The Effect of Structural Reforms on Productivity and Profitability Enhancing Reallocation: Evidence from Colombia

In the U.S., some sectoral evidence suggests that growth is driven mainly by productivity enhancing reallocation. In countries with greater barriers to entry and imperfect competition, the reallocation process may be inefficient. Therefore, for developing countries, an open question is whether reallocation is productivity enhancing. Using a unique plant-level longitudinal dataset for Colombia for the period 1982-1998 we examine the interaction between market allocation, productivity and profitability. Given the important trade, labor and financial market oriented reforms in Colombia in 1990, we explore whether and how the contribution of reallocation changed. Our data include plant-level quantities and prices. Using plant prices, we propose a sequential methodology to estimate productivity and demand shocks. First, with plant-level physical output data, we estimate total factor productivity (TFP) using downstream demand to instrument for inputs. Then, with plant-level price data, we estimate demand shocks and mark-ups in the inverse-demand equation, using TFP to instrument for output. We characterize the evolution of TFP and demand shock distributions. Market reforms are associated with rising overall productivity that is driven by reallocation away from low- and towards high-productivity businesses; and, the allocation of activity across businesses is less driven by demand factors.

The effects of structural reforms on productivity and profitability enhancing reallocation: Evidence from Colombia

Estimates for the U.S. suggest that at least in some sectors productivity enhancing reallocation is the dominant factor in accounting for producitivity growth. An open question, particularly relevant for developing countries, is whether reallocation is always productivity enhancing. It may be that imperfect competition or other barriers to competitive environments imply that the reallocation process is not fully e?cient in these countries. Using a unique plant-level longitudinal dataset for Colombia for the period 1982-1998, we explore these issues by examining the interaction between market allocation, and productivity and profitability. Moreover, given the important trade, labor and financial market reforms in Colombia during the early 1990's, we explore whether and how the contribution of reallocation changed over the period of study. Our data permit measurement of plant-level quantities and prices. Taking advantage of the rich structure of our price data, we propose a sequential mehodology to estimate productivity and demand shocks at the plant level. First, we estimate total factor productivity (TFP) with plant-level physical output data, where we use downstream demand to instrument inputs. We then turn to estimating demand shocks and mark-ups with plant-level price data, using TFP to instrument for output in the inversedemand equation. We examine the evolution of the distributions of TFP and demand shocks in response to the market reforms in the 1990's. We find that market reforms are associated with rising overall productivity that is largely driven by reallocation away from low- and towards highproductivity businesses. In addition, we find that the allocation of activity across businesses is less driven by demand factors after reforms. We find that the increase in aggregate productivity post-reform is entirely accounted for by the improved allocation of activity.TFP measurement, productivity and demand decompositions, structural reforms

Plant Turnover and Structural Reforms in Colombia

In a healthy economy, plant turnover increases aggregate productivity because efficient producers are more likely to survive. Given high entry and exit rates and the potential importance of turnover in accounting for aggregate productivity, in this paper we examine the determinants of plant exits and then examine how exits and other forms of output reallocation contribute to aggregate productivity. Using a unique plant-level longitudinal data set for Colombia for the period 1982-98, we examine the role of productivity and demand as well as input costs in determining plant exits. Moreover, given the important structural reforms introduced in Colombia during the early 1990s, we explore whether and how plant survival changed after these reforms. Our data permit measurement of plant-level quantities and prices, which allows us to decompose productivity and demand shocks and, in turn, to estimate the effects of these fundamentals on plant exit. We find that higher productivity, higher demand, and lower input prices decrease the probability of plant exit. We also find that the importance of physical efficiency and costs in determining exits increases after the introduction of structural reforms. Finally, a decomposition of aggregate productivity suggests that reallocation through entry and exit is important in accounting for the increase in aggregate productivity after the introduction of structural reforms. Copyright 2006, International Monetary Fund

Factor Adjustments After Deregulation: Panel Evidence from Colombian Plants

We analyze employment and capital adjustments using plant data from the Colombian Annual Manufacturing Survey. We estimate adjustment functions for capital and labor as a non-linear function of the gaps between desired and actual factor levels, allowing for interdependence in adjustments of the two factors. In addition to non-linear employment and capital adjustments in response to market fundamentals, we find that capital shortages reduce hiring and labor surpluses reduce capital shedding. We also find that after factor market deregulation in Colombia in 1991, factor adjustment hazards increased on the job destruction and capital formation margins. Finally, we find that completely eliminating frictions in factor adjustment would yield a substantial increase in aggregate productivity through improved allocative efficiency. Yet, the actual impact of the Colombian deregulation on aggregate productivity through factor adjustment was modest.

