such a study requires little additional cost because it takes advantage of fish already released to estimate survival through the estuary. Thus, such a study extracts the maximum information at minimum cost from research projects that typically cost millions of dollars annually

Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin : Volume XV : Evaluation of the 2007 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild and Hatchery-Reared Salmon and Steelhead Smolts to Rock Island, Lower Granite, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams using Program RealTime.

Program RealTime provided monitoring and forecasting of the 2007 inseason outmigrations via the internet for 26 PIT-tagged stocks of wild ESU Chinook salmon and steelhead to Lower Granite and/or McNary dams, one PIT-tagged hatchery-reared ESU of sockeye salmon to Lower Granite Dam, one PIT-tagged wild stock of sockeye salmon to McNary Dam, and 20 passage-indexed runs-at-large, five each to Rock Island, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville dams. Nineteen stocks are of wild yearling Chinook salmon which were captured, PIT-tagged, and released at sites above Lower Granite Dam in 2007 and have at least one year's historical migration data previous to the 2007 migration. These stocks originate in 19 tributaries of the Salmon, Grande Ronde and Clearwater Rivers, all tributaries to the Snake River, and are subsequently detected through tag identification and monitored at Lower Granite Dam. Seven wild PIT-tagged runs-at-large of Snake or Upper Columbia River ESU salmon and steelhead were monitored at McNary Dam. Three wild PIT-tagged runs-at-large were monitored at Lower Granite Dam, consisting of the yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon and the steelhead runs. The hatchery-reared PIT-tagged sockeye salmon stock from Redfish Lake was monitored outmigrating through Lower Granite Dam. Passage-indexed stocks (stocks monitored by FPC passage indices) included combined wild and hatchery runs-at-large of subyearling and yearling Chinook, coho, and sockeye salmon, and steelhead forecasted to Rock Island, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville dams

Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin : Volume XVIII: Survival and Transportation Effects of Migrating Snake River Wild Chinook Salmon and Steelhead: Historical Estimates From 1996-2004 and Comparison to Hatchery Results. Draft.

The combined juvenile and adult detection histories of PIT-tagged wild salmonids migrating through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) were analyzed using the ROSTER (River-Ocean Survival and Transportation Effects Routine) statistical release-recapture model. This model, implemented by software Program ROSTER, was used to estimate survival on large temporal and spatial scales for PIT-tagged wild spring and summer Chinook salmon and steelhead released in the Snake River Basin upstream of Lower Granite Dam from 1996 to 2004. In addition, annual results from wild salmonids were compared with results from hatchery salmonids, which were presented in a previous report in this series (Buchanan, R. A., Skalski, J. R., Lady, J. L., Westhagen, P., Griswold, J., and Smith, S. 2007, 'Survival and Transportation Effects for Migrating Snake River Hatchery Chinook Salmon and Steelhead: Historical Estimates from 1996-2003', Technical report, Bonneville Power Administration, Project 1991-051-00). These results are reported here. Annual estimates of the smolt-to-adult return ratio (SAR), juvenile inriver survival from Lower Granite to Bonneville, the ocean return probability from Bonneville to Bonneville, and adult upriver survival from Bonneville to Lower Granite are reported. Annual estimates of transport-inriver (T/I) ratios and differential post-Bonneville mortality (D) are reported on a dam-specific basis for release years with sufficient numbers of wild PIT-tagged smolts transported. Transportation effects are estimated only for dams where at least 1,000 tagged wild smolts were transported from a given upstream release group. Because few wild Chinook salmon and steelhead tagged upstream of Lower Granite Dam were transported before the 2003 release year, T/I and D were estimated only for the 2003 and 2004 release years. Performance measures include age-1-ocean adult returns for steelhead, but not for Chinook salmon. Spring and summer Chinook salmon release groups were pooled across the entire Snake River Basin upstream of Lower Granite Dam for this report. Annual estimates of SAR from Lower Granite back to Lower Granite averaged 0.92% with an estimated standard error (dSE) of 0.25% for wild spring and summer Chinook salmon for tagged groups released from 1996 through 2004, omitting age-1-ocean (jack) returns. Only for the 1999 and 2000 release years did the wild Chinook SAR approach the target value of 2%, identified by the NPCC as the minimum SAR necessary for recovery. Annual estimates of SAR for wild steelhead from the Snake River Basin averaged 0.63% (dSE = 0.15%), including age-1-ocean returns, for release years 1996 through 2004. For release years when the ocean return probability from Bonneville back to Bonneville could be estimated (i.e., 1999 through 2004), it was estimated that on average approximately 83% of the total integrated mortality for nontransported, tagged wild spring and summer Chinook, and 78% for steelhead (omitting the 2001 release year), occurred during the ocean life stage (i.e., from Bonneville to Bonneville). This suggests that additional monitoring and research efforts should include the ocean and estuary environment. Annual estimates of the dam-specific T/I for Lower Granite Dam were available for the 2003 and 2004 release years for both wild Chinook salmon and wild steelhead. The estimated T/I for Lower Granite was significantly > 1.0 for Chinook in 2004 (P < 0.0001) and for steelhead in both 2003 (P < 0.0001) and 2004 (P < 0.0001), indicating that for these release years, wild fish transported at Lower Granite returned there in higher proportions than fish that were returned to the river at Lower Granite, or that passed Lower Granite without detection as juveniles. Annual estimates of the dam-specific T/I for Little Goose Dam were available for wild Chinook salmon for both 2003 and 2004. The estimated T/I for Little Goose was significantly > 1.0 for wild Chinook in 2004 (P = 0.0024), but not in 2003 (P = 0.1554). Differential post-Bonneville mortality (D) is the ratio of post-Bonneville survival to Lower Granite Dam of transported fish to that of nontransported ('inriver') fish. Estimates of D were available for transportation from Lower Granite and Little Goose dams in 2003 and 2004 for wild Chinook, and from Lower Granite Dam in 2003 and 2004 for wild steelhead. Point estimates ranged from 0.74 (dSE = 0.29) for transportation of wild Chinook salmon from Lower Granite Dam in 2003 to 1.91 (dSE = 0.61) for transportation of wild steelhead from Lower Granite Dam in 2003. Small transport groups resulted in high uncertainty on the point estimates, and only for 2003 steelhead transported from Lower Granite Dam did transported fish have significantly greater post-Bonneville survival than nontransported fish (P = 0.0213)

