The importance of economic expectations for retirement entry

This paper analyses how strongly anticipated economic circumstances might impact on individuals retirement decisions. Abstract We estimate hazard rates of retirement entry as a function of the option value of work. The individuals’ expectations about the future economy are incorporated in the option value of work, through which they can impact on the timing of retirement entry. In a scenario where individuals expect a strong upturn, the annual hazard rate of retirement entry (average 8.4%) is reduced by 6.0% or half a percentage point compared to a scenario where they expect a downturn. Had individuals been able to anticipate the Global Financial Crisis, the mere expectation of this downturn would have increased retirement entries by 8.7%

Social Deprivation and Exclusion of Immigrants in Germany

This paper aims at providing empirical evidence on social exclusion of immigrants in Germany. We demonstrate that when using a conventional definition of the social inclusion index typically applied in the literature, immigrants appear to experience a significant degree of social deprivation and exclusion, confirming much of the economic literature examining the economic assimilation of immigrants in Germany. We propose a weighting scheme that weights components of social inclusion by their subjective contribution to an overall measure of life satisfaction.Using this weighting scheme to calculate an index of social inclusion, we find that immigrants are in fact as "included" as Germans. This result is driven strongly by the disproportionately positive socio-demographic characteristics that immigrants possess as measured by the contribution to their life satisfaction.Social Exclusion, International Migration, Integration

Blood Money: Incentives for Violence in NHL Hockey

The level of violence in the National Hockey League (NHL) reached its highest point in 1987 and has reduced somewhat since then, although to levels much larger than before the first team expansions in 1967. Using publicly available information from several databases 1996–2007, the incentives for violence in North American ice hockey are analyzed.We examine the role of penalty minutes and more specifically, fighting, during the regular season in determining wages for professional hockey players and team-level success indicators. There are substantial returns paid not only to goal scoring skills but also to fighting ability, helping teams move higher in the playoffs and showing up as positive wage premia for otherwise observed low-skill wing players. These estimated per-fight premia, depending on fight success ($10,000 to$18,000), are even higher than those for an additional point made. By introducing a “fight fine” of twice the maximum potential gain ($36,000) and adding this amount to salaries paid for the team salary cap (fines would be 6.7% of the team salary cap or the average wage of 2 players), then all involved would have either little or no incentives to allow fighting to continue.Compensating wage differentials, health risk, violence, subjective indicators

Killing them with Kindness: Negative Distributional Externalities of Increasing UI Benefits

Of the many labour market Hartz IV reforms that have been implemented in Germany since 2005, the role of short-term unemployment insurance has not received much attention. In this paper we examine distributional effects of labour earnings and unemployment benefits using simulated increases in unemployment insurance replacement rates or equivalently, increases in the net present value of benefit duration. Starting around an 18%-point increase in the replacement rate, there are significant negative labour supply effects, drawing those employed into unemployment shifting the mass of the earnings distribution to the left. At around a 25%-point increase in the replacement rate, the mass of the distribution shifts right again, as those receiving unemployment benefits simply enjoy an increased transfer. Thus, due to the substantial negative labour supply effects, German economic policy should avoid potentially increasing the UI benefit replacement rate (or equivalently, increasing the benefit duration) in the near future as a response to the worldwide economic crisis.Unemployment, income distribution, labour supply

Smoke Signals: The Intergenerational Transmission of Smoking Behavior

In this paper, we investigate the intergenerational transmission of smoking behavior from parents to their children using data from the German Socio- Economic Panel, surveyed in 1999 including 813 youths aged 16 through 19. We find strong evidence, that parental smoking significantly increases the probability that their children likewise become smokers. Youths living in families with both parents smoking are 3.3 times more likely to smoke themselves, while a smoking father raises the probability by the factor 2.8 and a smoking mother by the factor 2.1. Further, we treat single-parent households separately and control for other socioeconomic factors concerning the youths' smoking decision like household income, educational status and working status. Youths' leisure activities and personal attitudes are taken into consideration to test for determinants influencing youth smoking outside from the family context. Thus policies targeted at reducing juvenile smoking may fail, if parents' behavior is not taken into account.Intergenerational Transmission, Smoking, Family Composition, GSOEP

Social Deprivation and Exclusion of Immigrants in Germany

This paper aims at providing empirical evidence on social exclusion of immigrants in Germany. We demonstrate that when using a conventional definition of the social inclusion index typically applied in the literature, immigrants appear to experience a significant degree of social deprivation and exclusion, confirming much of the economic literature examining the economic assimilation of immigrants in Germany. We propose a weighting scheme that weights components of social inclusion by their subjective contribution to an overall measure of life satisfaction. Using this weighting scheme to calculate an index of social inclusion, we find that immigrants are in fact as "included" as Germans. This result is driven strongly by the disproportionately positive socio- demographic characteristics that immigrants possess as measured by the contribution to their life satisfaction.Social exclusion, international migration, integration

Riding the Transition Roller-Coaster: Flexibility and the Inter-Industry Wage Structure in Russia

This paper examines the changes in the inter-industry wage structure experienced by Russia since 1993, as part of its transition from a plan-based economy to a more \market oriented" structure. Using two Russian household panel data sets, the RLMS and the RUSSET, we _nd that since the transformation process began, the dispersion of inter-industry wage structure has increased. Moreover, Russia exhibits large movements in wage premia, as industries respond to massively changing demand conditions. The issue of wage arrears (unpaid wages or outstanding pay), which a_ects half of all employees, plays an important role in the determination of wages. Studies, which do not account for wage arrears, overestimate the overall inter-industry wage dispersion. Despite movements towards a privatized market economy, we still _nd government ownership and Soviet network e_ects play an important role in determining the wage structure.Inter-Industry Wage Differentials, Transition Economies, Wage Arrears, Networking

PanelWhiz - Efficient Data Extraction of Complex Panel Data Sets: An Example Using the German SOEP

This paper outlines a panel data retrieval program written for Stata/SE 10 or better, which allows easier accessing of complex panel data sets. Using a drop-down menu and mouse click system, the researcher selects variables from any and all available years of a panel study. The data is automatically retrieved and merged to form a "long file", which can be directly used by the Stata panel estimators. The system implements modular data cleaning programs called "plugins". Yearly updates to the data retrievals can be made automatically. Projects can be stored in libraries allowing modular administration and appending. The paper exemplifies the power of PanelWhiz using the example of the German SOEP (German Socio-Economic Panel Study).Panel data, storage, retrieval

Money for Nothing and Your Chips for Free? The Anatomy of the PC Wage Differential

The role of the computer at the workplace is examined in determining the wage structure in Germany. It is shown that the wage premium attributed to using a computer at work using cross-sectional results for 1997 is 7%. To control for unmeasured individual effects, we use a random effects and fixed effects estimator. The coefficient for computer usage at the workplace did NOT remain stable and although just barely significant, was reduced to mere 1% with individual fixed effects. We conclude that there are no computer usage wage differentials worth speaking of, once one controls adequately for unobserved individual heterogeneity.

Nickel and Dimed German Style: The Working Poor in Germany

Using data from the German SOEP, this paper analyses whether there have been (a) any significant changes in poverty rates and poverty intensities before and after the Hartz IV reforms and (b) whether there have been observable changes in the effect of employment in reducing the threat or intensity of poverty. Using multivariate analyses we can find no evidence of increases in poverty rates comparing the time period 2002–2004 with that of 2005–2006. Further we find no change in the effect of employment in reducing the probability and intensity of poverty during this time period. The “working poor” phenomenon in Germany remains relatively small and statistically unchanged by the Hartz reforms.Income distribution, unemployment, poverty