Trade Reforms and Market Selection: Evidence from Manufacturing Plants in Colombia

We use plant output and input prices to decompose the profit margin into four parts: productivity, demand shocks, mark-ups and input costs. We find that each of these market fundamentals are important in explaining plant exit. We then use variation across sectors in tariff changes after the Colombian trade reform to assess whether the impact of market fundamentals on plant exit changed with in creased international competition. We find that greater international competition magnifies the impact of productivity, and other market fundamentals, on plant exit. A dynamic simulation that compares the distribution of productivity with and without the trade reform shows that improvements in market selection from trade reform help to weed out the least productive plants and increase average productivity. In addition, we find that trade liberalization increases productivity of incumbent plants and improves the allocation of activity within industries.trade liberalization, plant exit, market selection

Effects of tariffs and real exchange rates on job reallocation: evidence from Latin America

Openness to international competition can lead to enhanced resource allocation in the long-run. While factor reallocation is essential if net benefits are to be derived from trade liberalization, the process generates costs both for transitioning workers and for employers undergoing personnel turnover. Net welfare gains depend on adjustment costs. Understanding of these issues has been hampered by data limitations. In this paper, we overcome some of these limitations by using new, harmonized measures on job creation and destruction for a number of countries in Latin America. We use these new series to investigate the impact of the removal of protectionism on net employment and gross job reallocation in Latin America. We find a robust pattern showing that reductions in tariffs and exchange rate appreciations increase the pace of job reallocation within sectors. We also find, however, some evidence of declining net employment as trade exposure increases. For example, we find some evidence that in the wake of tariff reductions, there is lower net employment growth. Keywords; tariff reduction, currency appreciation, trade exposure, intra-industry reallocation JEL Classification: F160, F310, O240

The effects of regulations and bussiness cycles on temporary contracts, the organization of firms and productivity

In this study, we assess the impact, on workforce contract composition, employment adjustment dynamics and productivity, of a combination of changes in the Colombian labor legislation which increased firm’s ability of using contracts of a temporary nature, and posterior changes that increased the costs associated with longer term contracts. Until 1990, labor regulations in Colombia practically banned the possibility of using fixed-term contracts for horizons of less than one year (see, e.g. Kugler, 2004). The labor market component of a broad package of market reforms adopted at the beginning of the nineties opened the possibility of hiring under fixed term contracts of different types. Some of these contracts not only free employers of potential dismissal costs, but are also subject to reduced, or even zero, non-wage costs. Regulatory changes occurred in the decade that followed further increased incentives to use fixed term contracts.Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS

The effects of regulations and bussiness cycles on temporary contracts, the organization of firms and productivity

In this study, we assess the impact, on workforce contract composition, employment adjustment dynamics and productivity, of a combination of changes in the Colombian labor legislation which increased firm’s ability of using contracts of a temporary nature, and posterior changes that increased the costs associated with longer term contracts. Until 1990, labor regulations in Colombia practically banned the possibility of using fixed-term contracts for horizons of less than one year (see, e.g. Kugler, 2004). The labor market component of a broad package of market reforms adopted at the beginning of the nineties opened the possibility of hiring under fixed term contracts of different types. Some of these contracts not only free employers of potential dismissal costs, but are also subject to reduced, or even zero, non-wage costs. Regulatory changes occurred in the decade that followed further increased incentives to use fixed term contracts.Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS

Trade Reforms and Market Selection: Evidence from Manufacturing Plants in Colombia

We use plant output and input prices to decompose the profit margin into four parts: productivity, demand shocks, mark-ups and input costs. We find that each of these market fundamentals are important in explaining plant exit. We then use variation across sectors in tariff changes after the Colombian trade reform to assess whether the impact of market fundamentals on plant exit changed with increased international competition. We find that greater international competition magnifies the impact of productivity, and other market fundamentals, on plant exit. A dynamic simulation that compares the distribution of productivity with and without the trade reform shows that improvements in market selection from trade reform help to weed out the least productive plants and increase average productivity. In addition, we find that trade liberalization increases productivity of incumbent plants and improves the allocation of activity within industries.

India: The Emerging Global Power

Using China as a benchmark, we assess the prospects and challenges facing India’s rise to global power status. The overall population size, growth and cohort composition favors rapid economic growth. India’s prospects are constrained by the failure to integrate women into the work force and the persistent religiously driven division. Consistent with China’s experience, increasing FDI and economic openness improves economic growth prospects; as would further moves towards a postmaterialist values. Of serious concern for both China and India are environmental challenges. The most prosperous regions will be seriously affected as forced migrations from neighboring even more affected societies increase. Barring unexpected events, India will likely reach parity with the US and China by 2050 and emerge as the dominant global power at the end of this Century