Estimated Entrainment of Dungeness Crab During Dredging For The Columbia River Channel Improvement Project

The studies reported here focus on issues regarding the entrainment of Dungeness crab related to the proposed Columbia River Channel Improvement Project and provided direct measurements of crab entrainment rates at three locations (Desdomona Shoals, Upper Sands, and Miller Sands) from RM4 to RM24 during summer 2002. Entrainment rates for all age classes of crabs ranged from zero at Miller Sands to 0.224 crabs per cy at Desdemona Shoals in June 2002. The overall entrainment rate at Desdomona Shoals in September was 0.120 crabs per cy. A modified Dredge Impact Model (DIM) used the summer 2002 entrainment rates to project crab entrainment and adult equivalent loss and loss to the fishery for the Channel Improvement Project. To improve the projections, entrainment data from Flavel Bar is needed. The literature, analyses of salinity intrusion scenarios, and the summer 2002 site-specific data on entrainment and salinity all indicate that bottom salinity influences crab distribution and entrainment, especially at lower salinities. It is now clear from field measurements of entrainment rates and salinity during a period of low river flow (90-150 Kcfs) and high salinity intrusion that entrainment rates are zero where bottom salinity is less than 16 o/oo most of the time. Further, entrainment rates of 2+ and older crab fall with decreasing salinity in a clear and consistent manner. More elaboration of the crab distribution- salinity model, especially concerning salinity and the movements of 1+ crab, is needed

Hydroacoustic Evaluation of Juvenile Salmonid Passage at The Dalles Dam Spillway, 2006

The objective of this study was to determine detailed vertical, horizontal, intensive, and diel distributions of juvenile salmonid passage at the spillway at The Dalles Dam from April 12 to July16, 2006. These data are being applied in the Spillway Improvements Program to position release pipes for direct injury and mortality studies and to provide baseline data for assessment of the vortex suppression devices scheduled for deployment in 2007. We estimated fish distributions from hydroacoustic data collected with split-beam transducers arrayed across Bays 1 through 9 and 14. Spill at ~20 kcfs per bay was bulked at Bays 1-6, although the other bays were opened at times during the study to maintain a 40% spill percentage out of total project discharge. The vertical distribution of fish was skewed toward the surface during spring, but during summer, passage peaked at 2-3 m above the spillway ogee. Fish passage rates (number per hour) and fish densities (number per kcfs) were highest at Bay 6, followed by passage at Bay 5. This result comports with spillway horizontal distribution data from radio telemetry and hydroacoustic studies in 2004. The vertical and horizontal distribution of fish passage at bays 5 and 6 was much more variable during spring than summer and more variable at bay 5 than bay 6. Diel distribution data revealed that fish passage was highest during 0600-0700 h in spring; otherwise passage was reasonably uniform on a diel basis. This study substantiates the purpose of the spillway vortex suppression device to re-distribute downstream migrants away from Bay 6 toward Bays 1-5

Comparison of Statistical Population Reconstruction Using Full and Pooled Adult Age-Class Data

BACKGROUND: Age-at-harvest data are among the most commonly collected, yet neglected, demographic data gathered by wildlife agencies. Statistical population construction techniques can use this information to estimate the abundance of wild populations over wide geographic areas and concurrently estimate recruitment, harvest, and natural survival rates. Although current reconstruction techniques use full age-class data (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, … years), it is not always possible to determine an animal's age due to inaccuracy of the methods, expense, and logistics of sample collection. The ability to inventory wild populations would be greatly expanded if pooled adult age-class data (e.g., 0.5, 1.5, 2.5+ years) could be successfully used in statistical population reconstruction. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigated the performance of statistical population reconstruction models developed to analyze full age-class and pooled adult age-class data. We performed Monte Carlo simulations using a stochastic version of a Leslie matrix model, which generated data over a wide range of abundance levels, harvest rates, and natural survival probabilities, representing medium-to-big game species. Results of full age-class and pooled adult age-class population reconstructions were compared for accuracy and precision. No discernible difference in accuracy was detected, but precision was slightly reduced when using the pooled adult age-class reconstruction. On average, the coefficient of variation (i.e., SE(θ)/θ) increased by 0.059 when the adult age-class data were pooled prior to analyses. The analyses and maximum likelihood model for pooled adult age-class reconstruction are illustrated for a black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus) population in Washington State. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Inventorying wild populations is one of the greatest challenges of wildlife agencies. These new statistical population reconstruction models should expand the demographic capabilities of wildlife agencies that have already collected pooled adult age-class data or are seeking a cost-effective method for monitoring the status and trends of our wild resources

Preliminary Assessment of Potential Impacts to Dungeness Crabs from Disposal of Dredged Materials from the Columbia River

Dredging of the Columbia River navigation channel has raised concerns about dredging-related impacts on Dungeness crabs (Cancer magister). The overall objectives of this effort are to synthesize what is known about disposal effects on Dungeness crabs (Phase 1) and to offer approaches to quantify the effects, including approaches to gain a population-level perspective on any effects found in subsequent studies (Phase 2). This report documents Phase 1, which included (1) development of a conceptual model to integrate knowledge about crab biology and the physical processes occurring during disposal, (2) application of physics-based numerical modeling of the disposal event to understand the physical forces and processes to which a crab might be exposed during disposal, (3) conduct of a vulnerability analysis to identify the potential mechanisms by which crabs may be injured, and (4) recommendations of topics and approaches for future studies to assess the potential population-level effects of disposal on Dungeness crabs. The conceptual model first recognizes that disposal of dredged materials is a physically dynamic process with three aspects: (1) convective descent and bottom encounter, (2) dynamic collapse and spreading, and (3) mounding. Numerical modeling was used to assess the magnitude of the potentially relevant forces and extent of mounding in single disposal events. The modeling outcomes show that predicted impact pressure, shear stress, and mound depth are greatly reduced by discharge in deep water, and somewhat reduced at longer discharge duration. The analysis of numerical modeling results and vulnerabilities indicate that the vulnerability of crabs to compression forces under any of the disposal scenarios is low. For the deep-water disposal scenarios, the maximum forces and mounding do not appear to be sufficiently high enough to warrant concern for surge currents or burial at the depths involved (over 230 ft). For the shallow-water (45 to 65 ft), short-duration disposal scenarios, the shear force and surge currents estimated from the modeling and observed previously in the field at Palos Verdes, California appear to be sufficiently high to mobilize and transport the bottom sediment and at least juvenile crab. Behavioral response to surge currents probably occurs and may reduce the occurrence and extent of movement and any associated impacts. There evidence that burial by dredged materials can effect crab survival, but confounding factors in previous experiments preclude conclusions about thresholds and extent of effects. We recommend that future studies focus on burial effects during shallow water, short duration disposal events and take into account the potential for behavioral responses to mitigate any effects

Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation for the Federal Columbia River Estuary Program

The purpose ofthis document is to describe research, monitoring, and evaluation (RME) for the Federal Columbia River Estuary Program. The intent of this RME effort is to provide data and information to evaluate progress toward meeting program goals and objectives and support decision-making in the Estuary Program. The goal of the Estuary Program is to understand, conserve, and restore the estuary ecosystem to improve the performance of listed salmonid populations. The Estuary Program has five general objectives, designed to fulfill the program goal, as follows. 1. Understand the primary stressors affecting ecosystem controlling factors, such as ocean conditions and invasive species. 2. Conserve and restore factors controlling ecosystem structures and processes, such as hydrodynamics and water quality. 3. Increase the quantity and quality of ecosystem structures, i.e., habitats, juvenile salmonids use during migration through the estuary. 4. Maintain the food web to benefit salmonid performance. 5. Improve salmonid performance in terms of life history diversity, foraging success, growth, and survival. The goal of estuary RME is to provide pertinent and timely research and monitoring information to planners, implementers, and managers of the Estuary Program. In conclusion, the estuary RME effort is designed to meet the research and monitoring needs of the estuary Program using an adaptive management process. Estuary RME's success and usefulness will depend on the actual conduct of adaptive management, as embodied in the objectives, implrementation, data, reporting, and synthesis, evaluation, and decision-making described herein